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Running Flat Correction Before a Historic Expansion? Ethereum! # Ethereum Daily Chart: Running Flat Correction Before a Historic Expansion? | Elliott Wave Analysis
The current Ethereum structure continues to support the view that the market remains within a larger degree **wave (II)** correction. According to the present Elliott Wave count, this corrective phase may ultimately serve as the foundation for one of the most significant bullish expansions in Ethereum's history.
The primary scenario suggests that Ethereum is developing a **Running Flat correction**, a relatively uncommon but highly important Elliott Wave pattern. Running Flats often appear in exceptionally strong markets, where corrective pressure fails to fully retrace the previous trend, effectively storing momentum for the next impulsive advance.
If the current wave count remains valid, the completion of this larger degree **wave (II)** could initiate a new impulsive cycle capable of driving Ethereum toward substantially higher valuations. The first major objective within this bullish scenario would be the region around **$4,370**, representing only the initial stage of a potentially much larger long-term expansion.
However, an alternative and more aggressive corrective scenario must also be considered.
Under this interpretation, the current market structure may continue developing through additional corrective formations, potentially advancing toward the territory of the previous fourth wave before initiating another decline. Such a development could ultimately complete a larger **Regular Flat correction**, with downside targets extending toward the **$1,305** or even **$907** regions.
At the present time, the evidence continues to support the conclusion that Ethereum remains within a broad sideways corrective environment. Whether this correction ultimately resolves as a **Running Flat**, a **Regular Flat**, or evolves into a more complex corrective combination remains the central question.
What is particularly important is that the current structure continues to respect Elliott Wave rules and guidelines. Until proven otherwise, the existing wave count remains technically valid.
Sometimes the strongest bull markets are born from the longest corrections.
The market is not revealing weakness.
It may simply be preparing for its next expansion.
– Patterns whisper. I listen. – Mr. Nobody 🎧📊
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Has Wave II Completed, or Is Another Leg Down Coming?Bitcoin Elliott Wave Analysis | Has Wave II Ended, or Is This Only the First Leg Down?
Financial markets reward discipline—not certainty.
Every price movement reflects collective market psychology, and the Elliott Wave Principle provides a structured framework for understanding that behavior through objective market structure.
This analysis is based on Elliott Wave rules, guidelines, Fibonacci relationships, channel analysis, and price action—not prediction.
Ultimately, the market will decide which scenario becomes reality.
Primary (Conservative) Scenario
My primary scenario suggests that Wave II may already be complete as a Double Zigzag (W-X-Y) consisting of seven swings.
The key confirmation for this scenario would be a decisive break above Wave X, signaling that the corrective structure has likely ended.
If that occurs, I would expect the market to begin a new impulsive advance. However, even after breaking Wave X, pullbacks should still be expected, as markets rarely move in a straight line. Any corrective retracement should simply be viewed as part of a developing bullish trend rather than a change in the larger direction.
Alternative (Aggressive) Scenario
The second scenario assumes that the current Double Zigzag represents only the first bearish leg within a much larger corrective structure.
Under this interpretation, the market should first develop a corrective rally of any valid Elliott Wave corrective pattern, ideally retracing 38.2%, 50%, or at most 61.8% of the recent decline.
If that recovery remains corrective, another impulsive decline would become the higher-probability outcome.
In that case, Bitcoin could continue lower toward the $40,000–$30,000 region, where the larger corrective structure may finally be completed before the next long-term bullish cycle begins.
What Matters Most
At this stage, price structure is more important than price itself.
Rather than anticipating the market, I prefer to let the wave structure reveal which scenario is unfolding.
A confirmed impulsive advance would strengthen the conservative outlook.
A corrective recovery followed by renewed selling pressure would favor the aggressive scenario.
Until one of these structures is confirmed, both scenarios remain technically valid under Elliott Wave rules.
Risk Management Comes First
Successful trading is not about predicting every move.
It is about adapting to confirmed market structure while protecting capital.
Patience, discipline, and proper risk management remain far more valuable than confidence without confirmation.
The market always provides another opportunity—but only for traders who preserve their capital.
Final Thoughts
This publication represents an independent Elliott Wave study based entirely on objective market structure.
It is not financial advice, nor a prediction of the future.
If market structure changes, my wave count will change with it.
Because in Elliott Wave analysis, flexibility is not weakness—it is respect for the market.
Facts always win.
"Patterns whisper. I listen."
