Gold continues trading under strong medium-term bearish pressure as markets enter one of the most important macro periods of the month. The focus is now fully shifting toward tonight’s Core PCE and Preliminary GDP releases, followed immediately by the monthly candle close tomorrow — a combination that could significantly reshape institutional positioning across USD, bonds, and precious metals.
From the broader macro perspective, the market is still heavily influenced by two major narratives. The first is slowing economic momentum and recession concerns, which continue supporting safe-haven demand for gold. The second is persistent inflation pressure and the Fed’s hawkish stance, which continues supporting higher-for-longer rate expectations and limiting bullish momentum across metals.
This macro conflict is creating increasingly unstable and corrective price action. Gold is no longer trending impulsively upward like previous months, but instead reacting aggressively around liquidity zones, macro data expectations, and institutional positioning ahead of month-end rebalancing.
Technically, gold remains trapped inside the broader descending structure after repeated failures to reclaim upper liquidity zones. Recent recovery attempts toward the demand + trendline confluence areas were rejected again, reinforcing that sellers continue controlling the larger structure.
The latest breakdown has now pushed price back toward a major support zone around 439x–432x. This is becoming one of the most important liquidity regions on the chart because it aligns with previous institutional accumulation zones, lower support structure, and deeper macro positioning ahead of the monthly close.
MAIN SCENARIO
If Core PCE and GDP data continue supporting a stronger USD and higher-for-longer Fed expectations, gold could remain under heavy pressure and extend the bearish continuation toward lower liquidity zones below current support.
As long as price remains below the major descending trendline resistance, the broader market structure still favors sell continuation after recovery.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
If macro data disappoints significantly and USD weakens sharply, gold could attempt a technical rebound from the current support region. However, any recovery would still need strong confirmation above the upper descending structure before a larger bullish reversal can be considered valid.
Short-term bias: bearish with high volatility ahead of macro data.
Medium-term bias: still bearish below major resistance structure.
LucasGrayTrading
From the broader macro perspective, the market is still heavily influenced by two major narratives. The first is slowing economic momentum and recession concerns, which continue supporting safe-haven demand for gold. The second is persistent inflation pressure and the Fed’s hawkish stance, which continues supporting higher-for-longer rate expectations and limiting bullish momentum across metals.
This macro conflict is creating increasingly unstable and corrective price action. Gold is no longer trending impulsively upward like previous months, but instead reacting aggressively around liquidity zones, macro data expectations, and institutional positioning ahead of month-end rebalancing.
Technically, gold remains trapped inside the broader descending structure after repeated failures to reclaim upper liquidity zones. Recent recovery attempts toward the demand + trendline confluence areas were rejected again, reinforcing that sellers continue controlling the larger structure.
The latest breakdown has now pushed price back toward a major support zone around 439x–432x. This is becoming one of the most important liquidity regions on the chart because it aligns with previous institutional accumulation zones, lower support structure, and deeper macro positioning ahead of the monthly close.
MAIN SCENARIO
If Core PCE and GDP data continue supporting a stronger USD and higher-for-longer Fed expectations, gold could remain under heavy pressure and extend the bearish continuation toward lower liquidity zones below current support.
As long as price remains below the major descending trendline resistance, the broader market structure still favors sell continuation after recovery.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
If macro data disappoints significantly and USD weakens sharply, gold could attempt a technical rebound from the current support region. However, any recovery would still need strong confirmation above the upper descending structure before a larger bullish reversal can be considered valid.
Short-term bias: bearish with high volatility ahead of macro data.
Medium-term bias: still bearish below major resistance structure.
LucasGrayTrading
交易進行
Scenario 2 is working correctly as planned, with safe-haven flows and supporting news helping gold surge strongly from the support zone below, nearly 1200 pips higher. After the liquidity sweep at the bottom, the price quickly reclaimed the short-term downtrend channel and returned to retest the old trendline after the breakout.Currently, gold is continuing to extend its recovery to the first demand zone around 448x–449x, almost completely filling the above FVG zone. This is a crucial reaction zone where demand, FVG, and a large downtrend line converge.
If the price continues to maintain momentum and close firmly above this zone, the recovery could extend to higher liquidity zones. Conversely, if strongly rejected at the current demand, medium-term selling pressure is likely to return, following a large bearish structure.
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High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
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Daily trend & Supply/Demand insights 📊
👉 t.me/+cZC_DmEr3OwzOTA1
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
👉 t.me/+cZC_DmEr3OwzOTA1
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
免責聲明
這些資訊和出版物並非旨在提供，也不構成TradingView提供或認可的任何形式的財務、投資、交易或其他類型的建議或推薦。請閱讀使用條款以了解更多資訊。