Güncellendi

Turning Point?

It might be bit early to call the end of bullish rally since late December 2018. But we could certainly have a count that shows wave (C) of {B} has reached it's peak.

Not

But the above count does not necessarily mean the start of the multi months bear market, here is an alternative count

Not

possible Long-term wave count

Not

Divergence between RSI & Price, but price is still trading above the blue up trend line

Not

short-term count

Not

any push above 64.72 would argue either wave 4 or wave 5 is under way

Not

break below the blue wave {i} low at 60.04 would indicate wave {iii} decline is under way

Not

there are two possible bearish counts: either 1-2 or 1-2 plus {i}-{ii}

Not

The '1-2' scenario also has two possible counts
flat {b} of 2

triangle {b} of 2

Not

break below 62.09 ( end of wave (i) of {c} of 2) would indicate blue wave {c} is done

Not

The '1-2 plus {i}-{ii}' scenario

Not

also notice that price has failed number of times to climb back above the uptrend line

Not

Therefore I think it's less likely to see another wave 5 of (C). A solid close below $60.02 (6 May low) would confirm the above bearish counts.

Not

is wave 3 ready to explode?

Not

Short-term count

Not

daily chart

Not

we could also assume the 1-2 is one degree higher and count the structure as follows

Not

possible short-term counts:
either

Not

alternative count

Not

wave {iv} under way?

Not

wave (iv) could be a triangle

Not

possible short-term counts:
wave 3 done ( or if 1-2 = (1)-(2), then 3 = 1 of (3) )

Not

or wave (i)-(ii) of {v}

Not

immediate break above end of wave {iv} at $53.36 would eliminate the above (i)-(ii) scenario

Not

wave 4 or wave 2 of (3)

Not

triangle

or flat?

Not

triangle

or flat

Not

{a}-{b}-{c} flat with a diagonal wave {c}?

Not

or an impulse wave {c}

Not

possible short-term count

Not

possible short-term count

Not

either way

Not

let's see if guppy ema could trigger the bearish signal

Not

a solid close below wave (iv) low at $57.73 would also argue wave 2 has reached it's peak

Not

break below wave {a}(of 2) high at $54.80 would confirm the above bearish count

Not

possible short-term count

Not

key resistance at $58.32 as wave iv should not breach the end of wave i

Not

possible short-term counts

Not

note the rally from recent low at 56.03 is contained within a parallel channel

Not

triple zigzag?

Not

Need to see an impulsive decline to break below the end of wave x at 57.30

Not

alternative count

Not

possible short-term count

Not

possible short-term count

Not

either pink A-B-C complete (Y) or grey (1)-(2) then {i}-{ii}

Not

Note on 11 July, i assumed the following two scenarios:
Bullish A-B-C for wave (Y)

Bearish (1)-(2)

Not

the bullish count is no longer valid, simply because wave B of a zigzag can never move beyond the start of wave A

Not

possible short term counts

Not

bearish green {i}-{ii}-(i)-(ii)
OR
bullish grey A-B-C flat for wave (2)

Not

no change

Not

Complex flat for wave (2)

Simple flat for wave (2)

Not

OR even a more complex correction for wave (2) , e.g. double three combination where wave Y is a triangle

Not

Flat

or Combination

Not

there are some bullish possibilities

Not

medium term expectations

wsbza

'When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable must be the truth.'

Email：info@ewc.space

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The start of a long-term bear?

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Feragatname

Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, alım satım veya diğer türden tavsiye veya öneriler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Koşulları bölümünde daha fazlasını okuyun.

wsbza

'When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable must be the truth.'

Email：info@ewc.space