— Mr. Nobody 🎧📊 
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Cronos Group , The Flag, the Flagpole, and a question - July 26SYMBOL: TSX:CRON | DIRECTION: LONG | TIMEFRAME: 23-Day
Published: July 2026
In 2019 Cronos Group was the future of medicine, the future of wellness, and the future of whatever else someone needed it to be that week to justify buying at $30. The stock had risen 14,285% from its 2016 low. A tobacco company invested $1.8 billion. The comments section smelled of ambition and something else entirely. Then the price did what all parabolas do. It corrected. Enthusiastically. For seven years.
What followed has been annotated on the chart with admirable restraint as “The Flag.” Cronos shareholders may have a different word for it. The flagpole, however, measures 14,285%. And the chart then poses the question “Do you know how to measure the glorious profit?” A rhetorical question. Although with cannabis stocks in 2019, nothing was rhetorical.
On the above 23-day chart, RSI is breaking out of a multi-year descending channel for the first time since the 2019 peak. Two observations:
1) RSI breakout. First since 2019. The RSI descending channel that has capped every rally since the peak has just been broken to the upside. On a 23-day chart, that takes time to develop. It has taken seven years. When the momentum structure of a correction this long finally breaks, it is not nothing.
2) Bull divergence Confirmed. signals are stacking at the base. Two Bullish divergence Confirmed prints, both , both at the floor, both arriving as RSI stages its first real recovery. Weak signals at a base are the beginning of the argument, not the conclusion. The RSI breakout is here. The flag structure is here. All three at once is not a coincidence. It is a checklist.
Targets
Not publishing one. The chart has already asked you the question. If you know how to measure a bull flag, you know what the flagpole implies. If you don’t, then don’t guess. Followers will get the answer!
The cannabis sector has spent seven years being comprehensively humiliated. The stocks are uninvestable. The promises were embarrassing. The business models were optimistic to the point of performance art. Nobody is long cannabis. Nobody wants to be seen long cannabis. In fact this idea will be the first published on tradingview after a 5 year nothing burger. It’s a stock nobody wants as RSI breaks a seven-year ceiling, sitting inside a pattern with a 14,285% flagpole. Sure, it’s cannabis. The chart doesn’t know that. As with investment, plant your seeds early before the crowd shows up looking for a taste.
Is it possible price drops further? Sure.
Is it probable? No way dude. Chill.
Ww
Type: Speculative long / educational | Timeframe: 12–36 months
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Disclaimer
This idea is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Cannabis sector stocks carry significant regulatory, operational and market risk. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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XAU/USD 03 July 2026 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Bias and analysis to remain the same as analysis dated 30 June 2026.
Price did not print bullish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation. Price instead printed a new low followed by a bullish CHoCH
Price is currently trading within and established internal range, however, I will continue to monitor price with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade up to either premium of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal low, currently priced at 3,942.100.
Note:
Gold remains volatile as tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran keep safe‑haven demand elevated.
Markets are reacting quickly to every headline, while uncertainty around the Fed’s easing path and shifting U.S. policy under President Trump, especially tariffs continues to fuel choppy price action.
For newer traders, the key is simple, stay flexible and manage risk carefully, as fast spikes and sudden reversals are a normal part of the current XAU/USD environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has printed according to my analysis dated 01 July where I mentioned price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or M15 supply zone before targeting weak internal high, priced at 4,115.810.
Price has printed a bullish iBOS. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue horizontal dotted line.
Price is currently trading within an internal low and fractal high.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or M15 supply zone before targeting weak internal high, priced at 4,195.510. Price may potentially print higher to bring CHoCH positioning closer to recent price action
Note:
Gold remains highly reactive on M15 as geopolitical risk continues to drive quick, headline‑led moves.
The tension between the US, Israel, and Iran is keeping safe‑haven demand elevated, with markets still sensitive to any sign of escalation.
At the same time, shifting US tariff policy under President Trump is adding extra uncertainty, fuelling sharp intraday swings and increasing the likelihood of sudden sentiment flips. Liquidity pockets and whipsaws remain common, making disciplined risk management essential.
Gold’s geopolitical premium is still firmly in place, and until tensions ease, short‑term volatility is likely to stay front‑loaded.
M15 Chart:
S&P 500 Futures Market Recap | NFP Trading, ICT + SMC AnalysisS&P 500 Futures Market Recap | NFP Trading Strategy, ICT Concepts & Smart Money Analysis (July 2, 2026)
Today's session delivered exactly what many traders expect around Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) releases—extreme volatility, engineered liquidity, and a textbook Smart Money reversal from premium pricing. While retail traders likely viewed the move as bullish after price broke previous highs, the higher time frame narrative suggested something very different.
