Macro theme:
- Headlines this Jan are dominated by geopolitical friction, specifically the US-Eurozone trade tensions over Greenland, painting a picture of imminent fragility. However, a rigorous look at the latest data reveals a stark disconnect between news-flow and economic reality.
- While the market frets over potential tariff wars, the fundamental macro backdrop has quietly settled into a "Goldilocks" zone. Despite the alarming rhetoric, the data points to a resumption of steady global GDP growth and continued disinflation in 2026.
- We are witnessing a classic divergence between perceived risk and actual economic health.
. Growth is Robust: Far from a recession, Oxford Economics has actually raised its 2026 US GDP forecast to 2.8%, the top end of the forecaster range, driven by AI-related investment and productivity gains.
. The "Worst-Case" isn't Fatal: Even if the US-Eurozone trade dispute escalates to a full "trade war" (currently a 20% probability), modelling suggests a hit to US GDP of only 0.5%. The economy would remain resilient, with growth at ~2.3%.
- Credit Conditions are Green: The proprietary credit conditions index has turned positive for the first time since late 2021, signaling ample liquidity.
- For asset allocators, retrenching into cash due to headline fear is likely over cautious. The strategy now requires precision, not retreat.
Technical approach:
- USTEC is consolidating within a broader range. The index bounced off EMA78 on retest and closed above EMA21. The index is still in a sideways phase captured by a Symmetrical Triangle pattern, awaiting an apparent breakout to determine the next trend.
- If USTEC breaches above the Symmetrical Triangle and the resistance at 26100, the index may surge to test the 100% Fibonacci Extension at 26620.
- On the contrary, remaining below 26100 may prompt a retreat toward the support at 25150.
Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
- Headlines this Jan are dominated by geopolitical friction, specifically the US-Eurozone trade tensions over Greenland, painting a picture of imminent fragility. However, a rigorous look at the latest data reveals a stark disconnect between news-flow and economic reality.
- While the market frets over potential tariff wars, the fundamental macro backdrop has quietly settled into a "Goldilocks" zone. Despite the alarming rhetoric, the data points to a resumption of steady global GDP growth and continued disinflation in 2026.
- We are witnessing a classic divergence between perceived risk and actual economic health.
. Growth is Robust: Far from a recession, Oxford Economics has actually raised its 2026 US GDP forecast to 2.8%, the top end of the forecaster range, driven by AI-related investment and productivity gains.
. The "Worst-Case" isn't Fatal: Even if the US-Eurozone trade dispute escalates to a full "trade war" (currently a 20% probability), modelling suggests a hit to US GDP of only 0.5%. The economy would remain resilient, with growth at ~2.3%.
- Credit Conditions are Green: The proprietary credit conditions index has turned positive for the first time since late 2021, signaling ample liquidity.
- For asset allocators, retrenching into cash due to headline fear is likely over cautious. The strategy now requires precision, not retreat.
Technical approach:
- USTEC is consolidating within a broader range. The index bounced off EMA78 on retest and closed above EMA21. The index is still in a sideways phase captured by a Symmetrical Triangle pattern, awaiting an apparent breakout to determine the next trend.
- If USTEC breaches above the Symmetrical Triangle and the resistance at 26100, the index may surge to test the 100% Fibonacci Extension at 26620.
- On the contrary, remaining below 26100 may prompt a retreat toward the support at 25150.
Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
İşlem aktif
It broke the Triangle and went up. We gonna have new record highs.
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Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, alım satım veya diğer türden tavsiye veya öneriler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Koşulları bölümünde daha fazlasını okuyun.
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, alım satım veya diğer türden tavsiye veya öneriler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Koşulları bölümünde daha fazlasını okuyun.