I am willing to give GCT a try here

Online retail is heating up. It's a sector I've been eyeing for my entries in BABA and SE, and so entering GCT gives me even more exposure. If it fails, I am probably a little overexposed, but this risk is calculated. BABA

and SE are in profit and my risk is small in these names, per usual.

A word on the theme: ONLN and CLIX have the two largest allocations of GCT of any ETFs, making those the preferred vessel for analyzing thematic strength. Both showing signs of turning. In my dashboard, online retail is showing relative strength.

Onto GCT specifics:

It's turning up right at the upper part of the weekly cloud, which is right where I'd want to see support hold. It's also breaking out of the base pictured on this chart. Clearing recent highs of 36.5 could make this thing move, or if not, at least help confirm the thesis. The 50-day moving average is at 36ish, which could provide some resistance, though it didn't last year.
Weekly stochastics are turning up from oversold, similar to when it turned in May of 2025.
The weekly MACD histogram is slowing, but a MACD crossover is preferred. In keeping with the strategy of entering early and with tight risk, I am willing to risk a little to give it time to do that.
GCT just recovered the 21ema and 10day sma, both necessary ingredients for a trend to begin.
Finally, per my weekly newsletter analysis, credit conditions were the tiebreaker this week on overall market regime, and they suggest unambiguous risk-on conditions. But we have more practical issues at hand like war and inflation (and the accompanying pressure from 30y yields, so small risk and selective entries gives me enough exposure for upside with very, very little downside. I take lots of small stop-outs, probably too many because it can add up, but here we are.
Entry around 34.8, stop around 32.65 = $2.15 risk per share.

Not

GCT is through resistance at the 50-day, and the real test of strength is if the day closes above it and finds acceptance.

Not

Won't complain about being up 10% already, though it's stalling. What's important is that it's holding onto gains with no giveback.

Not

Many names fail in environments like this one, and GCT is starting to look shaky. Stop is at 36, so either it fails and I leave with a small gain on this or it recovers. Being early as I was has its own risks that extend beyond macro conditions.

İşlem kapandı: durdurma seviyesi

Out for a small gain. Had a nice move on this one, but broader market is not favorable.

Not

This was a great entry and terrible management. Moving my stop is never, ever a good idea and I learn that lesson again.

GatorResearch

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BABA showing signs of life.

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Feragatname

Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, alım satım veya diğer türden tavsiye veya öneriler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Koşulları bölümünde daha fazlasını okuyun.