SOYBEAN FUTURES –
Price: 1117.0
Weekly 55 EMA: 1116.0
Weekly 200 EMA: 1152.0
DXY: 99.87
US 10Y Real Yield: 2.198%
Bloomberg Commodity Index: 130.48
The macro environment has become significantly less supportive for grains than a month ago:
Headwinds
DXY approaching 100.00
Real Yield back near 2.20%
Bloomberg Commodity Index falling sharply from 138.96 → 130.48
Managed Money reducing longs and aggressively adding shorts.....This is a classic risk-off commodity environment.
USDA Crop Progress Assessment : At current prices the market is increasingly pricing a favorable crop outcome.
Wyckoff Assessment The structure now resembles:
Distribution
Buying Climax:
1235
Automatic Reaction:
1170
Secondary Test:
1194
Sign of Weakness:
Break below 1170
Last Point of Supply:
1194
Current:
Markdown DXY & Real Yield Implications
This combination is typically negative for grains. If: DXY breaks 100 and Real Yield moves above 2.25 : Then pressure likely intensifies. Conclusion :
The market is at the most important technical location since the 955 low.
We have a rare confluence of:
Weekly 55 EMA (1116)
Deeply depressed 36M COT Index (14.9%)
Commercial hedges being reduced
Price testing major support
versus
Aggressive Managed Money short building
DXY near 100
Real Yields near 2.20%
Wyckoff markdown structure
The battle between 1110–1128 will likely determine whether Soybeans are entering a final capitulation phase toward 1082/1038, or beginning a larger re-accumulation process for the second half of the year.
Price: 1117.0
Weekly 55 EMA: 1116.0
Weekly 200 EMA: 1152.0
DXY: 99.87
US 10Y Real Yield: 2.198%
Bloomberg Commodity Index: 130.48
The macro environment has become significantly less supportive for grains than a month ago:
Headwinds
DXY approaching 100.00
Real Yield back near 2.20%
Bloomberg Commodity Index falling sharply from 138.96 → 130.48
Managed Money reducing longs and aggressively adding shorts.....This is a classic risk-off commodity environment.
USDA Crop Progress Assessment : At current prices the market is increasingly pricing a favorable crop outcome.
Wyckoff Assessment The structure now resembles:
Distribution
Buying Climax:
1235
Automatic Reaction:
1170
Secondary Test:
1194
Sign of Weakness:
Break below 1170
Last Point of Supply:
1194
Current:
Markdown DXY & Real Yield Implications
This combination is typically negative for grains. If: DXY breaks 100 and Real Yield moves above 2.25 : Then pressure likely intensifies. Conclusion :
The market is at the most important technical location since the 955 low.
We have a rare confluence of:
Weekly 55 EMA (1116)
Deeply depressed 36M COT Index (14.9%)
Commercial hedges being reduced
Price testing major support
versus
Aggressive Managed Money short building
DXY near 100
Real Yields near 2.20%
Wyckoff markdown structure
The battle between 1110–1128 will likely determine whether Soybeans are entering a final capitulation phase toward 1082/1038, or beginning a larger re-accumulation process for the second half of the year.
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, alım satım veya diğer türden tavsiye veya öneriler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Koşulları bölümünde daha fazlasını okuyun.
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, alım satım veya diğer türden tavsiye veya öneriler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Koşulları bölümünde daha fazlasını okuyun.