Rheinmetall AG
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Double top formation and falling trend

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RHM has experienced both a significant and a marginal downside breakout from a double top (DT) formation, accompanied by increased volume. The stock has since rebounded, but it remains within a falling trend channel. It is therefore likely that another test and potential breakdown of the neckline of the double top formation will occur. If a significant breakout materializes, the stock could decline to 1125 or lower.

A double top formation is a bearish reversal pattern.

The trend is relatively short-term and is not yet fully reflected in the indicators. However, a negative volume balance and a declining RSI 21 support the bearish trend.

When a stock is in a trend, it tends to remain in that trend until the opposite is proven.

The stock is trading well below the red Ichimoku cloud.

From a technical perspective, the stock is bearish in the medium term, i.e. 1 to 6 months. This analysis is not a long-term forecast.

Fundamental analysts are clearly positive on the stock.

Disclaimer: I do not own the stock directly, but I have exposure through an ETF.

Note: You must conduct your own research and assessment before making any buy or sell decisions.
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RHM still shows strong negative technical momentum.

The stock remains expensively valued, with a P/E of around 95 — even when compared to other defense contractors.

One factor in RHM’s favor is that the company is diversified, although this is also true for other defense companies.

Another positive is a solid and steadily increasing operating cash flow.

As a European, it is of course a plus that RHM is a European company.

However, defense stocks are generally richly valued, and RHM’s price would need to decline significantly before I would consider taking a long position. That said, there may still be opportunities for day trading and swing trading.
Not
As Europe rearms, we need to learn from the war in Ukraine. The next war will not look like previous ones — and that has always been the case throughout history.

You don’t have to watch many recent videos from Ukraine to understand how quickly warfare is evolving. Continuous innovation is essential.

We need large-scale deployment of reconnaissance, attack, and defensive drones, along with soldiers and AI systems capable of operating them effectively.

We also need the capability to neutralize hostile satellites and missiles.

Finally, Europe should stand together and reduce dependence on external arms production. Today’s allies are not guaranteed to remain so in the future.

This has clear implications for how defense companies will need to evolve going forward.

Feragatname

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