Thesis
UPS is breaking out from a multi-month consolidation and transitioning into an impulsive Wave 3 structure, supported by improving price action and strong income characteristics.
Context
- Weekly timeframe
- Prolonged corrective phase followed by tightening consolidation
- Price has recently reclaimed key moving averages
- Dividend yield remains elevated, supporting longer-term positioning
What I see
- Price has broken above the 50-week moving average
- Psychological resistance at the $100 level has been cleared
- The upper boundary of the descending wedge has been breached
- Structure is consistent with the early stages of a Wave 3 advance
What matters now
- Holding above the $100 breakout zone is key to maintaining bullish structure
- Follow-through should remain controlled rather than impulsive, consistent withUPS historical behavior
- Failure to hold the breakout would likely result in consolidation rather than trend failure
Buy / Accumulation zone
- Retests of the breakout area above $100 remain the primary zone of interest
- Risk is defined against the former wedge resistance
Targets
- Wave 3 reference aligns with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension near the $120 area
- Longer-term structure remains capped by the 200-week moving average overhead
Risk / Invalidation
- A sustained move back below the $100 level would weaken the breakout thesis
UPS is breaking out from a multi-month consolidation and transitioning into an impulsive Wave 3 structure, supported by improving price action and strong income characteristics.Context
- Weekly timeframe
- Prolonged corrective phase followed by tightening consolidation
- Price has recently reclaimed key moving averages
- Dividend yield remains elevated, supporting longer-term positioning
What I see
- Price has broken above the 50-week moving average
- Psychological resistance at the $100 level has been cleared
- The upper boundary of the descending wedge has been breached
- Structure is consistent with the early stages of a Wave 3 advance
What matters now
- Holding above the $100 breakout zone is key to maintaining bullish structure
- Follow-through should remain controlled rather than impulsive, consistent with
UPS historical behavior- Failure to hold the breakout would likely result in consolidation rather than trend failure
Buy / Accumulation zone
- Retests of the breakout area above $100 remain the primary zone of interest
- Risk is defined against the former wedge resistance
Targets
- Wave 3 reference aligns with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension near the $120 area
- Longer-term structure remains capped by the 200-week moving average overhead
Risk / Invalidation
- A sustained move back below the $100 level would weaken the breakout thesis
Long term investor. Open portfolio and full thesis on eToro: etoro.com/people/maratteo
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, alım satım veya diğer türden tavsiye veya öneriler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Koşulları bölümünde daha fazlasını okuyun.
Long term investor. Open portfolio and full thesis on eToro: etoro.com/people/maratteo
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, alım satım veya diğer türden tavsiye veya öneriler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Koşulları bölümünde daha fazlasını okuyun.