OPEN-SOURCE SCRIPT
VolEdge: Vol Weather Report
VOLEDGE: VOL WEATHER REPORT — Know the vol regime before you trade
Do you check VIX on your broker, glance at VIXCentral, peek at VVIX on Yahoo, then try to mentally piece together what it all means?
This indicator does that synthesis for you.
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WHAT IT DOES
Classifies today's volatility environment into 4 regimes using a weighted composite of three signals — not just VIX alone:
• VIX spot level (40% weight)
• VVIX — volatility of VIX (30% weight)
• VIX/VIX3M ratio — term structure proxy (30% weight)
Output: a regime badge, key data points, term structure shape, and a strategy one-liner.
☀️ Low · ⛅ Normal · 🌧️ Elevated · 🌪️ Crisis
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WHY THREE SIGNALS, NOT JUST VIX?
VIX at 19 with VVIX calm and steep contango is a completely different environment than VIX at 19 with VVIX spiking and term structure flattening.
The first is routine. The second is trouble brewing — and most free tools will show you the exact same number for both. This indicator catches regime shifts BEFORE VIX alone reflects them. VVIX often leads VIX by hours or days. Term structure flattening signals institutional hedging that hasn't hit spot VIX yet.
Examples from recent history:
1. In late January 2018, VIX was below 15 but VVIX had been creeping up for days. This indicator would have shown the composite score rising toward Elevated before Volmageddon hit.
2. In early 2020, VIX was still in the teens while the VIX/VIX3M ratio started flattening sharply. The composite caught the shift to Elevated days before VIX itself spiked above 30.
3. Similar situation in April 2026.
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THE FOUR REGIMES — WHAT THEY MEAN AND HOW TO TRADE THEM
LOW REGIME (Score 0–25)
Typical conditions: VIX below 15, VVIX subdued (<85), steep contango (VIX/VIX3M < 0.85)
What's happening:
The market is calm. Implied volatility is compressed. Options premiums are thin. Everyone is complacent — hedging demand is low, and the VIX term structure is steeply sloped, which means markets expect the future to be calm too.
What to consider:
• Premium sellers: premiums are thin. Selling strangles or iron condors here gives you small credits for meaningful risk. Many experienced sellers sit out or reduce size. The risk/reward of selling vol at the lows is unfavorable.
• Vol buyers: this is historically where long vol positions get interesting. Cheap VIX calls, long straddles on indices, or UVXY positions have asymmetric upside when vol is compressed. The question is timing — low vol can persist for months.
• Position sizing: if you do sell premium, keep positions small. The calm won't last forever, and when it breaks, it breaks fast.
• What to watch: VVIX starting to creep above 90 while VIX stays low is an early warning. The Regime Clock (coming soon) tracks how long low vol has persisted — the longer it lasts, the higher the probability of a shift.
Common mistake: selling aggressive premium because "VIX is low and markets are calm." This is how blow-ups happen. Low vol is the most dangerous time to be over-leveraged on short vol.
NORMAL REGIME (Score 25–50)
Typical conditions: VIX 15–20, VVIX 85–105, moderate contango (VIX/VIX3M 0.85–0.95)
What's happening:
Standard market conditions. There's a healthy level of implied volatility — neither compressed nor elevated. The term structure is in normal contango (near-term vol lower than long-term), which is the default state of VIX futures roughly 80% of the time.
What to consider:
• Premium sellers: this is your sweet spot. Premiums are adequate to justify risk, and the macro environment is not signaling stress. Strangles, iron condors, short puts on stocks with elevated IV rank — all viable.
• Directional traders: options are neither cheap nor expensive. Standard position sizing applies. If you're buying calls or puts, check individual stock IV rank — you want to avoid paying inflated premiums.
• Spread traders: credit spreads and iron condors work well here. 30–45 DTE, 1 standard deviation wings, standard position sizing rules.
• What to watch: VIX/VIX3M ratio creeping toward 0.95+ is the earliest warning that we're transitioning toward Elevated. VVIX above 105 in a Normal VIX environment is a subtle caution sign — the market is pricing in the possibility of a VIX move.
This is the "do your normal thing" regime. No special adjustments needed.
ELEVATED REGIME (Score 50–75)
Typical conditions: VIX 20–30, VVIX rising (105–130), flattening or mild backwardation (VIX/VIX3M 0.95–1.05)
What's happening:
The market is nervous. There's an active catalyst — earnings season stress, geopolitical tension, Fed uncertainty, or a developing correction. Implied vol is meaningfully above normal, and the term structure is flattening or beginning to invert. Institutions are hedging.
