The Macro Picture 🗺️
UNI has carved out a horizontal range between $3.00 and $4.00 over the past four months, a structural reset that followed the descent from $6.50. Two weeks ago, the read on this chart pointed toward a retest of the ceiling at $4.00–$4.10, and price delivered — pushing back to $4.00 on May 22 before being rejected hard. That second rejection has flipped the playground: the bulls failed to convert the ceiling, the bears took control, and the structure is now bleeding toward the lower boundary. Price sits at $3.05, hovering directly above the Range Floor with RSI cooled from above 75 to the low 40s. The path of least resistance has rotated downward, and the macro floor at $2.90 desperately needs to be tested.
The Setup ⚙️
The Ceiling Defense: The $4.00–$4.15 zone absorbed two sweep attempts in May — the mid-May liquidity grab above $4.10 and the May 22 retest that failed cleanly at $4.00. Bears are defending the ceiling with conviction, and every push higher has arrived on thinner volume and weaker structure.
The Rejection: The decline from $4.00 to $3.05 has been mechanical rather than panicked — a slow bleed that clears out late longs without triggering a violent capitulation. This is the kind of structural drift that typically precedes a final sweep of the macro floor, not a reversal.
The Decision Zone: Price sits inside the $3.00–$3.10 confluence pocket where every April dip found buyers. A clean break below $3.00 opens the path toward $2.90, where the February capitulation low lives. A defended hold here would invalidate the bearish lean and rotate focus back to the range mid at $3.50.
The Roadmap: Primary target sits at $2.90 — the path of least resistance points toward a structural sweep of the macro floor where over-leveraged longs from the April accumulation will be cleared. Invalidation: a sustained daily close above $3.20 would invalidate this bearish thesis and reopen the range with $3.50 as the immediate target.
UNI has carved out a horizontal range between $3.00 and $4.00 over the past four months, a structural reset that followed the descent from $6.50. Two weeks ago, the read on this chart pointed toward a retest of the ceiling at $4.00–$4.10, and price delivered — pushing back to $4.00 on May 22 before being rejected hard. That second rejection has flipped the playground: the bulls failed to convert the ceiling, the bears took control, and the structure is now bleeding toward the lower boundary. Price sits at $3.05, hovering directly above the Range Floor with RSI cooled from above 75 to the low 40s. The path of least resistance has rotated downward, and the macro floor at $2.90 desperately needs to be tested.
The Setup ⚙️
The Ceiling Defense: The $4.00–$4.15 zone absorbed two sweep attempts in May — the mid-May liquidity grab above $4.10 and the May 22 retest that failed cleanly at $4.00. Bears are defending the ceiling with conviction, and every push higher has arrived on thinner volume and weaker structure.
The Rejection: The decline from $4.00 to $3.05 has been mechanical rather than panicked — a slow bleed that clears out late longs without triggering a violent capitulation. This is the kind of structural drift that typically precedes a final sweep of the macro floor, not a reversal.
The Decision Zone: Price sits inside the $3.00–$3.10 confluence pocket where every April dip found buyers. A clean break below $3.00 opens the path toward $2.90, where the February capitulation low lives. A defended hold here would invalidate the bearish lean and rotate focus back to the range mid at $3.50.
The Roadmap: Primary target sits at $2.90 — the path of least resistance points toward a structural sweep of the macro floor where over-leveraged longs from the April accumulation will be cleared. Invalidation: a sustained daily close above $3.20 would invalidate this bearish thesis and reopen the range with $3.50 as the immediate target.
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Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, alım satım veya diğer türden tavsiye veya öneriler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Koşulları bölümünde daha fazlasını okuyun.
📈 Stop guessing your settings — backtest & optimize with QuantPilot
🎁 Free to start
🎁 Free to start
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, alım satım veya diğer türden tavsiye veya öneriler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Koşulları bölümünde daha fazlasını okuyun.