Gold is still trading inside a rising channel on H4, but recent price action shows signs of hesitation near the upper structure.
🌍 Macro Narrative
Several key developments are influencing gold:
• US–Iran ceasefire remains fragile with renewed tension risks
• Trump rejected Iran’s proposed peace framework, signaling uncertainty
• Strait of Hormuz disruptions continue to threaten oil supply
• Oil volatility keeps inflation expectations unstable
⚠️ Market Context
Recent developments show:
• Market reacting less to headlines, more to expectations
• Inflation risk remains a key driver
• Traders shifting focus toward macro data (PCE / CPI)
👉 Result: price enters a corrective phase inside trend
🧠 Technical Overview (H4)
From a structural perspective:
• Price remains inside an ascending channel
• Recent rejection near upper boundary suggests short-term weakness
• Potential pullback toward Fibo 0.5 (~4,484)
• Intermediate support at 4,612
• Resistance remains at 4,708 → 4,816
👉 This suggests:
A pullback within trend rather than full reversal (for now)
📌 Key Levels
🟢 Support: 4,612
🟢 Major Support (Fibo 0.5): 4,484
🔴 Resistance: 4,708 – 4,816
🚀 Scenario 1 — Bullish (Continuation)
If price holds above 4,612 and shows bullish reaction:
Buyers may step back in.
Potential path:
4,708 → 4,816 → continuation higher
⚠️ Scenario 2 — Bearish (Pullback)
If support breaks:
The correction may extend deeper.
Price could:
• Move toward 4,484 (Fibo 0.5)
• Sweep liquidity before next move
Market Debate
Markets often retrace before continuation — especially inside a channel structure.
So the key question now is:
Is gold preparing for another push higher…
or building a deeper correction before the real move?
🌍 Macro Narrative
Several key developments are influencing gold:
• US–Iran ceasefire remains fragile with renewed tension risks
• Trump rejected Iran’s proposed peace framework, signaling uncertainty
• Strait of Hormuz disruptions continue to threaten oil supply
• Oil volatility keeps inflation expectations unstable
⚠️ Market Context
Recent developments show:
• Market reacting less to headlines, more to expectations
• Inflation risk remains a key driver
• Traders shifting focus toward macro data (PCE / CPI)
👉 Result: price enters a corrective phase inside trend
🧠 Technical Overview (H4)
From a structural perspective:
• Price remains inside an ascending channel
• Recent rejection near upper boundary suggests short-term weakness
• Potential pullback toward Fibo 0.5 (~4,484)
• Intermediate support at 4,612
• Resistance remains at 4,708 → 4,816
👉 This suggests:
A pullback within trend rather than full reversal (for now)
📌 Key Levels
🟢 Support: 4,612
🟢 Major Support (Fibo 0.5): 4,484
🔴 Resistance: 4,708 – 4,816
🚀 Scenario 1 — Bullish (Continuation)
If price holds above 4,612 and shows bullish reaction:
Buyers may step back in.
Potential path:
4,708 → 4,816 → continuation higher
⚠️ Scenario 2 — Bearish (Pullback)
If support breaks:
The correction may extend deeper.
Price could:
• Move toward 4,484 (Fibo 0.5)
• Sweep liquidity before next move
Market Debate
Markets often retrace before continuation — especially inside a channel structure.
So the key question now is:
Is gold preparing for another push higher…
or building a deeper correction before the real move?
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免責聲明
這些資訊和出版物並非旨在提供，也不構成TradingView提供或認可的任何形式的財務、投資、交易或其他類型的建議或推薦。請閱讀使用條款以了解更多資訊。