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GBPJPY - Top Down Analysis

== IN SUMMARY ==

Basically just waiting for the PCE report from the US to be released.
As of recently the US has been continuing to show signs of economic improvement including yesterday's GDP, Initial Jobless Claims and the early PCE report.

If today's report shows inflation still hot, I'm expecting the Yen to strengthen, US equities to decline and the British Pound to also decline.
Furthermore, Trump did announce yesterday a 100% tariff on branded pharmaceutical imports, effective October 1, which could add further inflationary pressure and weigh on global risk assets like equities while bolstering the USD in the short term.

This move, part of his broader tariff escalation, risks amplifying supply chain disruptions but aligns with the resilient US data we've seen—Q2 GDP revised up to 3.8% annualized growth (from 3.3%), driven by strong consumer spending and a narrowing trade deficit.

Initial Jobless Claims also dropped sharply to 218K for the week ending September 20, signaling a tight labor market and low layoff risks.

Michael_Harding

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Michael_Harding

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