What to consider:
• Premium sellers: premiums are rich, which is tempting. But this is where discipline matters most. If you sell:
— Reduce position size by 30–50% vs Normal regime
— Widen your strikes (go further OTM)
— Use defined-risk strategies (iron condors, spreads) instead of naked positions
— Shorten duration (closer to 21 DTE vs 45 DTE) to reduce exposure time
• Directional traders: be cautious buying options here — IV is elevated, which means you're paying more for the same notional exposure. If you buy, consider debit spreads to offset the high IV, or wait for a VIX spike to sell into.
• Vol traders: this is the regime where VIX call spreads and UVXY positions often start to lose value (vol tends to mean-revert from Elevated). If you went long vol during Low regime, this might be where you start taking profits.
• Cash is a position: there is no rule that says you have to trade every day. Elevated regimes often resolve within 2–3 weeks. Waiting for clarity is a valid strategy.
• What to watch: if VIX/VIX3M crosses above 1.0 (backwardation), that's a significant escalation — the market is pricing near-term risk above long-term risk. VVIX above 120 means a VIX spike is being actively priced in.
Common mistake: seeing rich premiums and over-sizing. Elevated premiums exist for a reason — the market is pricing in the possibility of a big move. Respect it.
CRISIS REGIME (Score 75–100)
Typical conditions: VIX above 30, VVIX spiking (>130), backwardation (VIX/VIX3M > 1.05)
What's happening:
The market is in panic. This is March 2020, Volmageddon 2018, August 2024, "Liberation Day" April 2025 territory. VIX is elevated, the term structure is inverted (near-term vol > long-term vol), and VVIX is showing extreme demand for VIX options. Liquidity is poor. Bid-ask spreads on options are wide. Volatility of volatility is at its highest.
What to consider:
• Experienced premium sellers ONLY: yes, premiums are the richest they'll ever be. Selling a 30-delta strangle on SPX when VIX is at 40 generates enormous credit. But the risk is equally enormous — overnight gaps, limit moves, and circuit breakers are all on the table. If you have 5+ years of experience and a clear risk management plan, small defined-risk positions (iron condors with very wide wings) can be appropriate. If you don't, stay out.
• Beginners and intermediate traders: do not sell premium in Crisis. Full stop. The stories you hear about traders making a fortune selling puts during COVID crashes? Those are survivor bias. For every one who nailed it, ten blew up their accounts.
• Protective strategies: if you have existing long positions, this is when protective puts are expensive but potentially life-saving. Consider collars (buy a put, sell a call) to reduce cost.
• Vol traders: if you're short VIX futures or short UVXY and the regime hits Crisis, cover or reduce immediately. Mean reversion is real, but "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." Crisis regimes typically last 1–3 weeks (median ~8 trading days), but the damage to short-vol positions happens in the first 1–3 days.
• Cash: being in cash during a crisis is not a failure. It's risk management. You can re-enter when the regime de-escalates to Elevated or Normal.
• What to watch: the FIRST sign of de-escalation is usually the VIX/VIX3M ratio dropping back below 1.0 (exiting backwardation). Then VVIX starts falling. VIX spot is often the LAST thing to normalize. Don't wait for VIX to drop below 20 — by then, the best premium-selling opportunities are gone.
Historical context: Crisis regimes are rare and short-lived. VIX has been above 30 on roughly 5% of all trading days since 1990. But those days contain the majority of all options trading losses. Respect the regime.
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HOW THE SCORING WORKS
Each input is normalized to a 0–100 scale, then weighted:
VIX Component (40%):
VIX = 10 → score 0 | VIX = 25 → score 50 | VIX = 40 → score 100
VVIX Component (30%):
VVIX = 70 → score 0 | VVIX = 110 → score 50 | VVIX = 150 → score 100
VIX/VIX3M Ratio (30%):
Ratio = 0.75 → score 0 | Ratio = 0.925 → score 50 | Ratio = 1.10 → score 100
Final composite = (VIX score × 0.40) + (VVIX score × 0.30) + (Ratio score × 0.30)
Regime thresholds:
0–25 = ☀️ Low | 25–50 = ⛅ Normal | 50–75 = 🌧️ Elevated | 75–100 = 🌪️ Crisis
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TERM STRUCTURE LABELS
The indicator automatically classifies VIX term structure shape:
• Contango (steep): VIX/VIX3M < 0.90 — markets expect calm ahead
• Contango (flat): VIX/VIX3M 0.90–1.00 — contango narrowing, watch for shift
• Backwardation (mild): VIX/VIX3M 1.00–1.05 — near-term stress exceeding long-term
• Backwardation (steep): VIX/VIX3M > 1.05 — significant panic, near-term risk dominant
Why it matters: backwardation in VIX futures has historically coincided with market drawdowns. When the curve flips, pay attention.
