歐元 / 美元
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EURUSD Short: Fails to Reclaim Supply, Downtrend Intact

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Hello traders! Here’s my technical outlook on EURUSD (3H) based on the current market structure. EURUSD previously traded inside an ascending channel, where price respected dynamic support and formed a sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This structure reflected steady bullish participation and controlled upward momentum. During this phase, multiple breakout points confirmed continuation strength and sustained demand from buyers. The bullish advance eventually reached a major pivot point, where strong selling pressure entered the market. This rejection marked a shift in control and triggered a structural breakdown, pushing price below the channel support and invalidating the prior bullish structure. Following this shift, EURUSD moved into a consolidation range beneath the former support, signaling a temporary balance between buyers and sellers while the market searched for a new directional bias. This range acted as redistribution rather than accumulation, as price repeatedly failed to reclaim higher levels.

Currently, EURUSD is trading below a descending trend line and just under the Supply Zone around 1.1810. The series of lower highs combined with repeated breakout failures suggests that sellers remain in control. Price compression beneath the trend line and supply area often precedes continuation in the direction of the dominant trend.

My primary scenario favors bearish continuation as long as EURUSD remains below the trend line and supply zone. The structure now reflects distribution rather than accumulation, indicating that sellers may be preparing for another push lower. If price continues to reject the trend line and gains acceptance below recent lows, this could open the path toward the Demand Zone near 1.1710, where liquidity is likely resting. However, if buyers manage to reclaim the supply zone and break above the descending trend line, this would weaken the bearish outlook and signal a potential shift back into consolidation or reversal. Until such confirmation appears, market structure, positioning, and momentum dynamics continue to favor sellers. Manage your risk!
交易進行
We see that the euro has slightly broken the trend line, but the price has already returned. Whether this was a corrective movement or a possible trend change, we will see later.
註釋
While it is not yet fully clear whether the euro has changed its trend, we will continue to monitor the market situation.
手動結束交易
We see that the price entered the compression phase below the resistance level and forms a triangle structure.

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