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Overnight Range & Trend-Day Probability

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Overnight Range & Trend-Day Probability
Grades the coming cash session before it opens. It measures the overnight block, compares it to the instrument's average daily range, and answers one question: has today's expansion already happened overnight, or is it statistically still ahead?

The bias read

The overnight block runs from the Asia open to the cash open and freezes there. Its height is compared against the average daily range (ADR) to produce a trend-day grade:

  • A small overnight range relative to ADR means the day's expansion is statistically still ahead — graded HIGH.
  • A mid-sized overnight range grades MEDIUM.
  • A large overnight range means the move may have already been spent overnight, favouring range-bound or reversal conditions — graded LOW.


The grade always prints with the number that produced it, so the read is verifiable at a glance rather than a bare word. A directional lean accompanies it, taken from where price trades relative to the open anchors — all above reads bullish, all below reads bearish, split reads mixed, with the vote count shown. An optional modifier flags when the week has already consumed most of its average weekly range.

What it draws

  • The overnight range block — grows through the night, freezes at the cash open.
  • Open-anchor lines — Midnight Open, News Open, Cash Open — each on its own custom time, extending to the cash close.
  • AR projection lines — the anchor open ± ADR, with optional 1/3 and 2/3 ADR levels and optional ± AWR lines. The anchor is selectable: Midnight Open, Cash Open, or Asia Open.
  • An on-chart bias label with the full read in one line.
  • A compact table: the trend-day verdict first, then the lean, the overnight range, and the Asia share of the overnight block. Threshold arithmetic lives in the cell tooltips.


The chart carries one day at a time — the previous day's drawings clear the moment a new session begins.

Asia decomposition

The overnight block merges Asia, the dead zone, London, and pre-NY. This engine isolates the Asia kill zone portion and reports it as a share of the whole block, classified as Normal, Elevated, or Inverted against adjustable thresholds. An inverted reading — Asia doing the expansion leg instead of accumulating — is readable directly from the table. The verdict resolves at the cash-open freeze, since the share is undefined while Asia still is the whole block.

Settings

  • Every session time is a custom input: the overnight block bounds, each open anchor, the Asia kill zone clock, and four optional session range boxes (Asia, London KZ, dead zone, NY AM KZ) — each drawn only across its own session high-low with its name on top, never as a full-height background tint. All off by default, each with its own colour.
  • ADR and AWR lookbacks are adjustable.
  • The probability thresholds, the Asia decomposition thresholds, and the exhaustion alert level are all adjustable.


Alerts

  • Trend-day probability finalised at the cash-open freeze.
  • Price crossing the Midnight Open or the Cash Open.
  • Overnight range exhaustion against ADR.


All session logic runs on New York time with daylight saving handled automatically. Detection runs on confirmed bars only, so nothing repaints. Works across all instruments and timeframes — designed for price delivery analysis on MNQ, MES, MYM, XAU/USD, and related markets.

Disclaimer
This indicator is a chart analysis tool, not financial advice. It identifies price levels and statistical tendencies; it does not predict the market or generate trade signals. Always do your own analysis and manage your own risk.
Sürüm Notları
Minor Visual Touchups

-Label Placement "ON Range"
-Table Header Colour

Feragatname

Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, alım satım veya diğer türden tavsiye veya öneriler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Koşulları bölümünde daha fazlasını okuyun.