The DAX has been moving sideways since May, with this flat movement evolving into a triangle formation since June. Price action is contracting, and the index appears to be waiting for a catalyst to determine its next direction.
The DAX is currently near the regression line from the November dip, which keeps both upward and downward possibilities open, consistent with the neutral signal from the triangle pattern.
From a valuation perspective, the DAX’s forward P/E ratio stands at 16.95x, roughly one standard deviation above its 2009-to-date regression line, making it relatively expensive compared to its own history. The S&P 500 trades at a much higher forward P/E of 24.25x, but that figure is near its own long-term regression line. Since early June, the DAX/S&P 500 ratio has fallen by nearly 10%, significantly reducing the DAX’s relative overvaluation and potentially giving it room for another leg higher.
Ultimately, the triangle formation may be the deciding factor. The current upper boundary is at 24,500, and the lower boundary is at 23,490. A break of either could bring volatility back to the DAX, with momentum likely to follow the breakout direction. An upward break could target the 24,400–24,500 zone.
The DAX is currently near the regression line from the November dip, which keeps both upward and downward possibilities open, consistent with the neutral signal from the triangle pattern.
From a valuation perspective, the DAX’s forward P/E ratio stands at 16.95x, roughly one standard deviation above its 2009-to-date regression line, making it relatively expensive compared to its own history. The S&P 500 trades at a much higher forward P/E of 24.25x, but that figure is near its own long-term regression line. Since early June, the DAX/S&P 500 ratio has fallen by nearly 10%, significantly reducing the DAX’s relative overvaluation and potentially giving it room for another leg higher.
Ultimately, the triangle formation may be the deciding factor. The current upper boundary is at 24,500, and the lower boundary is at 23,490. A break of either could bring volatility back to the DAX, with momentum likely to follow the breakout direction. An upward break could target the 24,400–24,500 zone.
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