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XAUUSD: ABC Pullback May Prepare the Next Bullish Wave
Gold is still holding a constructive bullish structure after the strong recovery from the lower base. From Kelly’s view, the market has already created an impulsive move higher, and the current pullback may simply be an ABC correction before price attempts another upside continuation.
The key idea is simple: gold may correct first, but the bullish structure remains active while price holds above the trendline and the main buy zone.
⟡ Market structure
The chart shows gold recovering strongly from the 3,960 area, then building higher lows along the rising trendline. Price pushed into the 4,130–4,140 region before slowing down, which is normal after a strong bullish leg.
Gold is now trading around 4,118, close to the short-term support area. The first reaction zone sits around 4,100–4,105, where a small buy scalping setup may appear.
The more important zone is the 4,068–4,075 area. This is marked as the possible end of the ABC correction. If buyers defend this zone, gold may start a new upward wave towards the upper trendline and the 4,150–4,160 target area.
➤ Key levels
◌ 4,100–4,105: buy scalping zone and short-term reaction area
◌ 4,068–4,075: main buy zone and possible ABC completion
◌ 4,118–4,123: current price reaction area
◌ 4,130–4,140: nearest resistance zone
◌ 4,150–4,160: upside target and trendline target area
◌ Below 4,068: area where the bullish setup starts to weaken
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to have completed a short bullish wave sequence from the lower base. After that, the current movement may be forming an ABC correction.
Wave A is the first pullback from the recent high.
Wave B may form a small rebound around the 4,100 zone.
Wave C may complete around 4,068–4,075 if price continues to correct deeper.
If wave C ends inside this buy zone and a bullish confirmation candle appears, gold may begin the next continuation phase. The next target would be 4,130–4,140 first, then 4,150–4,160 if momentum expands.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for gold to complete the ABC correction around the buy zone before looking for continuation.
Entry zone: 4,068–4,075 if bullish confirmation appears
Scalping entry zone: 4,100–4,105 only if price reacts strongly
Stop loss: below the confirmed wave C low or below 4,060
Take profit 1: 4,130–4,140
Take profit 2: 4,150–4,160
Take profit 3: higher trendline area if bullish momentum continues
Alternative scenario: if gold breaks below 4,068 with strong bearish pressure, the ABC bullish setup weakens. In that case, price may need to form a deeper base before the next recovery becomes reliable.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, this is a bullish continuation structure, but the market needs a healthy correction before the next strong move. Buying directly after a strong push is not the cleanest plan.
The better setup is to wait for gold to pull back into support, then watch whether buyers defend the ABC completion zone.
Gold is correcting inside a bullish structure.
If the buy zone holds, the next upside wave may continue towards 4,150–4,160.
Share your view below.
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U.S. Dollar Index Reclaims 101.00, Can Buyers Extend the RecoverMarket View
The U.S. Dollar Index remains in a broader bullish structure on the 4H chart, while the latest rebound suggests that buyers are attempting to regain short-term control.
After rising from the 98.00 area, DXY formed a clear sequence of higher highs and higher lows before reaching the 101.60–101.70 region. Since then, price has moved into a broad consolidation, with repeated pullbacks finding support above 100.50.
The latest recovery back above 101.00 is constructive, but the index is still trading below the recent swing highs. For now, the market remains in a bullish consolidation rather than a confirmed breakout.
Key Resistance Zone
First resistance: 101.20–101.35
This is the nearest short-term resistance zone and the first area buyers need to reclaim.
A confirmed move above this region would strengthen the current recovery.
Second resistance: 101.45–101.60
This area has produced several recent rejections and remains the main supply zone inside the current range.
Major resistance: 101.65–101.80
This is the recent swing-high region and the key breakout zone.
A sustained move above 101.80 would confirm a fresh higher high and strengthen the broader bullish outlook.
Key Support Zone
First support: 100.90–101.00
This is the nearest short-term support area and an important pivot around the current price.
Holding above this region would keep the latest recovery structure intact.
Second support: 100.60–100.75
This area has attracted buyers during recent pullbacks and remains an important structural support.
Major support: 100.35–100.50
This is the lower boundary of the recent consolidation.
