Nvidia: Progress and Countermove

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Although Nvidia hit another local high at the start of the month, it steadily sold off over the following trading days, in line with our primary outlook. Only at the beginning of this week did we see a bit more upside momentum. However, we believe this is just a short-term countermove and expect the ongoing downward impulse to resume soon. Currently, we see NVDA in the third stage of a downward impulse and anticipate further significant sell-offs below support at $188.78. In our alternative scenario, there could be moves above resistance at $237.95, where we would then expect an early long-term cycle top (probability: 38%).

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