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WHAT'S ON THE DASHBOARD
Row 1: Regime badge with icon (color-coded background)
Row 2: VIX spot level
Row 3: VVIX level
Row 4: VIX/VIX3M ratio (color-coded: green < 0.95, amber 0.95–1.0, red > 1.0)
Row 5: Term structure shape label
Row 6: Composite score out of 100
Row 7: Strategy context sentence (can be toggled off in settings)
Background: chart gets a subtle red/orange tint during Elevated and Crisis regimes.
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SETTINGS
• Table position: choose where the panel appears on your chart
• Text size: Small / Normal / Large
• Show strategy context: toggle the strategy sentence on or off
• VIX alert level: set your personal threshold for VIX cross alerts
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ALERTS
🔔 Regime Change — fires when the regime transitions (any direction)
🚨 Crisis Regime — fires specifically when regime enters Crisis
⚠️ Elevated Regime — fires specifically when regime enters Elevated
📈 VIX Above Alert Level — fires when VIX crosses above your configured level
📉 VIX Below Alert Level — fires when VIX drops below your configured level
To set up: click the "Alerts" button on your chart → select this indicator → choose the alert condition.
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WHAT THIS INDICATOR IS NOT
• Not a timing tool — it tells you current conditions, not "buy now" or "sell now"
• Not a substitute for individual stock analysis — this is macro vol context
• Not financial advice — it's an analytical framework for your own decision-making
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█ DISCLAIMER
This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice and should not be used as the sole basis for any trading decision. Past performance of any regime classification does not guarantee future results. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.
Do you check VIX on your broker, glance at VIXCentral, peek at VVIX on Yahoo, then try to mentally piece together what it all means?
This indicator does that synthesis for you.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
WHAT IT DOES
Classifies today's volatility environment into 4 regimes using a weighted composite of three signals — not just VIX alone:
• VIX spot level (40% weight)
• VVIX — volatility of VIX (30% weight)
• VIX/VIX3M ratio — term structure proxy (30% weight)
Output: a regime badge, key data points, term structure shape, and a strategy one-liner.
☀️ Low · ⛅ Normal · 🌧️ Elevated · 🌪️ Crisis
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
WHY THREE SIGNALS, NOT JUST VIX?
VIX at 19 with VVIX calm and steep contango is a completely different environment than VIX at 19 with VVIX spiking and term structure flattening.
The first is routine. The second is trouble brewing — and most free tools will show you the exact same number for both. This indicator catches regime shifts BEFORE VIX alone reflects them. VVIX often leads VIX by hours or days. Term structure flattening signals institutional hedging that hasn't hit spot VIX yet.
Examples from recent history:
1. In late January 2018, VIX was below 15 but VVIX had been creeping up for days. This indicator would have shown the composite score rising toward Elevated before Volmageddon hit.
2. In early 2020, VIX was still in the teens while the VIX/VIX3M ratio started flattening sharply. The composite caught the shift to Elevated days before VIX itself spiked above 30.
3. Similar situation in April 2026.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
THE FOUR REGIMES — WHAT THEY MEAN AND HOW TO TRADE THEM
LOW REGIME (Score 0–25)
Typical conditions: VIX below 15, VVIX subdued (<85), steep contango (VIX/VIX3M < 0.85)
What's happening:
The market is calm. Implied volatility is compressed. Options premiums are thin. Everyone is complacent — hedging demand is low, and the VIX term structure is steeply sloped, which means markets expect the future to be calm too.
What to consider:
• Premium sellers: premiums are thin. Selling strangles or iron condors here gives you small credits for meaningful risk. Many experienced sellers sit out or reduce size. The risk/reward of selling vol at the lows is unfavorable.
• Vol buyers: this is historically where long vol positions get interesting. Cheap VIX calls, long straddles on indices, or UVXY positions have asymmetric upside when vol is compressed. The question is timing — low vol can persist for months.
• Position sizing: if you do sell premium, keep positions small. The calm won't last forever, and when it breaks, it breaks fast.
• What to watch: VVIX starting to creep above 90 while VIX stays low is an early warning. The Regime Clock (coming soon) tracks how long low vol has persisted — the longer it lasts, the higher the probability of a shift.
Common mistake: selling aggressive premium because "VIX is low and markets are calm." This is how blow-ups happen. Low vol is the most dangerous time to be over-leveraged on short vol.
