Timeframe: 15 min
Bias: Long
Structure & Context:
After a sharp selloff into the March 20th low, SPY has been building a recovery structure with higher lows forming on the 15-minute chart. Price swept the previous swing low and reversed aggressively, leaving behind a well-defined demand zone (order block) in the 649–651 area. This zone aligns with the prior accumulation range and has not been retested yet — making it a fresh level of interest.
Why I'm looking long here:
Liquidity sweep — price dipped below the equal lows near 644 before reversing sharply, suggesting sell-side liquidity was grabbed by institutional players.
Bullish displacement — the move off the lows was impulsive with large-bodied candles, indicating genuine buying pressure rather than a dead-cat bounce.
Demand zone confluence — the 649–651 entry zone sits at the origin of the displacement move and overlaps with a prior consolidation range, adding confluence.
Market context — broader indices are stabilizing after the recent pullback, and SPY is holding above key daily support.
Trade Plan:
Entry Zone: 649–651 (on a retest pullback into the demand zone)
Stop Loss: 648 (below the order block low — invalidates the demand zone)
TP1: 660 (prior resistance / supply pocket)
TP2: 668 (next structural resistance level)
TP3: 671 (extended target near the upper range)
Risk-to-Reward:
With entry around 650 and SL at 648, that's roughly 2 points of risk.
TP1 gives ~5:1 R:R
TP2 gives ~9:1 R:R
TP3 gives ~10.5:1 R:R
I'll be scaling out at each target — 50% at TP1, 30% at TP2, and letting the remaining 20% ride to TP3 with stop moved to breakeven after TP1.
Invalidation:
A clean break and close below 648 on the 15-min timeframe invalidates this setup. If price breaks back below the demand zone with volume, I'm flat — no averaging down.
Manage your risk. This is my analysis, not financial advice.
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, alım satım veya diğer türden tavsiye veya öneriler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Koşulları bölümünde daha fazlasını okuyun.
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, alım satım veya diğer türden tavsiye veya öneriler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Koşulları bölümünde daha fazlasını okuyun.