Gold is currently trading inside an important decision area. My overall bias remains bearish for the month/week, but I will stay confirmation-based because price is approaching a strong higher-timeframe demand zone below.
Monthly Timeframe
On the Monthly timeframe, price swept the Monthly swing-low liquidity and gave a body close below that liquidity in June. For me, this is a bearish delivery sign because the market did not only sweep liquidity; it also accepted below the swing low.
Below current price, I have a major Monthly Bullish OB FVG / demand zone around 3850–3450. This is the main higher-timeframe area where price may react strongly if it continues falling.
So, Monthly structure is still bearish, but price is moving toward a strong HTF demand zone.
Weekly Timeframe
Weekly timeframe is also supporting the bearish view because price previously closed below Weekly swing-low liquidity.
The current bullish weekly candle should not be treated as a confirmed reversal yet. In my view, it is more likely a Daily timeframe pullback unless price gives proper bullish confirmation.
The important confluence is that the Monthly Bullish OB FVG is aligning with my Weekly Bullish OB FVG + Weekly Volume Imbalance around 3800–3700 / 3750. This zone can become a major reaction area.
Daily Timeframe
On the Daily timeframe, price is currently inside / near a Daily Bearish OB FVG supply zone around 4200–4150.
This is my key decision area.
If price gives a strong bearish impulsive rejection from this Daily Bearish OB FVG, then I will expect price to continue lower toward the next liquidity and HTF demand zones.
Bearish invalidation for this idea is above 4220.
Main Bias
My current overall bias is bearish.
I will continue to look for sell setups unless price gives strong bullish confirmation from the Weekly / Monthly POI.
I am not changing bias only because price gives a small reaction from support. For a real bias shift, I need proper market structure confirmation.
Bearish Scenario
If price rejects strongly from the Daily Bearish OB FVG around 4200–4150, then I will look for shorts on lower timeframe confirmation.
For execution, I want to see:
Liquidity sweep on 1H / 15M
Bearish MSS / CHOCH
Strong bearish displacement
Fresh 1H / 15M Bearish OB FVG / selling POI
Retest and rejection from that POI
If these confirmations appear, then I will plan shorts toward the downside targets.
Downside Targets
Target 1: 3940
Daily swing-low liquidity.
Target 2: 3800–3750
Weekly Bullish POI + Weekly Volume Imbalance.
Target 3: 3700–3650
Daily / Weekly last Bullish OB FVG area.
Bullish Confirmation Scenario
If price reaches the Weekly POI around 3800–3750 / 3760 and gives a sharp bullish rejection, I will not immediately become bullish.
First, I will shift from bearish to neutral / confirmation mode.
For bullish bias, I need to see:
Strong bullish rejection from Weekly POI
Daily / 4H bullish MSS
Strong bullish displacement
Fresh Bullish OB FVG / buying POI creation
Daily candle closing bullish
No fresh Daily selling POI created above price
Only after these confirmations, I will consider that bearish continuation is weakening and bullish reversal may start.
Important Note
If price only gives 15M or 1H rejection from the Weekly POI, that is not enough to change higher-timeframe bias. That may only give an intraday reaction. For a real bias change, We need Daily / 4H confirmation.
Next Week Plan
For next week, my main plan is simple:
I will remain bearish below 4220 and will look for sell setups from valid 1H / 15M bearish POIs after Daily supply rejection.
I am expecting downside delivery first toward 3940, and if bearish momentum continues, then toward 3800–3750.
At 3800–3750, I will be careful with shorts because this is a strong Weekly / Monthly demand confluence zone. If price gives strong bullish confirmation from there, I will stop forcing sells and wait for a new structure to form.
Final View
Gold is still bearish from a higher-timeframe delivery perspective because Monthly and Weekly structure both support downside continuation.
But price is approaching strong HTF demand, so execution must be confirmation-based.
Bias: Bearish
Invalidation: Above 4220
Main sell zone: 4200–4150
Main downside draw: 3940 → 3800–3750 → 3700–3650
Until Daily / 4H gives strong bullish MSS and displacement, I will continue to treat bullish candles as pullbacks and focus on selling from valid bearish POIs.
