SPY is pressing into a descending trendline while holding the 760 area, which creates two competing setups.
The bullish case is compression: price keeps holding support while pressure builds underneath the trendline. A clean break and acceptance above the trendline would open the door back toward 766.32, with 772.64 above that.
The bearish case is the one I’m watching more closely: three repeated failures to regain higher prices, followed by another rejection and continuation lower. If 760 gives way and price cannot reclaim it, the downside path I’m watching is 755.27 → 750.85 → 747.28.
My current lean is for another leg down, but the market is at a decision point. I’m not interested in predicting the breakout. I want price to confirm whether this is true bullish compression or simply another failed attempt within a larger bearish structure.
The bullish case is compression: price keeps holding support while pressure builds underneath the trendline. A clean break and acceptance above the trendline would open the door back toward 766.32, with 772.64 above that.
The bearish case is the one I’m watching more closely: three repeated failures to regain higher prices, followed by another rejection and continuation lower. If 760 gives way and price cannot reclaim it, the downside path I’m watching is 755.27 → 750.85 → 747.28.
My current lean is for another leg down, but the market is at a decision point. I’m not interested in predicting the breakout. I want price to confirm whether this is true bullish compression or simply another failed attempt within a larger bearish structure.
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