Samvat 2083: HDFC Securities picks 10 stocks across sectors; BEL, L&T, Ambuja Cement among top bets

Indian equities are heading into Samvat 2083 with investors weighing earnings growth, global uncertainties and the possibility of a broader recovery in domestic consumption and capital expenditure. While the near-term market trajectory may remain uneven, HDFC Securities sees opportunities in companies with strong order books, capacity expansion plans, improving operating efficiencies and sector-specific growth triggers.

In its Diwali 2026 investment strategy, the brokerage has identified 10 stocks across large-cap, mid-cap and small-cap segments, spanning sectors such as cement, power, defence, automobiles, metals, pharmaceuticals and infrastructure. The brokerage believes stock-specific opportunities, rather than a broad-based market rally, could reward investors over the coming year. Its recommendations carry a target horizon of one year, until the next Diwali.

Here are the brokerage's key picks and the investment rationale behind them.

Ambuja Cement | Target price: Rs 481

HDFC Securities is positive on Ambuja Cement's capacity expansion plans and the potential for margin recovery. The company is targeting capacity additions of 10 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) in FY27, taking its installed capacity to 119 MTPA, with further expansion expected to take it to 134 MTPA by FY29-end. The brokerage expects an 8 percent volume CAGR over FY26-29.

It also expects higher blended cement sales, increased green power usage and lower logistics costs to support profitability. The brokerage estimates consolidated volume and EBITDA CAGR of 8 percent and 17 percent, respectively, over FY26-28.

Adani Power | Target price: Rs 234

Adani Power is among HDFC Securities' preferred bets on India's rising electricity demand and the continued need for conventional power generation alongside renewable energy. The company plans to increase its operational capacity from around 18.3 GW currently to 45 GW by FY32.

The brokerage highlighted that long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) already cover 62 percent of its expansion pipeline, providing revenue visibility. It expects revenue and EBITDA to grow at a CAGR of 18.8 percent and 19.2 percent, respectively, between FY27 and FY29.

Coal India | Target price: Rs 490

HDFC Securities sees Coal India benefiting from sustained power demand, higher coal production and cost-control measures. The company's production rose to 151.37 million tonnes in Q2FY27 from 145.82 million tonnes a year earlier.

Its plans to develop 36 new coal projects over the next five years could support production growth, while manpower rationalisation could improve margins. The brokerage expects EBITDA to grow at an 11.2 percent CAGR over FY26-28 and believes strong cash flows and dividend payouts add to the investment case.

Bharat Electronics | Target price: Rs 475

A strong order pipeline and India's defence indigenisation push underpin HDFC Securities' positive view on Bharat Electronics (BEL). The company's order book stood at Rs 68,717 crore as of October 1, 2026, providing visibility over future revenue.

The brokerage also sees scope for export growth, with BEL having a potential export order pipeline of around $500 million. Cost controls, indigenisation and a strong research and development base are expected to support margins. It estimates revenue CAGR of around 14 percent over FY26-29.

Maruti Suzuki | Target price: Rs 13,900

HDFC Securities expects Maruti Suzuki to benefit from its expanding utility vehicle portfolio, new product launches and export momentum. The brokerage highlighted the company's plans to increase manufacturing capacity towards 30 lakh units annually, alongside its strong distribution network and presence in rural markets.

A healthy booking backlog, lower channel inventory and improving pricing power could support growth and help offset higher input costs.

Can Fin Homes | Target price: Rs 845

The brokerage has picked Can Fin Homes for its consistent asset quality, relatively low funding costs and focus on salaried borrowers. The housing finance company has maintained gross non-performing assets below 1 percent over the past decade.

HDFC Securities expects loan growth of over 15 percent in FY27, supported by branch additions, customer diversification and technology investments. However, slower loan growth and competition from banks remain key monitorables.

KPR Mill | Target price: Rs 1,289

KPR Mill is expected to benefit from improving export competitiveness following the India-UK and India-EU trade agreements, as well as global retailers diversifying sourcing beyond China. Around 58 percent of its garment revenue comes from European markets, making it particularly exposed to the potential benefits of lower trade barriers.

The brokerage also highlighted its integrated textile business and strong first-half FY27 performance, with improving margins and realisations supporting its growth outlook.

Tata Steel | Target price: Rs 210

HDFC Securities sees Tata Steel benefiting from India's infrastructure spending, higher steel consumption and capacity expansion. The ramp-up of its Kalinganagar facility and investments in value-added products are expected to drive volumes and improve realisations.

Cost optimisation and operational efficiencies could support margins, with management targeting around 6 percent consolidated sales volume growth in FY27.

Emcure Pharmaceuticals | Target price: Rs 2,208

Emcure Pharmaceuticals features among the brokerage's healthcare picks, backed by domestic market share gains and a growing international product pipeline. Its domestic formulations business has been supported by established brands, while its Europe and Canada businesses offer opportunities through niche products and complex generics.

HDFC Securities expects operating leverage and growth across business segments to drive EBITDA and profit after tax (PAT) CAGRs of 18.5 percent and 25 percent, respectively, over FY26-29.

Larsen & Toubro | Target price: Rs 4,458

Larsen & Toubro rounds off the list, with HDFC Securities betting on its strong order book and execution capabilities. Its order book stood at Rs 8.53 lakh crore as of September 2026, with international markets accounting for 54 percent.

The brokerage sees opportunities across infrastructure, energy, defence and renewable projects, while the growing contribution from international orders, particularly in the Middle East, could support execution and earnings growth. It expects revenue, EBITDA and PAT to grow at CAGRs of around 13 percent, 14.5 percent and 21 percent, respectively, over FY26-29.

(HDFC Securities' target prices are based on its November 2, 2026 report and carry a time horizon until the next Diwali)