Gram/USDT

Toncoin: dip buying opportunity or falling knife? key levels to

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Toncoin - buying the dip or catching a falling knife here? Recently the project got a boost from news that channel owners on its main messenger partner will share ad revenue in TON, and later stablecoin support was rolled out, so on-chain activity has been heating up according to industry sources. Price, however, has cooled off hard after the hype spike and is now sitting back in an old demand pocket.

On the 4H chart, price is parked in the 1.18‑1.25 support zone where we saw strong volume before, while RSI has climbed out of oversold and is trying to build a higher low. That combo plus fading selling volume makes me lean toward a relief bounce rather than a fresh breakdown. I might be wrong, but shorting straight into this kind of demand looks like volunteering as liquidity.

My base case: hold above 1.18 and I’m looking for a push toward 1.30 first, then possibly the thicker supply band around 1.40‑1.45 ✅. If we get a clean 4H close below 1.18 with rising volume, that flips the script and opens room for 1.10 or even lower ⚠️. I’m waiting for a bullish 4H candle or reclaim of 1.24 to join the long side, otherwise I’ll step aside and let the breakdown play out.

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