Crude Oil: Wave III?
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the move from the 70.225 low to approximately 96.128 appears to have developed as a complete five-wave Impulse, which can be considered Wave (1) of a higher degree.
The market then entered a corrective phase that appears to have completed around the 77–80 area, with the structure remaining consistent with a Classic Zigzag. From this point, the primary focus shifts toward the developing bullish structure.
The recent advance from the corrective low also appears to have formed an internal five-wave Impulse, strengthening the bullish interpretation.
Aggressive Scenario
Under the first scenario, the recent advance may represent Wave (1) of a larger Wave III, with the current correction developing as Wave (2).
If this interpretation is correct, the market could enter an Expanded Wave Three, where Wave III may extend significantly in both price and momentum.
A break above the Base Channel and the relevant structural resistance would provide the first important confirmation of this scenario.
The current extended target is around 109.722.
However, there is another structural possibility.
The market may develop a nested 1-2, 1-2, 1-2 structure across different degrees within this area. Such a development could require more time to complete and may produce several smaller corrective phases before the larger Wave III begins to accelerate.
Conservative Scenario
The second scenario remains valid.
If the current structure fails to break higher and develops into a deeper correction, the market could still be forming a larger Zigzag.
In that case, the current movement would represent only part of a larger correction, meaning Wave (2) would not yet be complete.
Therefore, as long as price remains above the key invalidation levels, the bullish scenario remains favored. However, a break below 77.715 would provide an important warning that the structure may be changing, while a break below 70.225 would seriously challenge the broader bullish interpretation.
Conclusion
At this stage, the aggressive scenario appears more compelling, because the initial advance from the low has developed as a five-wave Impulse and could be the beginning of a larger Wave III.
However, the market may first develop additional nested 1-2 structures, requiring more time before the primary advance accelerates.
The objective is not to predict the market with certainty, but to identify the structures that remain valid and allow price action to confirm or invalidate them.
If the Base Channel breaks and the bullish structure continues to develop, the probability of the aggressive scenario will increase.
Conversely, a break of the key invalidation levels would shift attention toward the conservative scenario and the possibility of a larger Zigzag.
Ultimately, the structure that the market develops from here will determine the correct scenario.
Price comes first; the wave count comes second.
Patterns whisper. I listen.
— Mr. Nobody 🎧📊
CFDs on Crude Oil (Brent)
4 days ago
Is Wave 3 Beginning, or Is One More Correction Still Ahead?
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the move from the 70.225 low to approximately 96.128 appears to have developed as a complete five-wave Impulse, which can be considered Wave (1) of a higher degree.
The market then entered a corrective phase that appears to have completed around the 77–80 area, with the structure remaining consistent with a Classic Zigzag. From this point, the primary focus shifts toward the developing bullish structure.
The recent advance from the corrective low also appears to have formed an internal five-wave Impulse, strengthening the bullish interpretation.
Aggressive Scenario
Under the first scenario, the recent advance may represent Wave (1) of a larger Wave III, with the current correction developing as Wave (2).
If this interpretation is correct, the market could enter an Expanded Wave Three, where Wave III may extend significantly in both price and momentum.
A break above the Base Channel and the relevant structural resistance would provide the first important confirmation of this scenario.
The current extended target is around 109.722.
However, there is another structural possibility.
The market may develop a nested 1-2, 1-2, 1-2 structure across different degrees within this area. Such a development could require more time to complete and may produce several smaller corrective phases before the larger Wave III begins to accelerate.
Conservative Scenario
The second scenario remains valid.
If the current structure fails to break higher and develops into a deeper correction, the market could still be forming a larger Zigzag.
In that case, the current movement would represent only part of a larger correction, meaning Wave (2) would not yet be complete.
Therefore, as long as price remains above the key invalidation levels, the bullish scenario remains favored. However, a break below 77.715 would provide an important warning that the structure may be changing, while a break below 70.225 would seriously challenge the broader bullish interpretation.
Conclusion
At this stage, the aggressive scenario appears more compelling, because the initial advance from the low has developed as a five-wave Impulse and could be the beginning of a larger Wave III.
However, the market may first develop additional nested 1-2 structures, requiring more time before the primary advance accelerates.
The objective is not to predict the market with certainty, but to identify the structures that remain valid and allow price action to confirm or invalidate them.
If the Base Channel breaks and the bullish structure continues to develop, the probability of the aggressive scenario will increase.
Conversely, a break of the key invalidation levels would shift attention toward the conservative scenario and the possibility of a larger Zigzag.
Ultimately, the structure that the market develops from here will determine the correct scenario.
Price comes first; the wave count comes second.
Patterns whisper. I listen.
— Mr. Nobody 🎧📊
CFDs on Crude Oil (Brent)
4 days ago
Is Wave 3 Beginning, or Is One More Correction Still Ahead?
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Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, alım satım veya diğer türden tavsiye veya öneriler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Koşulları bölümünde daha fazlasını okuyun.
İlgili yayınlar
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, alım satım veya diğer türden tavsiye veya öneriler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Koşulları bölümünde daha fazlasını okuyun.