NORMAL REGIME (Score 25–50)
Typical conditions: VIX 15–20, VVIX 85–105, moderate contango (VIX/VIX3M 0.85–0.95)
What's happening:
Standard market conditions. There's a healthy level of implied volatility — neither compressed nor elevated. The term structure is in normal contango (near-term vol lower than long-term), which is the default state of VIX futures roughly 80% of the time.
What to consider:
• Premium sellers: this is your sweet spot. Premiums are adequate to justify risk, and the macro environment is not signaling stress. Strangles, iron condors, short puts on stocks with elevated IV rank — all viable.
• Directional traders: options are neither cheap nor expensive. Standard position sizing applies. If you're buying calls or puts, check individual stock IV rank — you want to avoid paying inflated premiums.
• Spread traders: credit spreads and iron condors work well here. 30–45 DTE, 1 standard deviation wings, standard position sizing rules.
• What to watch: VIX/VIX3M ratio creeping toward 0.95+ is the earliest warning that we're transitioning toward Elevated. VVIX above 105 in a Normal VIX environment is a subtle caution sign — the market is pricing in the possibility of a VIX move.
This is the "do your normal thing" regime. No special adjustments needed.
ELEVATED REGIME (Score 50–75)
Typical conditions: VIX 20–30, VVIX rising (105–130), flattening or mild backwardation (VIX/VIX3M 0.95–1.05)
What's happening:
The market is nervous. There's an active catalyst — earnings season stress, geopolitical tension, Fed uncertainty, or a developing correction. Implied vol is meaningfully above normal, and the term structure is flattening or beginning to invert. Institutions are hedging.
What to consider:
• Premium sellers: premiums are rich, which is tempting. But this is where discipline matters most. If you sell:
— Reduce position size by 30–50% vs Normal regime
— Widen your strikes (go further OTM)
— Use defined-risk strategies (iron condors, spreads) instead of naked positions
— Shorten duration (closer to 21 DTE vs 45 DTE) to reduce exposure time
• Directional traders: be cautious buying options here — IV is elevated, which means you're paying more for the same notional exposure. If you buy, consider debit spreads to offset the high IV, or wait for a VIX spike to sell into.
• Vol traders: this is the regime where VIX call spreads and UVXY positions often start to lose value (vol tends to mean-revert from Elevated). If you went long vol during Low regime, this might be where you start taking profits.
• Cash is a position: there is no rule that says you have to trade every day. Elevated regimes often resolve within 2–3 weeks. Waiting for clarity is a valid strategy.
• What to watch: if VIX/VIX3M crosses above 1.0 (backwardation), that's a significant escalation — the market is pricing near-term risk above long-term risk. VVIX above 120 means a VIX spike is being actively priced in.
Common mistake: seeing rich premiums and over-sizing. Elevated premiums exist for a reason — the market is pricing in the possibility of a big move. Respect it.
CRISIS REGIME (Score 75–100)
Typical conditions: VIX above 30, VVIX spiking (>130), backwardation (VIX/VIX3M > 1.05)
What's happening:
The market is in panic. This is March 2020, Volmageddon 2018, August 2024, "Liberation Day" April 2025 territory. VIX is elevated, the term structure is inverted (near-term vol > long-term vol), and VVIX is showing extreme demand for VIX options. Liquidity is poor. Bid-ask spreads on options are wide. Volatility of volatility is at its highest.
What to consider:
• Experienced premium sellers ONLY: yes, premiums are the richest they'll ever be. Selling a 30-delta strangle on SPX when VIX is at 40 generates enormous credit. But the risk is equally enormous — overnight gaps, limit moves, and circuit breakers are all on the table. If you have 5+ years of experience and a clear risk management plan, small defined-risk positions (iron condors with very wide wings) can be appropriate. If you don't, stay out.
• Beginners and intermediate traders: do not sell premium in Crisis. Full stop. The stories you hear about traders making a fortune selling puts during COVID crashes? Those are survivor bias. For every one who nailed it, ten blew up their accounts.
• Protective strategies: if you have existing long positions, this is when protective puts are expensive but potentially life-saving. Consider collars (buy a put, sell a call) to reduce cost.
• Vol traders: if you're short VIX futures or short UVXY and the regime hits Crisis, cover or reduce immediately. Mean reversion is real, but "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." Crisis regimes typically last 1–3 weeks (median ~8 trading days), but the damage to short-vol positions happens in the first 1–3 days.
• Cash: being in cash during a crisis is not a failure. It's risk management. You can re-enter when the regime de-escalates to Elevated or Normal.
