GOLD - Anticipating a short squeeze before the decline continues
XAUUSD experienced a short squeeze around the key liquidity zone following Tuesday's CPI release. However, the market quickly regained its bearish momentum and resumed selling in line with the prevailing trend
The U.S. dollar remains in consolidation, as does the broader market, but the Dollar Index (DXY) continues to maintain its broader bullish trend, keeping pressure on gold. The lack of fundamental support, combined with ongoing geopolitical tensions, continues to favor the bears. The escalation of the U.S.–Iran conflict in the Strait of Hormuz remains a key source of uncertainty
Gold is still under pressure, with sellers maintaining control and using every rebound as an opportunity to initiate new short positions. The next major catalysts will be the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) and speeches from Federal Reserve officials, including Warsh. The daily technical structure remains bearish.
Bearish drivers: Escalation of the geopolitical conflict, Higher oil prices, Hawkish Fed rhetoric, Technical sell-on-rallies
Bullish drivers: Geopolitical de-escalation, Weaker-than-expected inflation data (including PPI), Dovish Fed commentary
Resistance levels: 4062, 4103
Support levels: 4021, 3986, 3960
Technically, gold is testing the 4021 intermediate support level. A local false breakdown could trigger a countertrend rebound toward the 4062 resistance zone to sweep liquidity before the broader downtrend resumes toward 3986–3960
Best regards,
R. Linda
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