Using ICT concepts, order flow, liquidity, and market structure, let's break down today's ES price action from the 15-minute chart down to the execution timeframe.
## 15 Minute Market Structure Analysis
The higher time frame continued to provide the roadmap throughout the session.
Price was trading inside a major premium pricing zone that had been identified well before the New York session began. The previous day's range had already provided multiple clues that buyers were becoming increasingly vulnerable.
The NFP release became the catalyst that delivered price directly into external liquidity resting above previous swing highs.
Rather than chasing the breakout, the focus remained on what Smart Money would likely do after reaching that objective.
Key observations:
* Major premium pricing zone overhead
* Previous swing highs acting as buy-side liquidity
* Strong probability of a liquidity sweep before reversal
* Daily rejection from premium pricing remained the primary expectation
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## Top Down Analysis: Why Previous Highs Were a Trap
One of the easiest mistakes for developing traders is assuming that breaking previous highs automatically confirms bullish continuation.
In reality, those highs often represent liquidity.
As price continued grinding higher overnight, many retail traders interpreted the trend as strength. From a Smart Money perspective, however, the market was simply creating enough buy orders to facilitate larger institutional selling.
The London session also provided an important clue by retracing almost perfectly into a previous day's Order Block near the 79% retracement before continuing higher.
By the time New York opened, price had already completed much of the higher time frame delivery.
Key concepts:
* London retracement into previous Order Block
* Retail bullish sentiment increasing
* Liquidity building above prior highs
* Higher timeframe objective remained unchanged
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## NFP Market Reaction and Liquidity Sweep
The Non-Farm Payroll release became the engine that delivered price into the final liquidity objective.
Instead of immediately selling, Smart Money first allowed price to explode higher, encouraging breakout buyers and triggering buy stops resting above previous highs.
That final push completed the liquidity grab.
More importantly, it also prevented the daily candle from closing with an excessively large bullish wick by immediately rejecting the highs.
Once liquidity had been collected, aggressive selling entered the market.
The rejection was far more important than the breakout itself.
Highlights:
* NFP spike engineered into external liquidity
* Previous highs swept
* Premium pricing respected
* Immediate rejection confirmed institutional selling
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## ICT Smart Money Concepts Explained
Today's session was an excellent reminder that trend alone should never determine directional bias.
Many traders likely viewed the overnight higher highs as confirmation of bullish continuation.
Instead, those highs became inducement.
Smart Money frequently creates price action that appears obvious before reversing aggressively once enough liquidity has accumulated.
Today's session demonstrated:
* Liquidity engineering
* Premium vs discount pricing
* External liquidity targeting
* Institutional rejection after liquidity collection
This is why context always outweighs individual candlestick patterns.
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## 2 Minute Trade Execution Breakdown
After the NFP release, execution opportunities became much clearer on the lower timeframes.
Rather than entering during the explosive news candle, patience allowed price to produce:
* Small Order Block
* Market Structure Shift
* Displacement
* Retracement
* High probability entry
While the overall move higher was extremely aggressive, the cleanest execution opportunity actually came once displacement confirmed institutional participation.
Although today's reversal wasn't the ideal textbook setup for my personal trading model, disciplined traders still had opportunities to participate after confirmation rather than predicting the reversal.
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## Key Trading Lessons From Today's Session
Today's market reinforced several important principles that consistently appear in Smart Money trading.
• Previous highs often represent liquidity—not resistance to buy.
• Major news events frequently provide the volatility required to complete institutional objectives.
• Premium pricing significantly increases the probability of bearish reactions.
• Top-down analysis provides context long before lower timeframe entries appear.
• Waiting for displacement and confirmation remains safer than attempting to fade explosive news candles.
• Liquidity is often the destination—not the reason for entering a trade.
## Final Market Outlook
Today's ES session perfectly illustrated why higher timeframe context should always come before lower timeframe execution.
The NFP release acted as the catalyst—not the reason—for the reversal. The real story had already been developing overnight as liquidity continued building above previous highs.
Once price completed its objective inside premium pricing, institutional selling entered aggressively and delivered one of the strongest intraday reversals of the week.
For traders studying ICT concepts, Smart Money Concepts (SMC), order flow, and liquidity, today's session serves as another excellent example of why patience, top-down analysis, and waiting for confirmation consistently outperform chasing momentum.
If you found this market recap helpful, consider following for daily ES futures analysis, ICT education, Smart Money Concepts, liquidity mapping, and high-probability trading setups.
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