SPX Weekly neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 30% SPX, 70% Cash. *Equity and crypto markets are experiencing a technical relief rally after getting decimated by recession fears and tighter more hawkish monetary policy. Fed Chair JPow testified before the Senate Banking Committee earlier today and the main takeaways were that the Fed will remain committed to raising the fed funds rate expeditiously (above 2.5%) and reducing the balance sheet accordingly to bring Core PCE inflation down from 5%-6% to their longer term target of 2%. He made it a point to acknowledge that financial markets are reacting appropriately to the adjustments in monetary policy and that a soft landing isn't entirely out of reach, which begs the question of how much of a hard landing is priced in if a soft landing is improbable but still possible. Dates to watch: PMI report comes out at 945am (EST) tomorrow morning (06/23/22), Core PCE report at 1230pm (EST) on 06/30/22, CPI report at 830am (EST) on 07/13/22 and FOMC Meeting on 07/26/22-07/27/22.* Price is currently testing $3722 support as the bear market sell off intensifies along with recession fears; if it breaks this support it will likely test the 200 MA at $3540 support for the first time since March 2020. Volume is on track to remain Moderate and could break a three session streak of seller dominance with a green close in this week's session. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $4546, this margin is bullish. RSI is currently trending up at 34.67 after exhibiting bullish divergence by bouncing from 30; the next resistance is at 37.75. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently testing 36.55 with no sign of trough formation. MACD remains bearish and is currently forming a new ATL at -167.02 with no sign of trough formation. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 37 as Price attempts to defend $3722 support, this is neutral at the moment; if ADX begins to form a peak as Price continues to push upward, this would be mildly bullish. If Price is able to defend support at $3722 then it will likely test $3950 minor resistance. However, if Price breaks down below $3722, it will likely test the 200 MA as support at $3540 support for the first time since March 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $3722.
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