XAUUSD: NFP data surprises, poised to hit 4200

The US June non-farm payroll data was just released—only 57,000 new jobs were added, far below the expected 113,000 and less than a third of the previous month's 172,000! The moment the data was released, gold surged from $4069 to $4140, and silver soared 4%, breaking through 61.5. The US dollar index plummeted, falling below 101, and the 10-year US Treasury yield fell back to 4.457%.

With both the ADP and non-farm payroll figures falling short, expectations for an interest rate hike have been dealt a heavy blow. Previously, the market was suffocated by expectations of three rate hikes from the Bank of America and two from Deutsche Bank. Now, the US job market data has proven everyone wrong—employment is far less strong than imagined, significantly reducing the probability of a September rate hike.

Reviewing this trend: ADP (98,000) pushed gold from $3960 to $4114, and non-farm payrolls (57,000) pushed gold from $4069 to $4120. Two consecutive data releases propelled gold prices from Monday's low of $3941 to today's $4140, a rebound of nearly $200 in three days. The $3941 level held without any major positive news, and was confirmed by the positive data – this bottom is quite significant.

If the price retraces to the 4100-4080 range during the day, consider entering a long position.

交易進行

交易結束：目標達成