Why March 2025 Could See New Highs
What's Happening Right Now?
Everyone is freaking out right now, but this is actually creating one of the best buying opportunities we've seen. Bitcoin is trading around $95,600 after dropping about 24% from its peak of $126,000 in October.
The Fear & Greed Index is at 10 (Extreme Fear) – and you know what they say? Be greedy when others are fearful. But, also, be patient and set limits.
The thing is, most people don't understand the economics behind Bitcoin or how liquidity actually works in crypto markets. We're playing a completely different game than stocks here.
The Real Cost to Mine Bitcoin (And Why It Matters)
Here's where it gets interesting. The big mining operations are producing Bitcoin for around $26,000-$28,000 per coin, while less efficient miners saw costs spike to $114,842 in October 2025... That's a massive range, and it tells you everything about where the floor is.
After the April 2024 halving, it now takes 854,400 kilowatt-hours to mine just one Bitcoin – that's about 81 years of electricity for an average home, just for one coin. That's a fun fact.
No smart miner is going to sell at a loss when they're paying that much for electricity and equipment (GPUs, etc). They'll just hold and wait. This creates natural supply constraints.
The Liquidity Trap
Right now, the market is in what I call a liquidity trap. As Bitcoin crashed from $126K down to where we are now, all the leveraged traders got wiped out. We saw $870 million in Bitcoin ETF outflows in a single day – that's both panic selling and intelligent, planned shorting, not fundamental weakness.
Here's what most people are missing: if Bitcoin drops to around $75K, it's going to unlock massive amounts of liquidity – I'm talking hundreds of millions, possibly billions of dollars that's currently locked up in long positions (Futures).
When those long get liquidated, the shorts will likely reverse their positions, that money floods back into the market and creates a supply shock. Basic economics: limited supply + sudden demand increase = price explosion.
Price Targets & When to Buy
I think we'll see $89K very soon – possibly this week between Monday and Wednesday (November 17-19, 2025). But here's my recommended strategy instead of trying to catch the exact bottom:
First Buy: $89K
Put in about 30% of what you're planning to invest. This is still a good entry even though it's not the absolute bottom.
Second Buy: $80K
Another 35% here. This is where things get really interesting from a risk/reward perspective.
Third Buy: $75K
The final 35%. This is the sweet spot where all that trapped liquidity gets released. Remember, demand increases as the price drops, and miners won't sell below cost. That's your supply shock waiting to happen.
What About MicroStrategy?
MSTR has crashed about 40% and is now trading at only 1.06 times its Bitcoin holdings, down from 2.7 times. The stock is around $200-$237 now, way down from its November 2024 high of $543.
My prediction: MSTR will probably hit the $140-$150 range, maybe even drop to $100-$120 (which is where it found strong support from March to September 2024). If we do see those lower prices, I'm going all-in on
MSTX
shares, not
MSTR
– the 2x leverage structure is better.
The Macro Picture
Fed rate cut expectations dropped from 90% to about 40%, which is why everything's selling off. But this is temporary sentiment, not permanent damage. The infrastructure is still being built, institutions are still coming in, and the fundamentals haven't changed.
Bottom Line
Be patient. Wait for the dips. Bitcoin will likely hit $89K this week, and from there we could see further drops to $80K and $75K. Each level is a buying opportunity. By March 2025, I expect we'll be making new all-time highs.
The key is understanding that crypto operates on different rules than stocks. Liquidity and supply dynamics matter more than anything else right now.
Good luck,
Terrapins
What's Happening Right Now?
Everyone is freaking out right now, but this is actually creating one of the best buying opportunities we've seen. Bitcoin is trading around $95,600 after dropping about 24% from its peak of $126,000 in October.
The Fear & Greed Index is at 10 (Extreme Fear) – and you know what they say? Be greedy when others are fearful. But, also, be patient and set limits.
The thing is, most people don't understand the economics behind Bitcoin or how liquidity actually works in crypto markets. We're playing a completely different game than stocks here.
The Real Cost to Mine Bitcoin (And Why It Matters)
Here's where it gets interesting. The big mining operations are producing Bitcoin for around $26,000-$28,000 per coin, while less efficient miners saw costs spike to $114,842 in October 2025... That's a massive range, and it tells you everything about where the floor is.
After the April 2024 halving, it now takes 854,400 kilowatt-hours to mine just one Bitcoin – that's about 81 years of electricity for an average home, just for one coin. That's a fun fact.