• What to watch: the FIRST sign of de-escalation is usually the VIX/VIX3M ratio dropping back below 1.0 (exiting backwardation). Then VVIX starts falling. VIX spot is often the LAST thing to normalize. Don't wait for VIX to drop below 20 — by then, the best premium-selling opportunities are gone.
Historical context: Crisis regimes are rare and short-lived. VIX has been above 30 on roughly 5% of all trading days since 1990. But those days contain the majority of all options trading losses. Respect the regime.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
HOW THE SCORING WORKS
Each input is normalized to a 0–100 scale, then weighted:
VIX Component (40%):
VIX = 10 → score 0 | VIX = 25 → score 50 | VIX = 40 → score 100
VVIX Component (30%):
VVIX = 70 → score 0 | VVIX = 110 → score 50 | VVIX = 150 → score 100
VIX/VIX3M Ratio (30%):
Ratio = 0.75 → score 0 | Ratio = 0.925 → score 50 | Ratio = 1.10 → score 100
Final composite = (VIX score × 0.40) + (VVIX score × 0.30) + (Ratio score × 0.30)
Regime thresholds:
0–25 = ☀️ Low | 25–50 = ⛅ Normal | 50–75 = 🌧️ Elevated | 75–100 = 🌪️ Crisis
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
TERM STRUCTURE LABELS
The indicator automatically classifies VIX term structure shape:
• Contango (steep): VIX/VIX3M < 0.90 — markets expect calm ahead
• Contango (flat): VIX/VIX3M 0.90–1.00 — contango narrowing, watch for shift
• Backwardation (mild): VIX/VIX3M 1.00–1.05 — near-term stress exceeding long-term
• Backwardation (steep): VIX/VIX3M > 1.05 — significant panic, near-term risk dominant
Why it matters: backwardation in VIX futures has historically coincided with market drawdowns. When the curve flips, pay attention.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
WHAT'S ON THE DASHBOARD
Row 1: Regime badge with icon (color-coded background)
Row 2: VIX spot level
Row 3: VVIX level
Row 4: VIX/VIX3M ratio (color-coded: green < 0.95, amber 0.95–1.0, red > 1.0)
Row 5: Term structure shape label
Row 6: Composite score out of 100
Row 7: Strategy context sentence (can be toggled off in settings)
Background: chart gets a subtle red/orange tint during Elevated and Crisis regimes.
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SETTINGS
• Table position: choose where the panel appears on your chart
• Text size: Small / Normal / Large
• Show strategy context: toggle the strategy sentence on or off
• VIX alert level: set your personal threshold for VIX cross alerts
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ALERTS
🔔 Regime Change — fires when the regime transitions (any direction)
🚨 Crisis Regime — fires specifically when regime enters Crisis
⚠️ Elevated Regime — fires specifically when regime enters Elevated
📈 VIX Above Alert Level — fires when VIX crosses above your configured level
📉 VIX Below Alert Level — fires when VIX drops below your configured level
To set up: click the "Alerts" button on your chart → select this indicator → choose the alert condition.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
WHAT THIS INDICATOR IS NOT
• Not a timing tool — it tells you current conditions, not "buy now" or "sell now"
• Not a substitute for individual stock analysis — this is macro vol context
• Not financial advice — it's an analytical framework for your own decision-making
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
█ DISCLAIMER
This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice and should not be used as the sole basis for any trading decision. Past performance of any regime classification does not guarantee future results. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.
Açık kaynak kodlu komut dosyası
Gerçek TradingView ruhuyla, bu komut dosyasının mimarı, yatırımcıların işlevselliğini inceleyip doğrulayabilmesi için onu açık kaynaklı hale getirdi. Yazarı tebrik ederiz! Ücretsiz olarak kullanabilseniz de, kodu yeniden yayınlamanın Topluluk Kurallarımıza tabi olduğunu unutmayın.
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, alım satım veya diğer türden tavsiye veya öneriler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Koşulları bölümünde daha fazlasını okuyun.
Açık kaynak kodlu komut dosyası
Gerçek TradingView ruhuyla, bu komut dosyasının mimarı, yatırımcıların işlevselliğini inceleyip doğrulayabilmesi için onu açık kaynaklı hale getirdi. Yazarı tebrik ederiz! Ücretsiz olarak kullanabilseniz de, kodu yeniden yayınlamanın Topluluk Kurallarımıza tabi olduğunu unutmayın.
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, alım satım veya diğer türden tavsiye veya öneriler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Koşulları bölümünde daha fazlasını okuyun.