SA Asks: What's the best critical minerals stock play right now?

Critical minerals, and who controls them, are once again in the spotlight, with the topic reportedly being high on the agenda for Wednesday's meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and China's President Xi Jinping.

Mining and distribution of the minerals were also a key component of Trump's recently announced deal with Denmark over control of Greenland, which has extensive deposits of rare earths and other minerals.

We asked Seeking Alpha analysts Everyday Options, CAN Analyst, and Grassroots Trading what they viewed as the best critical minerals stock play right now.

Everyday Options: For me, the best critical minerals play right now is Idaho Strategic Resources IDR, because it is one of the only tickers that doesn't need China to misbehave or a check from Washington. Critical Metals CRML is another interesting name that I would watch very closely.

I think the critical minerals sphere is of high importance these days, partly due to the U.S.-China negotiations but also the recent U.S.-Denmark-Greenland deal that was signed on September 22.

As a Dane, I find the latter particularly interesting. One clause in the agreement bans investors from outside NATO and the EU from taking control, gaining significant influence, or accessing non-public information within Greenland's resource extraction sector. The deal did not result in any licenses being given out or any cash being given to already-established companies in Greenland.

Critical Metals CRML holds what it calls Greenland's only rare earth exploitation permit, which could play a crucial role in the near future, but CRML is still several years away from being production-ready. Therefore, it is a name to watch closely, but not necessarily the best play at the moment.

The second thing I want to mention is that China matters more than the Greenland deal. The U.S. and China are negotiating an extension of the rare earth truce that is set to expire in November, and when China keeps the tap open on this, any company selling at spot prices is hurt.

Take for instance United States Antimony UAMY, which cut its 2026 revenue guidance roughly in half after antimony prices fell. MP Materials MP and USA Rare Earth USAR are solid names, but trade heavily on headlines and narratives rather than fundamentals.

For these reasons, Idaho Strategic Resources IDR is my pick for the best play right now because it is less sensitive to headlines. It also has a profitable gold mine segment that won't be hurt if the U.S.-China negotiations result in an extension. Cash from the gold mine funds its rare earth exploration on U.S. soil, specifically at Lemhi Pass and Diamond Creek.

For those more interested in fund exposure, I would recommend the Sprott Rare Earths Ex-China ETF REXC, which is another good way to gain exposure. It also holds IDR.

CAN Analyst: It's hard for me to say which companies in the critical minerals sector are going to transform growing demand into profitable business. A lot of these companies still need financing, permits, or to successfully start production, which I believe is too risky.

Currently, I'm looking more at a wider basket of companies through Sprott Critical Materials ETF SETM, which allows distribution of risk among copper, uranium, lithium, silver, and rare earth companies. Freeport-McMoRan FCX, Cameco CCJ, and Lynas LYSCF are among its largest holdings. I like that the result depends on different commodity markets and already operating producers, while at the same time leaving space for developing projects. 

I would like to note, however, that this is still a risky investment, as the fund does not give security against commodity price swings, which are mostly cyclical.

Grassroots Trading: My choice here is MP Materials MP. The company may not have the most exciting resource story in the bunch. But unlike most critical minerals companies, it has already transitioned from owning a strategically important asset to operating a real industrial business.

The company’s arrangement with Uncle Sam is certainly worth a second glance. The Department of War provided MP with a 10-year price floor of $110 per kilogram for NdPr. It also committed to ensuring buyers for all the output from the company's planned 10X magnet plant for 10 years. That’s a lot of protection for a mining firm.

Then MP goes on to execute. During the second quarter, NdPr production jumped 41% year over year. Its Magnetics segment also generated positive adjusted EBITDA as the company's U.S. magnet operation continued to scale. And with about $1.45B in cash and short-term investments, the company has plenty of capital at its disposal. MP is already worth about $8.7B, so this is hardly a hidden gem.

USA Rare Earth USAR is probably the challenger that I find the most noteworthy after tying the knot with Serra Verde. This gives the company a leg up in the heavy rare earth space, with the business also benefiting from a nice $1.55B government-supported off-take vehicle.

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