USDCAD remains one of the stronger bullish structures on the board as monetary policy divergence and institutional positioning continue to favor the US Dollar. The Federal Reserve maintains a significantly higher interest rate environment than the Bank of Canada, providing the greenback with a notable yield advantage. While elevated oil prices continue to offer support to the Canadian Dollar, the broader flow of capital remains tilted toward USD-denominated assets.
Institutional positioning reinforces this outlook.
Recent COT data shows large speculators steadily increasing long USD exposure, while sentiment toward the Canadian Dollar remains more cautious. This suggests that pullbacks may continue to attract buyers rather than signal a broader trend reversal.
📊 Technical Overview
• Weekly structure is pushing toward a major resistance zone near 1.3920
• Daily trend remains constructive following a strong multi-session advance
• Price is currently testing the daily 200-period moving average
• Recent pullback appears corrective after an impulsive move to 1.3869
• H4 demand is clearly established between 1.3750–1.3780
• Market structure continues to favor higher highs and higher lows
The current retracement offers an opportunity to monitor discount pricing within a key demand area before potential continuation higher.
🎯 Trade Plan
Order Type: Buy Limit
Entry: 1.3765
Stop Loss: 1.3695
TP1: 1.3870
TP2: 1.3920
Bias: As long as price remains above the broader support structure, the bullish outlook remains intact. A successful defense of the H4 demand zone could provide the catalyst for a retest of recent highs and a continuation toward the major weekly resistance objective.
Institutional positioning reinforces this outlook.
Recent COT data shows large speculators steadily increasing long USD exposure, while sentiment toward the Canadian Dollar remains more cautious. This suggests that pullbacks may continue to attract buyers rather than signal a broader trend reversal.
📊 Technical Overview
• Weekly structure is pushing toward a major resistance zone near 1.3920
• Daily trend remains constructive following a strong multi-session advance
• Price is currently testing the daily 200-period moving average
• Recent pullback appears corrective after an impulsive move to 1.3869
• H4 demand is clearly established between 1.3750–1.3780
• Market structure continues to favor higher highs and higher lows
The current retracement offers an opportunity to monitor discount pricing within a key demand area before potential continuation higher.
🎯 Trade Plan
Order Type: Buy Limit
Entry: 1.3765
Stop Loss: 1.3695
TP1: 1.3870
TP2: 1.3920
Bias: As long as price remains above the broader support structure, the bullish outlook remains intact. A successful defense of the H4 demand zone could provide the catalyst for a retest of recent highs and a continuation toward the major weekly resistance objective.
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