XAUUSD: Gold is back near the same weak low zone around 4,139–4,144, and buyers still look too passive.
Fundamental Analysis
Gold is hovering right above a weak bottom zone at 4,139 - 4,144, but don’t be fooled — buyers are not in control. There is no real bullish conviction here.
The structure is fragile. Price attempted a recovery, failed to sustain momentum, and is now pressing back into the same weak low. When the market keeps revisiting a low without strong rejection, it’s not support — it’s a warning. That level is getting ready to break.
Technical Analysis
From an SMC perspective, the short-term structure is clearly bearish. The recent bounce was nothing more than a correction. Sellers are still firmly defending the key reaction zone at 4,170 - 4,195.
As long as gold stays below this zone, sellers dominate. Downside pressure remains intact. Only a decisive reclaim above 4,195 would signal that buyers are finally stepping up.
Right now, the message is clear: gold is standing on a fragile floor, and buyers have not proven anything yet.
Key Price Zones
Current weak low: 4,139 - 4,120
Resistance zone: 4,170 - 4,195
Downside target: 4,080 - 4,090
Bullish confirmation: Above 4,195
Trading Plan
Primary Scenario: Sell Continuation
Entry: Below 4,120 after confirmed breakdown and retest
Stop Loss: Above 4,150
Take Profit 1: 4,090
Take Profit 2: 4,080
Take Profit 3: 4,050
Entry Conditions
Price breaks below the 4,120 weak low.
Retest of the broken level fails.
Bearish momentum continues after the breakdown.
Price remains below the 4,170 - 4,195 resistance zone.
Do not chase if price has already extended too far without a retest.
Alternative Scenario: Sell From Resistance
Entry: 4,170 - 4,195 after bearish confirmation
Stop Loss: Above 4,210
Take Profit 1: 4,139 - 4,120
Take Profit 2: 4,090
Take Profit 3: 4,080
Sell Conditions
If price pulls back into the 4,170 - 4,195 zone and fails to break higher, that’s your signal. Any bearish rejection here confirms sellers are still in control and ready to push the market lower.
Buy Scenario
Entry: Above 4,195 after breakout and retest
Stop Loss: Below 4,170
Take Profit 1: 4,220
Take Profit 2: 4,250
Take Profit 3: 4,280
Buy Conditions
Buying is not the priority right now. Only consider longs if gold breaks above 4,195, holds that level, and forms a clear bullish CHOCH. Until then, buyers are simply not strong enough.
Overall View
Gold is standing on a weak foundation. Buyers must defend 4,120 and reclaim 4,170 - 4,195 — anything less is failure.
Until proven otherwise, every weak bounce is a selling opportunity. A clean break below 4,120 will likely trigger a move straight down to 4,080 - 4,090.
The question is simple: will buyers finally step up, or will gold collapse through 4,120 and continue the drop?
eases the risk of a breakdown.
Fundamental Analysis
Gold is hovering right above a weak bottom zone at 4,139 - 4,144, but don’t be fooled — buyers are not in control. There is no real bullish conviction here.
The structure is fragile. Price attempted a recovery, failed to sustain momentum, and is now pressing back into the same weak low. When the market keeps revisiting a low without strong rejection, it’s not support — it’s a warning. That level is getting ready to break.
Technical Analysis
From an SMC perspective, the short-term structure is clearly bearish. The recent bounce was nothing more than a correction. Sellers are still firmly defending the key reaction zone at 4,170 - 4,195.
As long as gold stays below this zone, sellers dominate. Downside pressure remains intact. Only a decisive reclaim above 4,195 would signal that buyers are finally stepping up.
Right now, the message is clear: gold is standing on a fragile floor, and buyers have not proven anything yet.
Key Price Zones
Current weak low: 4,139 - 4,120
Resistance zone: 4,170 - 4,195
Downside target: 4,080 - 4,090
Bullish confirmation: Above 4,195
Trading Plan
Primary Scenario: Sell Continuation
Entry: Below 4,120 after confirmed breakdown and retest
Stop Loss: Above 4,150
Take Profit 1: 4,090
Take Profit 2: 4,080
Take Profit 3: 4,050
Entry Conditions
Price breaks below the 4,120 weak low.
Retest of the broken level fails.
Bearish momentum continues after the breakdown.
Price remains below the 4,170 - 4,195 resistance zone.
Do not chase if price has already extended too far without a retest.
Alternative Scenario: Sell From Resistance
Entry: 4,170 - 4,195 after bearish confirmation
Stop Loss: Above 4,210
Take Profit 1: 4,139 - 4,120
Take Profit 2: 4,090
Take Profit 3: 4,080
Sell Conditions
If price pulls back into the 4,170 - 4,195 zone and fails to break higher, that’s your signal. Any bearish rejection here confirms sellers are still in control and ready to push the market lower.
Buy Scenario
Entry: Above 4,195 after breakout and retest
Stop Loss: Below 4,170
Take Profit 1: 4,220
Take Profit 2: 4,250
Take Profit 3: 4,280
Buy Conditions
Buying is not the priority right now. Only consider longs if gold breaks above 4,195, holds that level, and forms a clear bullish CHOCH. Until then, buyers are simply not strong enough.
Overall View
Gold is standing on a weak foundation. Buyers must defend 4,120 and reclaim 4,170 - 4,195 — anything less is failure.
Until proven otherwise, every weak bounce is a selling opportunity. A clean break below 4,120 will likely trigger a move straight down to 4,080 - 4,090.
The question is simple: will buyers finally step up, or will gold collapse through 4,120 and continue the drop?
eases the risk of a breakdown.
📌 Owen Steele · XAUUSD · SMC · Order Blocks · Liquidity
🕐Weekly outlook every Monday t.me/+X3kNEpwkIcE1ZDY1
💬 Deeper analysis & real-time updates
🔔 Boost if this helped · t.me/+up9c00DV6so3NWQ9
🕐Weekly outlook every Monday t.me/+X3kNEpwkIcE1ZDY1
💬 Deeper analysis & real-time updates
🔔 Boost if this helped · t.me/+up9c00DV6so3NWQ9
İlgili yayınlar
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, alım satım veya diğer türden tavsiye veya öneriler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Koşulları bölümünde daha fazlasını okuyun.
📌 Owen Steele · XAUUSD · SMC · Order Blocks · Liquidity
🕐Weekly outlook every Monday t.me/+X3kNEpwkIcE1ZDY1
💬 Deeper analysis & real-time updates
🔔 Boost if this helped · t.me/+up9c00DV6so3NWQ9
🕐Weekly outlook every Monday t.me/+X3kNEpwkIcE1ZDY1
💬 Deeper analysis & real-time updates
🔔 Boost if this helped · t.me/+up9c00DV6so3NWQ9
İlgili yayınlar
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, alım satım veya diğer türden tavsiye veya öneriler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Koşulları bölümünde daha fazlasını okuyun.