Last week marked the seventh consecutive bearish week for Gold.
From the recent highs near 4800 at the beginning of May to last week's low just under the 4000 figure, Gold has lost roughly 20% of its value in less than two months.
Naturally, the question almost every trader is asking is:
Is this interim bear trend finally over?
The answer, in my opinion, is not as straightforward as many would like.
The reason is simple: the answer depends largely on your time horizon.
---
The Bullish Case
There are several arguments supporting the bullish side.
1. The Long-Term Trend Is Still Bullish
Despite the recent 20% decline, the bigger picture remains constructive.
If we zoom out, the drop from the all-time high still looks more like a correction inside a long-term uptrend than the beginning of a long term bear market.
Markets do not move in straight lines forever.
Even the strongest bull markets experience corrections before resuming higher.
2. The Psychological Importance of 4000
The second bullish argument is the proximity of the 4000 figure.
Round numbers often become important psychological levels where long-term investors begin accumulating.
That does not guarantee a reversal.
But it certainly increases the probability of buyers becoming interested.
3. Fundamentals Still Favor Gold
From a fundamental perspective, the long-term case for Gold remains intact.
Regardless of short-term volatility, the broader macro environment continues to support Gold over longer investment horizons.
4. Bears Failed to Extend the Breakdown
Another detail worth noting is what happened after Gold first approached the 4000 area earlier this month.
Last week's new low was only marginally below that level.
For a market that has already fallen 20%, the inability to extend significantly lower could be an early sign that selling pressure is beginning to fade.
---
The Bearish Case
Now let's look at the other side.
Because ignoring bearish arguments simply because we want to buy would be a mistake.
Technically, Gold is still making lower highs and lower lows.
That sequence has not been broken.
In addition, the price continues to trade below important moving averages, confirming that short-term momentum remains negative.
From a swing trading perspective, those facts cannot be ignored.
Until the structure changes, the path of least resistance remains lower.
---
So... Who Is Right?
In my opinion, neither bulls nor bears are completely right.
The more important question is:
What type of trader are you?
If you are a long-term investor or someone accumulating physical Gold, prices around the 4000 area look attractive from a value perspective.
However, if you are a short-term trader, your job is different.
Your job is to trade the trend that exists today—not the one you hope will appear tomorrow.
And today, that trend is still bearish.
For me, Gold only starts turning constructive again if buyers manage to reclaim and hold above the 4200 zone.
Until then, I continue to treat rallies with caution and view them primarily as corrections inside the current downtrend.
Sometimes two traders can look at exactly the same chart and both be right.
The difference is not the chart.
The difference is the time horizon they are trading. 🚀
From the recent highs near 4800 at the beginning of May to last week's low just under the 4000 figure, Gold has lost roughly 20% of its value in less than two months.
Naturally, the question almost every trader is asking is:
Is this interim bear trend finally over?
The answer, in my opinion, is not as straightforward as many would like.
The reason is simple: the answer depends largely on your time horizon.
---
The Bullish Case
There are several arguments supporting the bullish side.
1. The Long-Term Trend Is Still Bullish
Despite the recent 20% decline, the bigger picture remains constructive.
If we zoom out, the drop from the all-time high still looks more like a correction inside a long-term uptrend than the beginning of a long term bear market.
Markets do not move in straight lines forever.
Even the strongest bull markets experience corrections before resuming higher.
2. The Psychological Importance of 4000
The second bullish argument is the proximity of the 4000 figure.
Round numbers often become important psychological levels where long-term investors begin accumulating.
That does not guarantee a reversal.
But it certainly increases the probability of buyers becoming interested.
3. Fundamentals Still Favor Gold
From a fundamental perspective, the long-term case for Gold remains intact.
Regardless of short-term volatility, the broader macro environment continues to support Gold over longer investment horizons.
4. Bears Failed to Extend the Breakdown
Another detail worth noting is what happened after Gold first approached the 4000 area earlier this month.
Last week's new low was only marginally below that level.
For a market that has already fallen 20%, the inability to extend significantly lower could be an early sign that selling pressure is beginning to fade.
---
The Bearish Case
Now let's look at the other side.
Because ignoring bearish arguments simply because we want to buy would be a mistake.
Technically, Gold is still making lower highs and lower lows.
That sequence has not been broken.
In addition, the price continues to trade below important moving averages, confirming that short-term momentum remains negative.
From a swing trading perspective, those facts cannot be ignored.
Until the structure changes, the path of least resistance remains lower.
---
So... Who Is Right?
In my opinion, neither bulls nor bears are completely right.
The more important question is:
What type of trader are you?
If you are a long-term investor or someone accumulating physical Gold, prices around the 4000 area look attractive from a value perspective.
However, if you are a short-term trader, your job is different.
Your job is to trade the trend that exists today—not the one you hope will appear tomorrow.
And today, that trend is still bearish.
For me, Gold only starts turning constructive again if buyers manage to reclaim and hold above the 4200 zone.
Until then, I continue to treat rallies with caution and view them primarily as corrections inside the current downtrend.
Sometimes two traders can look at exactly the same chart and both be right.
The difference is not the chart.
The difference is the time horizon they are trading. 🚀
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📈 Join the FREE Forex & Gold Channel
👉 t.me/intradaytradingsignals
💎 Join the FREE Crypto Channel
👉 t.me/FanCryptocurrency
İlgili yayınlar
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, alım satım veya diğer türden tavsiye veya öneriler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Koşulları bölümünde daha fazlasını okuyun.
🎯 Want More Trading Ideas?
📈 Join the FREE Forex & Gold Channel
👉 t.me/intradaytradingsignals
💎 Join the FREE Crypto Channel
👉 t.me/FanCryptocurrency
📈 Join the FREE Forex & Gold Channel
👉 t.me/intradaytradingsignals
💎 Join the FREE Crypto Channel
👉 t.me/FanCryptocurrency
İlgili yayınlar
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, alım satım veya diğer türden tavsiye veya öneriler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Koşulları bölümünde daha fazlasını okuyun.