Monthly Timeframe
On the Monthly timeframe, price swept the Monthly swing-low liquidity and gave a body close below that liquidity in June. For me, this is a bearish delivery sign because the market did not only sweep liquidity; it also accepted below the swing low.
Below current price, I have a major Monthly Bullish OB FVG / demand zone around 3850–3450. This is the main higher-timeframe area where price may react strongly if it continues falling.
So, Monthly structure is still bearish, but price is moving toward a strong HTF demand zone.
Weekly Timeframe
Weekly timeframe is also supporting the bearish view because price previously closed below Weekly swing-low liquidity.
The current bullish weekly candle should not be treated as a confirmed reversal yet. In my view, it is more likely a Daily timeframe pullback unless price gives proper bullish confirmation.
The important confluence is that the Monthly Bullish OB FVG is aligning with my Weekly Bullish OB FVG + Weekly Volume Imbalance around 3800–3700 / 3750. This zone can become a major reaction area.
Daily Timeframe
On the Daily timeframe, price is currently inside / near a Daily Bearish OB FVG supply zone around 4200–4150.
This is my key decision area.
If price gives a strong bearish impulsive rejection from this Daily Bearish OB FVG, then I will expect price to continue lower toward the next liquidity and HTF demand zones.
Bearish invalidation for this idea is above 4220.
Main Bias
My current overall bias is bearish.
I will continue to look for sell setups unless price gives strong bullish confirmation from the Weekly / Monthly POI.
I am not changing bias only because price gives a small reaction from support. For a real bias shift, I need proper market structure confirmation.
Bearish Scenario
If price rejects strongly from the Daily Bearish OB FVG around 4200–4150, then I will look for shorts on lower timeframe confirmation.
For execution, I want to see:
Liquidity sweep on 1H / 15M
Bearish MSS / CHOCH
Strong bearish displacement
Fresh 1H / 15M Bearish OB FVG / selling POI
Retest and rejection from that POI
If these confirmations appear, then I will plan shorts toward the downside targets.
Downside Targets
Target 1: 3940
Daily swing-low liquidity.
Target 2: 3800–3750
Weekly Bullish POI + Weekly Volume Imbalance.
Target 3: 3700–3650
Daily / Weekly last Bullish OB FVG area.
Bullish Confirmation Scenario
If price reaches the Weekly POI around 3800–3750 / 3760 and gives a sharp bullish rejection, I will not immediately become bullish.
First, I will shift from bearish to neutral / confirmation mode.
For bullish bias, I need to see:
Strong bullish rejection from Weekly POI
Daily / 4H bullish MSS
Strong bullish displacement
Fresh Bullish OB FVG / buying POI creation
Daily candle closing bullish
No fresh Daily selling POI created above price
Only after these confirmations, I will consider that bearish continuation is weakening and bullish reversal may start.
Important Note
If price only gives 15M or 1H rejection from the Weekly POI, that is not enough to change higher-timeframe bias. That may only give an intraday reaction. For a real bias change, We need Daily / 4H confirmation.
Next Week Plan
For next week, my main plan is simple:
I will remain bearish below 4220 and will look for sell setups from valid 1H / 15M bearish POIs after Daily supply rejection.
I am expecting downside delivery first toward 3940, and if bearish momentum continues, then toward 3800–3750.
At 3800–3750, I will be careful with shorts because this is a strong Weekly / Monthly demand confluence zone. If price gives strong bullish confirmation from there, I will stop forcing sells and wait for a new structure to form.
Final View
Gold is still bearish from a higher-timeframe delivery perspective because Monthly and Weekly structure both support downside continuation.
But price is approaching strong HTF demand, so execution must be confirmation-based.
Bias: Bearish
Invalidation: Above 4220
Main sell zone: 4200–4150
Main downside draw: 3940 → 3800–3750 → 3700–3650
Until Daily / 4H gives strong bullish MSS and displacement, I will continue to treat bullish candles as pullbacks and focus on selling from valid bearish POIs.
İşlem aktif
Hahahaha.......Price following direction.
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Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, alım satım veya diğer türden tavsiye veya öneriler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Koşulları bölümünde daha fazlasını okuyun.
İlgili yayınlar
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, alım satım veya diğer türden tavsiye veya öneriler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Koşulları bölümünde daha fazlasını okuyun.