On the 4-hour chart, Live Cattle has established a clear higher-high/higher-low structure off the late-May/early-June lows near 235, with price reclaiming the 246–248 congestion band that acted as resistance through much of April and May. The most recent 4h swing high sits near 250, and the current pullback has brought price back into the 246–247 shelf — an area that was former resistance turned support, now tested for the first time since the breakout week of June 16. The HTF trend is intact; this is a textbook first retest of a broken level.
On the 1-hour chart, price has been compressing in a tight 246.1–247.4 range over the past three sessions, with Tuesday and Wednesday's bars printing higher lows and small-bodied closes above 246.6. Today's open at 247.4 faded back to 246.85, holding the micro-support shelf. The entry is at the current quote, with the stop placed below the June 24 intraday low of 246.20 and the June 23 range low near 245.80 — set at 245.45 to clear that structure by roughly 0.3× ATR. The target is 249.90, just in front of the May-1/June-22 swing high cluster near 250.00–251.20 — the first major supply zone price must traverse. A close back below 246.20 on an hourly bar would invalidate the retest thesis.
Fundamentally, the backdrop is supportive. The USDA ERS (June 18) raised its 2026 slaughter steer price forecast to $250.16/cwt — almost exactly at the target — validating the structural price level as a fundamental anchor rather than an arbitrary technical projection. Cold storage beef stocks are down 2.6% year-over-year, April marketings fell 10% as packers trimmed kills, and managed money net long positioning remains large at 130,113 contracts with only minor trimming. Cash trade at $258–$265 continues to trade well above nearby futures, maintaining positive basis incentive. The one modest headwind is the downward-sloping forward curve (October at $230.73) and the slight softening in late cash sales to $258–$260, suggesting the market is pricing in eventual supply normalization — but that is a longer-horizon concern and does not impair a near-term retest trade targeting the 250 area.
📍 Entry: 246.850
🛑 Stop: 245.450
🎯 Target: 249.900
⚖️ R:R: 2.18
On the 1-hour chart, price has been compressing in a tight 246.1–247.4 range over the past three sessions, with Tuesday and Wednesday's bars printing higher lows and small-bodied closes above 246.6. Today's open at 247.4 faded back to 246.85, holding the micro-support shelf. The entry is at the current quote, with the stop placed below the June 24 intraday low of 246.20 and the June 23 range low near 245.80 — set at 245.45 to clear that structure by roughly 0.3× ATR. The target is 249.90, just in front of the May-1/June-22 swing high cluster near 250.00–251.20 — the first major supply zone price must traverse. A close back below 246.20 on an hourly bar would invalidate the retest thesis.
Fundamentally, the backdrop is supportive. The USDA ERS (June 18) raised its 2026 slaughter steer price forecast to $250.16/cwt — almost exactly at the target — validating the structural price level as a fundamental anchor rather than an arbitrary technical projection. Cold storage beef stocks are down 2.6% year-over-year, April marketings fell 10% as packers trimmed kills, and managed money net long positioning remains large at 130,113 contracts with only minor trimming. Cash trade at $258–$265 continues to trade well above nearby futures, maintaining positive basis incentive. The one modest headwind is the downward-sloping forward curve (October at $230.73) and the slight softening in late cash sales to $258–$260, suggesting the market is pricing in eventual supply normalization — but that is a longer-horizon concern and does not impair a near-term retest trade targeting the 250 area.
📍 Entry: 246.850
🛑 Stop: 245.450
🎯 Target: 249.900
⚖️ R:R: 2.18
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Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, alım satım veya diğer türden tavsiye veya öneriler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Koşulları bölümünde daha fazlasını okuyun.
monk.trade — Trade setups and market intelligence
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, alım satım veya diğer türden tavsiye veya öneriler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Koşulları bölümünde daha fazlasını okuyun.