A confirmed break below this zone would weaken the short-term bullish structure and place sellers back in control.
Market Sentiment
Market sentiment is cautiously bullish.
The latest rebound has improved short-term momentum, while the broader trend still favors buyers. However, repeated hesitation below the recent highs shows that the market still needs a confirmed breakout.
Above 101.35, bullish momentum may strengthen.
Below 100.90, bearish pressure may begin to increase.
Please share your view below:
Will DXY hold above 101.00 and break through 101.35 toward the recent highs? Or will sellers defend resistance and push the index back toward 100.70?
More market structure and key level updates will be shared regularly. S&P 500 Holds Near Record Highs Market View
The S&P 500 remains in a broader bullish structure on the 4H chart, but price is currently consolidating near the upper end of the recent range.
After the strong recovery from the April low around 6,350, the index continued to form higher highs and higher lows before reaching the 7,600 area. Since then, momentum has slowed and price has moved sideways between support and resistance.
The latest recovery back toward 7,500 shows that buyers remain active, but repeated hesitation near the recent highs suggests that the market still needs a confirmed breakout before the next bullish leg can develop.
Key Resistance Zone
First resistance: 7,540–7,580
This is the nearest short-term resistance area and the upper boundary of the current consolidation.
A confirmed move above this zone would suggest that buyers are regaining momentum.
Major resistance: 7,600–7,650
This area includes the recent swing highs and remains the key breakout zone.
A sustained move above 7,650 would confirm a fresh higher high and strengthen the broader bullish continuation outlook.
Key Support Zone
First support: 7,440–7,480
This is the nearest short-term support area and the first zone buyers need to defend.
Holding above this region would keep the current consolidation structure intact.
Second support: 7,350–7,400
This area represents a more important structural support and the lower part of the recent trading range.
A break below it would weaken short-term bullish momentum.
Major support: 7,250–7,300
This is the deeper support zone formed during the previous correction.
If the price falls below this region, the broader bullish structure would come under greater pressure.
Market Sentiment
Market sentiment remains cautiously bullish.
The broader trend still favors buyers, but repeated hesitation near the highs shows that the market is waiting for stronger confirmation before extending the rally.
Above 7,580, bullish momentum may strengthen.
Below 7,440, corrective pressure may increase.
Please share your view below:
Will the S&P 500 break above 7,600 and continue toward new highs? Or will sellers defend resistance and push the index back toward 7,400?
More market structure and key level updates will be shared regularly. 
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BTC Broke Out And The Higher Timeframe Finally Confirmed.BTC Broke Out And The Higher Timeframe Finally Confirmed.
Yesterday's complaint was that BTC broke the shelf on a one-timeframe bid. That changed overnight. Bitcoin ran to 66,387, up 1.64 percent, and the 4H conviction that refused to confirm all month rotated to maximum - top quartile, structure flipped bull, entry forming. The confirmation finally arrived. The problem is what arrived with it: the 4H is now reading euphoria, high-sweep anti-signals are active across all three timeframes, and both the hourly and daily conviction surfaces have faded to bottom-quartile even as price makes new highs. Confirmation showing up at the same moment as euphoria is the classic late signal. Neutral.
Resistance: 66,387.40 - the session high
Key resistance: 66,636.66 - the announcement level overhead
Current price: 66,284
Support: 65,890.29 - first level to hold
Key support: 65,033.53 - the broken shelf, now support
Structural floor: 64,400.89 - the deeper hold
Two paths from here:
The breakout extends and euphoria resolves into trend. If BTC holds 65,890 and the hourly conviction rotates back up to match the 4H, the move has legs toward 66,636 and beyond. Genuine top-quartile 4H conviction is a real change from the last three weeks.
The confirmation marks the top. Euphoria plus high-sweeps on every timeframe plus bottom-quartile hourly and daily conviction at new highs is textbook exhaustion. A loss of 65,890 and then 65,033 makes this the third failed push of the month, and the one that trapped the most people.
The higher timeframe finally believed it - right as euphoria showed up and the hourly stopped believing. That is not a reason to be short, but it is every reason not to chase. 65,033 is what has to hold to keep the breakout real.
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