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$SPY Daily — May 15, 2026 — Distribution Watch After Parabolic R

Daily — May 15, 2026 — Distribution Watch After Parabolic Run

Setup: Elliott 5-wave completion at $749.50 within ascending trend channel. First material distribution candle today (-1.00%, red after parabolic 6-week +13.6% rally from $660).

Daily structure:
▪ BUY signal April 8 at $685
▪ Wave 1: $685 → $710
▪ Wave 2: $700 retest
▪ Wave 3: $700 → $725
▪ Wave 4: $725 → $722 (May 7-8)
▪ Wave 5: $722 → $749.50 (May 14)
▪ Today: First red daily candle after Wave 5 = distribution confirming

Future Trend Channel context:
▪ Upper channel: ~$770 (extended target if continuation)
▪ Mid channel: $748-750 (just rejected)
▪ Lower channel: $724.87 (immediate support test)
▪ Mean reversion: ~$700 (50-day zone)

Levels:
▪ Bear trigger: Daily close < $738 confirms break
▪ T1: $724.87 (lower channel + Wave 4 origin)
▪ T2: $715 (Wave 2 origin retest)
▪ Stretch: $700-705 (50-day + measured move)
▪ Invalidation: Daily close > $750 = thesis dead, new highs in scope

Multi-timeframe confluence:
▪ Daily EW 5-wave completion
▪ 15m CHoCH at $745.63 yesterday
▪ Today's IWM flow: $8M+ $268P 34DTE bought = small-cap bear stack
▪ Bond rout / 10yr 4.56% pressuring multiples
▪ Friday OpEx + summit-without-breakthrough = macro headwinds

Honest probability:
🟢 Quick recovery to new highs: 25%
🟡 Range $725-748 chop 5-10 sessions: 35%
🔴 T1 hit at $724.87: 30%
🔴 Deeper $710-715: 10%

R:R from $740: T1 (-2.1%) vs $750 stop (+1.4%) = 1.5x
T2 (-3.5%) vs stop = 2.5x — better for swing structure

Watch list, not yet trade. Trigger fires at daily close < $738.

This is the first credible top-call setup since the April low. Doesn't mean it plays out. Means the structure deserves attention.

Process over prediction. Risk-first, always.

Not investment advice.

CEO_of_WaverVanir_Int_LLC

WaverVanir ⚖ Process over prediction.
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Feragatname

Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, alım satım veya diğer türden tavsiye veya öneriler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Koşulları bölümünde daha fazlasını okuyun.

CEO_of_WaverVanir_Int_LLC

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