No smart miner is going to sell at a loss when they're paying that much for electricity and equipment (GPUs, etc). They'll just hold and wait. This creates natural supply constraints.
The Liquidity Trap
Right now, the market is in what I call a liquidity trap. As Bitcoin crashed from $126K down to where we are now, all the leveraged traders got wiped out. We saw $870 million in Bitcoin ETF outflows in a single day – that's both panic selling and intelligent, planned shorting, not fundamental weakness.
Here's what most people are missing: if Bitcoin drops to around $75K, it's going to unlock massive amounts of liquidity – I'm talking hundreds of millions, possibly billions of dollars that's currently locked up in long positions (Futures).
When those long get liquidated, the shorts will likely reverse their positions, that money floods back into the market and creates a supply shock. Basic economics: limited supply + sudden demand increase = price explosion.
Price Targets & When to Buy
I think we'll see $89K very soon – possibly this week between Monday and Wednesday (November 17-19, 2025). But here's my recommended strategy instead of trying to catch the exact bottom:
First Buy: $89K
Put in about 30% of what you're planning to invest. This is still a good entry even though it's not the absolute bottom.
Second Buy: $80K
Another 35% here. This is where things get really interesting from a risk/reward perspective.
Third Buy: $75K
The final 35%. This is the sweet spot where all that trapped liquidity gets released. Remember, demand increases as the price drops, and miners won't sell below cost. That's your supply shock waiting to happen.
What About MicroStrategy?
MSTR has crashed about 40% and is now trading at only 1.06 times its Bitcoin holdings, down from 2.7 times. The stock is around $200-$237 now, way down from its November 2024 high of $543.
My prediction: MSTR will probably hit the $140-$150 range, maybe even drop to $100-$120 (which is where it found strong support from March to September 2024). If we do see those lower prices, I'm going all-in on
MSTX
shares, not
MSTR
– the 2x leverage structure is better.
The Macro Picture
Fed rate cut expectations dropped from 90% to about 40%, which is why everything's selling off. But this is temporary sentiment, not permanent damage. The infrastructure is still being built, institutions are still coming in, and the fundamentals haven't changed.
Bottom Line
Be patient. Wait for the dips. Bitcoin will likely hit $89K this week, and from there we could see further drops to $80K and $75K. Each level is a buying opportunity. By March 2025, I expect we'll be making new all-time highs.
The key is understanding that crypto operates on different rules than stocks. Liquidity and supply dynamics matter more than anything else right now.
Good luck,
Terrapins
Not
Forgot to mention that 89K has been achieved.I am still awaiting 80K and 75K as I believe it will still be targeted in one last liquidity sweep.
İşlem aktif
As I had predicted, Bitcoin has swept through 80K, 75K, and touched 70K.Now, we are in the "Cheap" region of Bitcoin and I will be accumulating some MSTR shares every week.
Just in case we do go lower to the "Very Cheap" region of Bitcoin, which would be around the 35K-60K region, I am going to hang onto some money to take advantage of that opportunity to scoop up shares at a price point below $100 per MSTR.
What are you thinking? Do you think Bitcoin will go further down? Let me know in the comments.
Thanks,
Terrapins
Not
We are in the month of June, everything is playing out according to what I have anticipated. I expect two scenarios to play out.Scenario 1:
We reach $50,000 by the end of the crypto summer (end of August) and then from September into December we climb back towards $126,000. Then, in early 2027 (January to March) we will see new highs be obtained.
Scenario 2:
We reach $35,000 by the end of the crypto summer and then from September into February we climb back towards $126,000. Then, by the summer of 2027 (May to July) we will start to see new highs be obtained.
I've attached a chart representing the liquidity levels we anticipate to reach. There's essentially three more levels we can obtain here, prior to us seeing an all-time high past $126,000 for $BTC.
$55,000 is one level that we most definitely will see occur.
$50,000 is my personal lowest low based on the cycle.
If we see $35,000 for
BTC it would not be great for crypto. I believe we would only see this if there was a similar event such as the FTX or Terra/Luna wash out.What do you think? Do you think we'll see a $35,000
BTC? Let me know in the comments.Respectfully,
Terrapins
MetaMask: 0x2f5012c392f776FaCCa52886119420cc8e6d1D73
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MetaMask: 0x2f5012c392f776FaCCa52886119420cc8e6d1D73
İlgili yayınlar
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, alım satım veya diğer türden tavsiye veya öneriler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Koşulları bölümünde daha fazlasını okuyun.