This pair has been on an absolute tear this year, clocking in nearly 14 straight bullish weeks — one of the strongest runs we’ve seen in a long time. Most of that surge came right after the Japanese election results last month, and now, things are looking seriously overextended.
Looking at the Monthly and Weekly charts, the structure remains bullish, but momentum is clearly stretched. The pair is deep in overbought territory, setting up a nice potential bearish correction — possibly down to fill the open gap around 185.00.
Daily Chart Breakdown:
Zooming into the daily chart, we can see a clear sideways range forming over the last six days. Thursday’s fake bullish breakout likely trapped a lot of retail traders, triggering stop losses right after the BOJ rate decision.
What caught my attention is that while price popped higher on Thursday, the MACD moving averages crossed down — a clear sign that underlying momentum is shifting bearish.
Game Plan:
If we get a daily close below 191.00 support, I’ll be watching closely for a quick retracement back above that level — that’s where I’ll be looking to get in on the short setup, either tomorrow or in the coming days.
Targets:
First Target: 189.00 (previous support)
Second Target: 185.00 (gap fill level from early last month)
If this plays out, we’re looking at a 300–500 pip opportunity on this move.
This pair has been flying for months, but even strong trends need to breathe — and this one’s showing all the signs of exhaustion.
Let me know what you think below 👇
Looking at the Monthly and Weekly charts, the structure remains bullish, but momentum is clearly stretched. The pair is deep in overbought territory, setting up a nice potential bearish correction — possibly down to fill the open gap around 185.00.
Daily Chart Breakdown:
Zooming into the daily chart, we can see a clear sideways range forming over the last six days. Thursday’s fake bullish breakout likely trapped a lot of retail traders, triggering stop losses right after the BOJ rate decision.
What caught my attention is that while price popped higher on Thursday, the MACD moving averages crossed down — a clear sign that underlying momentum is shifting bearish.
Game Plan:
If we get a daily close below 191.00 support, I’ll be watching closely for a quick retracement back above that level — that’s where I’ll be looking to get in on the short setup, either tomorrow or in the coming days.
Targets:
First Target: 189.00 (previous support)
Second Target: 185.00 (gap fill level from early last month)
If this plays out, we’re looking at a 300–500 pip opportunity on this move.
This pair has been flying for months, but even strong trends need to breathe — and this one’s showing all the signs of exhaustion.
Let me know what you think below 👇
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免責聲明
這些資訊和出版物並非旨在提供，也不構成TradingView提供或認可的任何形式的財務、投資、交易或其他類型的建議或推薦。請閱讀使用條款以了解更多資訊。