Overview:
Looking at the
SPX weekly chart, a distinct seasonal rhythm emerges across recent years. Beyond the clean rising wedge structure and steady volume accumulation, the calendar footprint shows a clear biannual pullback cycle.
1. The Q1 Anchor Pullback:
Every year since 2022, the first major structural correction initiates during the first quarter:
2023: Early spring dip before the summer rally leg.
2024: Late March pause and quick flush.
2025: Sharp drop down baseline before a full V shaped recovery.
2026: Mid Q1 pullback shaking out weak hands early.
2. The Mid to Late Year Leg:
The second pullback of the annual cycle typically hits around the late July to early Q3 window (seen mid August 22, late July 2023, and July 2024).
The outlier was 2025. Why? Because the early 2025 correction was unusually severe in depth, it displaced the standard Q3 timing and pushed the structural reset dynamic around.
3. Rising Wedge:
Volume: Weekly volume remains elevated inside this rising wedge. This points to active institutional turnover and sector rotation rather than an exhausted, dry liquidity squeeze.
RSI Divergence: Lower highs on the weekly RSI show momentum slowing. However, weekly RSI divergence is notoriously early. With RSI still holding strong near 60, divergence acts as a background context signal rather than an immediate reversal trigger.
Conclusion:
As price trades near channel resistance, history favors respecting the mid year seasonal window while monitoring fast EMA support levels for structural integrity. Not calling for a correction, but caution!
Looking at the
SPX weekly chart, a distinct seasonal rhythm emerges across recent years. Beyond the clean rising wedge structure and steady volume accumulation, the calendar footprint shows a clear biannual pullback cycle.1. The Q1 Anchor Pullback:
Every year since 2022, the first major structural correction initiates during the first quarter:
2023: Early spring dip before the summer rally leg.
2024: Late March pause and quick flush.
2025: Sharp drop down baseline before a full V shaped recovery.
2026: Mid Q1 pullback shaking out weak hands early.
2. The Mid to Late Year Leg:
The second pullback of the annual cycle typically hits around the late July to early Q3 window (seen mid August 22, late July 2023, and July 2024).
The outlier was 2025. Why? Because the early 2025 correction was unusually severe in depth, it displaced the standard Q3 timing and pushed the structural reset dynamic around.
3. Rising Wedge:
Volume: Weekly volume remains elevated inside this rising wedge. This points to active institutional turnover and sector rotation rather than an exhausted, dry liquidity squeeze.
RSI Divergence: Lower highs on the weekly RSI show momentum slowing. However, weekly RSI divergence is notoriously early. With RSI still holding strong near 60, divergence acts as a background context signal rather than an immediate reversal trigger.
Conclusion:
As price trades near channel resistance, history favors respecting the mid year seasonal window while monitoring fast EMA support levels for structural integrity. Not calling for a correction, but caution!
İlgili yayınlar
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, alım satım veya diğer türden tavsiye veya öneriler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Koşulları bölümünde daha fazlasını okuyun.
İlgili yayınlar
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, alım satım veya diğer türden tavsiye veya öneriler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Koşulları bölümünde daha fazlasını okuyun.