AUD/USD 
AUDUSD began the new trading week with a moderate bearish gap, retreating further from the two-and-a-half-week high of 0.6970 reached last Friday.
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✅ Macro-Geopolitics: IRGC Completely Blockades the Strait of Hormuz & Triggers Fed Inflation Alarm
- The main factors underlying the US Dollar's tactical rebound and triggering the Aussie's downward correction stem from critical developments in the global energy corridor:
- Kinetic Warfare & Waterway Closure: After the US military launched a massive airstrike, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) retaliated by raining missiles on US military bases in the Gulf.
- Fed Interest Rate Speculation Spikes (Now 90%): The complete blockade of this strategic waterway immediately triggered a sharp rally in crude oil prices due to concerns about global supply disruptions. Expectations of a secondary, energy-driven inflation spiral have soared.
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✅ Daily Chart Technical Analysis
Despite suffering a daily bearish gap, the Aussie's long-term technical setup still suggests a healthy structural defence from the June multi-month trough:
- Macro Positive Trend Support: The pair is impressively holding comfortably above 0.6878 and 0.6849 (calculated from the November 2025–May 2026 rally).
- Buyer Momentum Barrier: On the flip side, the RSI (14) is stuck around 42, reflecting a still-tentative and fragile momentum improvement. The Aussie's repeated failure to break and hold above 0.6951 confirms the presence of daily supply limiting gains ahead of the US superdata release.
- Sustained strength above 0.6951 is needed to pave the way for a rally towards 0.7077.
AUDUSD began the new trading week with a moderate bearish gap, retreating further from the two-and-a-half-week high of 0.6970 reached last Friday.--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
✅ Macro-Geopolitics: IRGC Completely Blockades the Strait of Hormuz & Triggers Fed Inflation Alarm
- The main factors underlying the US Dollar's tactical rebound and triggering the Aussie's downward correction stem from critical developments in the global energy corridor:
- Kinetic Warfare & Waterway Closure: After the US military launched a massive airstrike, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) retaliated by raining missiles on US military bases in the Gulf.
- Fed Interest Rate Speculation Spikes (Now 90%): The complete blockade of this strategic waterway immediately triggered a sharp rally in crude oil prices due to concerns about global supply disruptions. Expectations of a secondary, energy-driven inflation spiral have soared.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
✅ Daily Chart Technical Analysis
Despite suffering a daily bearish gap, the Aussie's long-term technical setup still suggests a healthy structural defence from the June multi-month trough:
- Macro Positive Trend Support: The pair is impressively holding comfortably above 0.6878 and 0.6849 (calculated from the November 2025–May 2026 rally).
- Buyer Momentum Barrier: On the flip side, the RSI (14) is stuck around 42, reflecting a still-tentative and fragile momentum improvement. The Aussie's repeated failure to break and hold above 0.6951 confirms the presence of daily supply limiting gains ahead of the US superdata release.
- Sustained strength above 0.6951 is needed to pave the way for a rally towards 0.7077.
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