COT Commercial Hedger Extreme
In commodities, the crowd and the smart money sit on opposite sides of the same report every week. The Commitment of Traders breaks open interest into commercials -- the producers, merchants and processors who hedge physical -- and large speculators, who are mostly trend-following money. The commercials are the ones who actually touch the barrel, the bushel, the bar. When they move to an extreme, it pays to listen.
The pattern that marks real commodity bottoms is simple to say and hard to wait for: commercial hedgers covering shorts en masse, from a multi-year net-short extreme, and curling back toward flat or net long. That is the producers deciding price has fallen far enough that they no longer need to hedge aggressively. It happened at the 2008 low, it happened into the 2018-19 lows, and I used this exact tell to call the September 2022 gold bottom near $1,640 in real time on TradingView. Gold peaked above $5,500 in January 2026, a move of more than 200% from that low.
This indicator puts that read on your chart.
The colored net line is the commercial position: red when they're at an extreme and still pressing shorts (no bottom), yellow when they start covering up off that extreme, green when they curl to flat or net long (the bottom tell). A triangle marks the first week they begin covering, a diamond marks the cross to net long. The blue line is large speculators for context -- they are usually heaviest long right as commercials are heaviest short, which is the whole point. Optional small-trader line too.
The dashboard shows commercial net, where it sits in its multi-year percentile, the spec and small-trader nets, and whether covering is underway. Alerts fire when hedgers start covering and when they flip toward net long.
Works on any futures with a CFTC code -- gold, silver, copper, oil, grains, even the index futures. Set the code in the settings to match the contract you're charting. Default is gold.
One read in isolation is a tell, not a trigger. I pair it with trend and price structure -- it tells you the tank is full of fuel, not that the match is lit. But when commercials cover their shorts, I want to know.
The pattern that marks real commodity bottoms is simple to say and hard to wait for: commercial hedgers covering shorts en masse, from a multi-year net-short extreme, and curling back toward flat or net long. That is the producers deciding price has fallen far enough that they no longer need to hedge aggressively. It happened at the 2008 low, it happened into the 2018-19 lows, and I used this exact tell to call the September 2022 gold bottom near $1,640 in real time on TradingView. Gold peaked above $5,500 in January 2026, a move of more than 200% from that low.
This indicator puts that read on your chart.
The colored net line is the commercial position: red when they're at an extreme and still pressing shorts (no bottom), yellow when they start covering up off that extreme, green when they curl to flat or net long (the bottom tell). A triangle marks the first week they begin covering, a diamond marks the cross to net long. The blue line is large speculators for context -- they are usually heaviest long right as commercials are heaviest short, which is the whole point. Optional small-trader line too.
The dashboard shows commercial net, where it sits in its multi-year percentile, the spec and small-trader nets, and whether covering is underway. Alerts fire when hedgers start covering and when they flip toward net long.
Works on any futures with a CFTC code -- gold, silver, copper, oil, grains, even the index futures. Set the code in the settings to match the contract you're charting. Default is gold.
One read in isolation is a tell, not a trigger. I pair it with trend and price structure -- it tells you the tank is full of fuel, not that the match is lit. But when commercials cover their shorts, I want to know.
Public, timestamped track record. Free month of the desk: ivanlabrie.netlify.app
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, alım satım veya diğer türden tavsiye veya öneriler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Koşulları bölümünde daha fazlasını okuyun.
Public, timestamped track record. Free month of the desk: ivanlabrie.netlify.app
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, alım satım veya diğer türden tavsiye veya öneriler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Koşulları bölümünde daha fazlasını okuyun.