█ SETUP
Shiba Inu perp · BITGET:SHIBUSDT.P · 1D · long only.
ALMA Averaging Strategy: ALMA 3 / σ2, SD band 2, min diff 6 bar to add / 1 bar to exit, 25% per bar, up to 4 adds, hard stop −10% from average entry.
Strategy Tester (SHIB 1D):
Win rate 85% · profit factor 6.3 · max drawdown 6%
Avg winning trade +17.0% · avg losing trade −7.9%
Typical hold ~16 bars on winners · 39 trades in sample
Meme-beta sleeve — high WR with winners more than 2× typical loss size
═
█ WHY NOW
Sunday midnight daily bar — fresh 1D ALMA long at 29 Jun 00:00 UTC ~0.000004163 on the 85% WR template.
This is a daily mean-reversion add into the meme complex after a waterfall June — not a social-headline chase. Mark since entry ~+3.7% (early green MTM).
Hard stop zone −10% from fill ~0.000003747. Exits follow Pine ALMA rules or the hard stop — no discretionary TP ladder.
═
█ MACRO
Crypto tape: BTC range-bound into the week — alt memes can outperform on short squeezes when BTC holds, but bleed faster on risk-off days.
Meme sector: SHIB trades as high-beta social liquidity — flows follow BTC stability and retail risk appetite more than fundamentals.
Context: Geopolitical headline week (oil / macro) kept crypto volatile — daily ALMA entries aim for bar-close discipline, not prediction of the next viral catalyst.
Execution is 1D ALMA, not a token roadmap call.
═
█ OUTLOOK
Positive factors
- 85% WR · PF 6.3 · avg win +17.0% vs avg loss −7.9% · ~16 bars — strong tester skew for a meme pair
- Fresh 29 Jun 00:00Z daily entry · early MTM positive
- Daily TF = slower bar clock vs 4H/12H meme scalps — fewer whipsaw exits if BTC range holds
- Hard −10% stop caps nominal script risk per lot
- High avg win vs avg loss supports holding rule exits rather than manual panic on first red day
Negative factors
- Meme beta — correlation to BTC risk-off days remains high; daily bar can gap through a %-stop
- Social/narrative risk: sentiment can flip intraday without a chart signal
- Single-lot start — add grid may engage lower if discount extends
- Past backtest ≠ live perp fills (funding, wick risk on BITGET)
Base case: daily ALMA holds · BTC stable · slow grind toward next ALMA target band if meme complex stays bid.
Bear case: BTC risk-off gap · lose daily ALMA · −10% hard stop toward ~0.00000375.
Shiba Inu perp · BITGET:SHIBUSDT.P · 1D · long only.
ALMA Averaging Strategy: ALMA 3 / σ2, SD band 2, min diff 6 bar to add / 1 bar to exit, 25% per bar, up to 4 adds, hard stop −10% from average entry.
Strategy Tester (SHIB 1D):
Win rate 85% · profit factor 6.3 · max drawdown 6%
Avg winning trade +17.0% · avg losing trade −7.9%
Typical hold ~16 bars on winners · 39 trades in sample
Meme-beta sleeve — high WR with winners more than 2× typical loss size
═
█ WHY NOW
Sunday midnight daily bar — fresh 1D ALMA long at 29 Jun 00:00 UTC ~0.000004163 on the 85% WR template.
This is a daily mean-reversion add into the meme complex after a waterfall June — not a social-headline chase. Mark since entry ~+3.7% (early green MTM).
Hard stop zone −10% from fill ~0.000003747. Exits follow Pine ALMA rules or the hard stop — no discretionary TP ladder.
═
█ MACRO
Crypto tape: BTC range-bound into the week — alt memes can outperform on short squeezes when BTC holds, but bleed faster on risk-off days.
Meme sector: SHIB trades as high-beta social liquidity — flows follow BTC stability and retail risk appetite more than fundamentals.
Context: Geopolitical headline week (oil / macro) kept crypto volatile — daily ALMA entries aim for bar-close discipline, not prediction of the next viral catalyst.
Execution is 1D ALMA, not a token roadmap call.
═
█ OUTLOOK
Positive factors
- 85% WR · PF 6.3 · avg win +17.0% vs avg loss −7.9% · ~16 bars — strong tester skew for a meme pair
- Fresh 29 Jun 00:00Z daily entry · early MTM positive
- Daily TF = slower bar clock vs 4H/12H meme scalps — fewer whipsaw exits if BTC range holds
- Hard −10% stop caps nominal script risk per lot
- High avg win vs avg loss supports holding rule exits rather than manual panic on first red day
Negative factors
- Meme beta — correlation to BTC risk-off days remains high; daily bar can gap through a %-stop
- Social/narrative risk: sentiment can flip intraday without a chart signal
- Single-lot start — add grid may engage lower if discount extends
- Past backtest ≠ live perp fills (funding, wick risk on BITGET)
Base case: daily ALMA holds · BTC stable · slow grind toward next ALMA target band if meme complex stays bid.
Bear case: BTC risk-off gap · lose daily ALMA · −10% hard stop toward ~0.00000375.
BoaBias / Goldfinch_song
Swing trader · bar-close systematic book
800+ TRADES · WR 60% · AVG HOLD 7D · AVG PNL 7% · MAX DD -3.4%
CRYPTO · STOCKS · INDICES · METALS
📈Sharing Ideas · indicators · strategies with honest stats · Educational only NFA
Swing trader · bar-close systematic book
800+ TRADES · WR 60% · AVG HOLD 7D · AVG PNL 7% · MAX DD -3.4%
CRYPTO · STOCKS · INDICES · METALS
📈Sharing Ideas · indicators · strategies with honest stats · Educational only NFA
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, alım satım veya diğer türden tavsiye veya öneriler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Koşulları bölümünde daha fazlasını okuyun.
BoaBias / Goldfinch_song
Swing trader · bar-close systematic book
800+ TRADES · WR 60% · AVG HOLD 7D · AVG PNL 7% · MAX DD -3.4%
CRYPTO · STOCKS · INDICES · METALS
📈Sharing Ideas · indicators · strategies with honest stats · Educational only NFA
Swing trader · bar-close systematic book
800+ TRADES · WR 60% · AVG HOLD 7D · AVG PNL 7% · MAX DD -3.4%
CRYPTO · STOCKS · INDICES · METALS
📈Sharing Ideas · indicators · strategies with honest stats · Educational only NFA
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, alım satım veya diğer türden tavsiye veya öneriler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Koşulları bölümünde daha fazlasını okuyun.