If we set emotions aside and look at the market through a pure trend-following lens, BTCUSD is currently in a state of “a rebound within a broader downtrend” rather than a genuine recovery. The recent price bounces are largely driven by short-covering after panic selling, not by a clear return of strong institutional capital. With market sentiment still cautious, every rally risks turning into an opportunity for distribution.
From a structural perspective, Bitcoin has completely broken its previous bullish base and has entered a clearly defined descending channel on H4. Price remains trapped below the Ichimoku cloud, signaling that the dominant trend has not changed. The bounce from the lows has only produced a lower high, confirming that buyers currently lack the strength to regain control.
The 71,000–71,300 zone stands out as a critical price ceiling. This area is a confluence of the descending trendline and key technical resistance, where selling pressure is highly likely to emerge. If Bitcoin reaches this zone but fails to secure a decisive candle close above it, the probability strongly favors a renewed move to the downside.
In that scenario, the 62,800–63,000 region becomes a logical target for the next bearish leg—aligned with both technical structure and the risk-averse sentiment still dominating the crypto market. At this stage, fighting the trend by trying to catch a bottom carries significant risk, while selling into rallies remains the more disciplined strategy given the current market picture.
From a structural perspective, Bitcoin has completely broken its previous bullish base and has entered a clearly defined descending channel on H4. Price remains trapped below the Ichimoku cloud, signaling that the dominant trend has not changed. The bounce from the lows has only produced a lower high, confirming that buyers currently lack the strength to regain control.
The 71,000–71,300 zone stands out as a critical price ceiling. This area is a confluence of the descending trendline and key technical resistance, where selling pressure is highly likely to emerge. If Bitcoin reaches this zone but fails to secure a decisive candle close above it, the probability strongly favors a renewed move to the downside.
In that scenario, the 62,800–63,000 region becomes a logical target for the next bearish leg—aligned with both technical structure and the risk-averse sentiment still dominating the crypto market. At this stage, fighting the trend by trying to catch a bottom carries significant risk, while selling into rallies remains the more disciplined strategy given the current market picture.
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Signals & setups to boost your edge
Free trading plans to follow
Real-time market insights
相關出版品
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這些資訊和出版物並非旨在提供，也不構成TradingView提供或認可的任何形式的財務、投資、交易或其他類型的建議或推薦。請閱讀使用條款以了解更多資訊。