Price has risen, but be careful
Looking at the D1, H4, and H1 timeframes, we can see the following:
D1 Timeframe
D1 momentum has reversed upward. Therefore, there is a high possibility that at least one daily bottom has already been formed. We expect this upward move to potentially continue for about 3 more days, until D1 momentum enters the overbought zone.
The D1 wave structure is still within the WXY structure.
Price dropped below the 4022 low, then rebounded and closed back above this area. This shows a successful liquidity sweep, removing the stop-loss orders of the Buy side and at the same time triggering the Sell Stop orders below from breakout sellers.
Above the current price, we can see a green candle within the previous decline. This is a bearish OB and may be the area price seeks to reach in the short term. This is very important for intraday trading, as it suggests that Monday could be a bullish day.
When D1 momentum rises into the overbought zone, if price breaks above the 4391 high, we will have confirmation of a structural shift. That would be the first initial signal confirming a new bullish trend.
H4 Timeframe
From the H4 timeframe downward, I will not label this current upward move for now, because it is unnecessary and would only make trading more complicated.
The reason is that this current upward move could be wave 1 in the form of a leading diagonal, but it could also be only a temporary corrective upward wave within wave X, wave B, or wave 4 of another structure. These two scenarios would lead to completely opposite wave paths afterward.
Therefore, until D1 momentum enters the overbought zone and price reaches the key observation area at 4391, I will not label the wave structure at this time.
H4 momentum is currently in the overbought zone. Therefore, there is a possibility that we may see a bearish reversal on H4 when the Monday morning session opens.
Pay attention to the liquidity zone that I have circled. Price is currently in this area, and this zone is acting as resistance. Previously, there was a large amount of Sell orders from this area, meaning a large amount of Sell-side stop losses is located above the previous high at 4142.
If price shows rejection in this zone, especially if it sweeps above the 4142 high and then closes back below this high when the Monday morning session opens, combined with H4 momentum reversing downward, we will have a potential Sell zone.
H1 Timeframe
We are relying on D1 to forecast that Monday could be a bullish day. This means that if we look at a bullish D1 candle, we will often see price pushed below the opening price at the beginning of the session to create the lower wick. Then, during the European session, price may rebound, and toward the end of the New York session, price may slightly decline to create the upper wick.
This means we will prioritize using the large liquidity zones below as support areas to look for Buy setups as the main direction during a bullish day.
For now, the 4040 area is a strong support zone where Buy setups may be considered. In addition, nearby resistance zones such as 4098 and 4146, after price reacts upward and closes strongly above these areas, will shift their role from resistance to support. This is especially important if it aligns with H4 momentum being in the oversold zone and preparing to reverse upward.
İşlem aktif
Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD 6/29/2026
A new trend, or simply a pullback?
At the market open today, price declined.
H4 momentum is currently decreasing, so the downside move may continue for about the next 1 to 2 H4 candles.
The high-liquidity zone is acting as a strong support area around 4040 to 4023. In this zone, we should patiently wait for reversal confirmation, such as H4 momentum entering the oversold zone or H1 momentum reversing upward.
After that, we can move down to the lower timeframes to look for structural shifts in order to enter Buy positions.
İşlem kapandı: hedefe ulaştı
Market Update
H4 momentum and H1 momentum are currently in the oversold zone. Therefore, we may be preparing for a reversal move on the H4 timeframe.
The major liquidity zone around 4023 is also a bullish Order Block. We expect a bullish bounce from this OB toward the previous high at 4098, or until H4 momentum enters the overbought zone.
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İlgili yayınlar
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, alım satım veya diğer türden tavsiye veya öneriler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Koşulları bölümünde daha fazlasını okuyun.