WHEAT FUTURES Up Date....

WHEAT FUTURES – Institutional Macro, COT, Elliott, Wyckoff & Liquidity Analysis
Executive Summary
Wheat at 590.4 is now sitting in one of the most important zones seen since the 2022 peak at 1364.
What's changed versus last week:
-Commercials dramatically increased longs (+13,907)
-Commercials aggressively reduced shorts (-17,842)
-Specs liquidated longs heavily
-Managed Money dumped longs (-25,555) and added shorts (+12,931)
-Price is now testing the confluence of:
Weekly POC (580)
Weekly 55 EMA (569)
Weekly structure support
Elliott Wave termination zone

This is beginning to look more like capitulation than the beginning of a fresh bear market. Probability
Scenario 1
Commercial accumulation + Wave C completion + Spring
Target:
603 → 620 → 630 → 679
Scenario 2
Final liquidity sweep into 569–563 before reversal
Target:
563 then reversal higher.
Scenario 3
Full bearish continuation
Requires:

DXY >100.5
Real Yield >2.35%
Weekly close below 563
Crop conditions improving materially

AlexandreScaianski

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AlexandreScaianski