OPEN-SOURCE SCRIPT
Crossover Whipsaw Guard
**Crossover Whipsaw Guard**
**What it does**
Turns a moving-average crossover into a two-step state: *pending* the moment the fast MA crosses the slow one, *confirmed* once the two averages have separated by at least a minimum percentage (default 0.30 % of the slow MA). Optional extra conditions for confirmation: volume above its 20-bar average, and a higher high plus higher low over the last N bars (mirrored for bearish crosses). A confirmed state holds until the averages cross back; it is never downgraded.
**What you see**
- Both averages (defaults EMA 9 and DEMA 200; EMA, SMA and DEMA selectable for each).
- The area between them filled gray while pending, teal or red once confirmed.
- A small dot on the bar where confirmation happened.
- A table with the current separation, the threshold, active extra filters and the state.
- Alerts for each of the four transitions: bullish pending, bullish confirmed, bearish pending, bearish confirmed.
**Why I built it — the measurement behind it**
Crossovers of a fast and a slow average produce many entries that get stopped out within days. I measured which conditions at the crossover bar reduced that, on 47,013 daily bullish crossovers (EMA 9 over DEMA 200) across 1,758 US stocks, 2014–2026, including later-delisted names, each followed by the same trailing exit:
| Condition at the crossover bar | Share of crossovers kept | Share of trades ending positive | vs. the crossovers it removed |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| none (all crossovers) | 100 % | 31.0 % | — |
| separation ≥ 0.10 % | 77 % | 31.8 % | 28.6 % |
| separation ≥ 0.30 % | 45 % | 33.1 % | 29.4 % |
| volume > 1.1 × 20-bar average | 36 % | 32.8 % | 30.1 % |
| higher high & higher low (10 bars) | 85 % | 31.5 % | 28.8 % |
All four held in the second half of the sample (from September 2020, +2.1 to +2.8 points each). The filters overlap: combining separation with volume kept 20 % of crossovers at 33.5 %, not more.
**What the measurement does not show — please read**
- The improvement is in *fewer stop-outs*, not in better returns afterwards. Measured without any exit, 20 and 60 bars after the crossover, the separation and volume conditions left the kept and removed groups within a point of each other; the higher-high/higher-low condition improved the 20-bar outcome (+3.4 points) but not the 60-bar one. This is a whipsaw filter, not a return predictor.
- The absolute hit rates (31 %) belong to one specific exit rule with a tight trailing threshold, typical for trend following. Your exit will give different absolute numbers.
- Tested on daily bars and on one pair of averages. The separation threshold is a percentage of price, so it needs adjusting for other timeframes and volatilities — the table shows the current separation to help with that.
- A confirmed state is a description of where the averages are. It is not a recommendation to do anything.
No buy or sell signals are generated, and none are implied.
**What it does**
Turns a moving-average crossover into a two-step state: *pending* the moment the fast MA crosses the slow one, *confirmed* once the two averages have separated by at least a minimum percentage (default 0.30 % of the slow MA). Optional extra conditions for confirmation: volume above its 20-bar average, and a higher high plus higher low over the last N bars (mirrored for bearish crosses). A confirmed state holds until the averages cross back; it is never downgraded.
**What you see**
- Both averages (defaults EMA 9 and DEMA 200; EMA, SMA and DEMA selectable for each).
- The area between them filled gray while pending, teal or red once confirmed.
- A small dot on the bar where confirmation happened.
- A table with the current separation, the threshold, active extra filters and the state.
- Alerts for each of the four transitions: bullish pending, bullish confirmed, bearish pending, bearish confirmed.
**Why I built it — the measurement behind it**
Crossovers of a fast and a slow average produce many entries that get stopped out within days. I measured which conditions at the crossover bar reduced that, on 47,013 daily bullish crossovers (EMA 9 over DEMA 200) across 1,758 US stocks, 2014–2026, including later-delisted names, each followed by the same trailing exit:
| Condition at the crossover bar | Share of crossovers kept | Share of trades ending positive | vs. the crossovers it removed |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| none (all crossovers) | 100 % | 31.0 % | — |
| separation ≥ 0.10 % | 77 % | 31.8 % | 28.6 % |
| separation ≥ 0.30 % | 45 % | 33.1 % | 29.4 % |
| volume > 1.1 × 20-bar average | 36 % | 32.8 % | 30.1 % |
| higher high & higher low (10 bars) | 85 % | 31.5 % | 28.8 % |
All four held in the second half of the sample (from September 2020, +2.1 to +2.8 points each). The filters overlap: combining separation with volume kept 20 % of crossovers at 33.5 %, not more.
**What the measurement does not show — please read**
- The improvement is in *fewer stop-outs*, not in better returns afterwards. Measured without any exit, 20 and 60 bars after the crossover, the separation and volume conditions left the kept and removed groups within a point of each other; the higher-high/higher-low condition improved the 20-bar outcome (+3.4 points) but not the 60-bar one. This is a whipsaw filter, not a return predictor.
- The absolute hit rates (31 %) belong to one specific exit rule with a tight trailing threshold, typical for trend following. Your exit will give different absolute numbers.
- Tested on daily bars and on one pair of averages. The separation threshold is a percentage of price, so it needs adjusting for other timeframes and volatilities — the table shows the current separation to help with that.
- A confirmed state is a description of where the averages are. It is not a recommendation to do anything.
No buy or sell signals are generated, and none are implied.
Açık kaynak kodlu komut dosyası
Gerçek TradingView ruhuyla, bu komut dosyasının mimarı, yatırımcıların işlevselliğini inceleyip doğrulayabilmesi için onu açık kaynaklı hale getirdi. Yazarı tebrik ederiz! Ücretsiz olarak kullanabilseniz de, kodu yeniden yayınlamanın Topluluk Kurallarımıza tabi olduğunu unutmayın.
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, alım satım veya diğer türden tavsiye veya öneriler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Koşulları bölümünde daha fazlasını okuyun.
Açık kaynak kodlu komut dosyası
Gerçek TradingView ruhuyla, bu komut dosyasının mimarı, yatırımcıların işlevselliğini inceleyip doğrulayabilmesi için onu açık kaynaklı hale getirdi. Yazarı tebrik ederiz! Ücretsiz olarak kullanabilseniz de, kodu yeniden yayınlamanın Topluluk Kurallarımıza tabi olduğunu unutmayın.
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, alım satım veya diğer türden tavsiye veya öneriler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Koşulları bölümünde daha fazlasını okuyun.