Fundamental approach:
- DXY edged higher this week amid firmer US data and cautious Fed rhetoric that tempered aggressive easing bets. Risk sentiment was mixed, with markets awaiting core PCE for policy cues, supporting the dollar on rate differentials and data resilience.
- Stronger jobless claims and an upgraded Q2 GDP print underpinned the greenback, while Fed speakers highlighted divisions over the pace of additional cuts, limiting the index's downside.
- DXY could stabilize or firm if core PCE surprises, while a soft print may rekindle cut expectations and weigh on the dollar.
Technical approach:
- DXY broke the descending trendline and retested the key resistance at around 98.60. The index is around EMA21, and it is awaiting an apparent breakout to determine the upcoming trend.
- If DXY breaks above EMA21 and key resistance at 98.60, the index may retest the following resistance at 100.
- On the contrary, failing to close above 98.60 may lead the index to retest EMA78 or the following support at around 97.15.
Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
- DXY edged higher this week amid firmer US data and cautious Fed rhetoric that tempered aggressive easing bets. Risk sentiment was mixed, with markets awaiting core PCE for policy cues, supporting the dollar on rate differentials and data resilience.
- Stronger jobless claims and an upgraded Q2 GDP print underpinned the greenback, while Fed speakers highlighted divisions over the pace of additional cuts, limiting the index's downside.
- DXY could stabilize or firm if core PCE surprises, while a soft print may rekindle cut expectations and weigh on the dollar.
Technical approach:
- DXY broke the descending trendline and retested the key resistance at around 98.60. The index is around EMA21, and it is awaiting an apparent breakout to determine the upcoming trend.
- If DXY breaks above EMA21 and key resistance at 98.60, the index may retest the following resistance at 100.
- On the contrary, failing to close above 98.60 may lead the index to retest EMA78 or the following support at around 97.15.
Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
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