BTC reclaimed the prior balance POC around the 63.2k area and is now holding back above value. The previous rejection from that zone failed, which tells me sellers did not get clean continuation below the POC.
My volatility model is now aligned with LTF Expansion + HTF Expansion, so the active playbook is continuation pullback only. I am not looking to chase the current impulse. I want to see whether buyers can defend a pullback and continue the auction higher.
Bullish scenario
The cleaner long setup would be a pullback into the reclaimed area.
Key zones I am watching:
63.5k–63.6k as the aggressive pullback zone
63.2k–63.4k as the deeper POC / value reclaim zone
If price pulls back into one of these areas, holds above value, and order flow confirms buyers stepping back in, I would look for continuation toward:
TP1: 64.0k
TP2: 64.2k
TP3: 64.4k–64.6k
The long idea is invalidated if price loses acceptance back below the reclaimed POC area around 63.2k.
Bearish scenario
The short side is not my primary idea while both LTF and HTF are in expansion. I would only consider a short if price pushes into upper liquidity around 64.0k–64.4k and fails to accept higher.
For a short, I would want to see:
liquidity sweep above the recent highs
rejection back below the breakout area
bearish order-flow shift
failure to hold above 64.0k–64.2k
Downside targets on a failed breakout would be:
TP1: 63.6k
TP2: 63.3k / POC
TP3: 62.8k–63.0k
Plan
Primary bias is bullish continuation, but only from a pullback. I am not interested in buying the top of the impulse. If price accepts above 64.0k–64.2k, continuation toward 64.4k–64.6k becomes more likely. If price fails above that area, I will watch for a trap setup back toward the POC.
For now, the best trade is not to chase. The best trade is to wait for a pullback, confirmation, and clean risk.
My volatility model is now aligned with LTF Expansion + HTF Expansion, so the active playbook is continuation pullback only. I am not looking to chase the current impulse. I want to see whether buyers can defend a pullback and continue the auction higher.
Bullish scenario
The cleaner long setup would be a pullback into the reclaimed area.
Key zones I am watching:
63.5k–63.6k as the aggressive pullback zone
63.2k–63.4k as the deeper POC / value reclaim zone
If price pulls back into one of these areas, holds above value, and order flow confirms buyers stepping back in, I would look for continuation toward:
TP1: 64.0k
TP2: 64.2k
TP3: 64.4k–64.6k
The long idea is invalidated if price loses acceptance back below the reclaimed POC area around 63.2k.
Bearish scenario
The short side is not my primary idea while both LTF and HTF are in expansion. I would only consider a short if price pushes into upper liquidity around 64.0k–64.4k and fails to accept higher.
For a short, I would want to see:
liquidity sweep above the recent highs
rejection back below the breakout area
bearish order-flow shift
failure to hold above 64.0k–64.2k
Downside targets on a failed breakout would be:
TP1: 63.6k
TP2: 63.3k / POC
TP3: 62.8k–63.0k
Plan
Primary bias is bullish continuation, but only from a pullback. I am not interested in buying the top of the impulse. If price accepts above 64.0k–64.2k, continuation toward 64.4k–64.6k becomes more likely. If price fails above that area, I will watch for a trap setup back toward the POC.
For now, the best trade is not to chase. The best trade is to wait for a pullback, confirmation, and clean risk.
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