OPEN-SOURCE SCRIPT
Trend Survival Matrix
Most trend tools tell you which way the trend is going, but not how late you are in it. The Trend Survival Matrix answers that directly. It tracks the live trend across three timescales (short, medium, and long EMA regimes) and measures each one's age — the number of bars since it last flipped. Then, from every completed trend in the chart's history, it builds an empirical run-length distribution and estimates a conditional survival probability: the odds the current trend lasts at least 5, 10, or 20 more bars given how long it has already run. Crucially, those odds are conditioned on the volatility regime each historical run was born in (low / normal / high ATR-percentile buckets), so a long, calm trend isn't judged against runs that formed in chaotic conditions.
The panel reads left to right: direction, current age, the typical (median) run length for that regime, survival odds at each horizon, and a maturity state — FRESH, HEALTHY, MATURING, EXTENDED, or EXHAUSTION — driven by an overextension z-score (how many standard deviations the current age sits above the historical mean). On the chart, a ribbon between the primary EMA pair tints by direction and fades as survival decays, so a durable trend looks solid while a fragile, overextended one visibly thins out. Markers flag new trends, and a once-per-run label warns when survival drops below your threshold — useful for deciding whether to add, tighten stops, or prepare to fade.
Everything is empirical and inspectable — the survival figures come straight from the instrument's own history, not a black box or preset numbers. The engine is fully non-repainting (state advances only on confirmed bars, with no higher-timeframe requests), so the readings stay stable when you switch chart timeframes. Where there aren't enough historical samples to condition on, the panel honestly reports LOW DATA and a confidence flag rather than showing a made-up probability. Works on any symbol and timeframe; tune the EMA lengths, horizons, and volatility buckets to your market.
The panel reads left to right: direction, current age, the typical (median) run length for that regime, survival odds at each horizon, and a maturity state — FRESH, HEALTHY, MATURING, EXTENDED, or EXHAUSTION — driven by an overextension z-score (how many standard deviations the current age sits above the historical mean). On the chart, a ribbon between the primary EMA pair tints by direction and fades as survival decays, so a durable trend looks solid while a fragile, overextended one visibly thins out. Markers flag new trends, and a once-per-run label warns when survival drops below your threshold — useful for deciding whether to add, tighten stops, or prepare to fade.
Everything is empirical and inspectable — the survival figures come straight from the instrument's own history, not a black box or preset numbers. The engine is fully non-repainting (state advances only on confirmed bars, with no higher-timeframe requests), so the readings stay stable when you switch chart timeframes. Where there aren't enough historical samples to condition on, the panel honestly reports LOW DATA and a confidence flag rather than showing a made-up probability. Works on any symbol and timeframe; tune the EMA lengths, horizons, and volatility buckets to your market.
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Institutional-desk · 10+ yrs building trading algos
Syndicate Ultimate · 4 systems · 1 bundle
· 1 payment · lifetime access
Gold · FX · NQ/ES · private systems
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TG channel
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Syndicate Ultimate · 4 systems · 1 bundle
· 1 payment · lifetime access
Gold · FX · NQ/ES · private systems
syndicate001.com
TG channel
t.me/aisyndicate001
免責聲明
這些資訊和出版物並非旨在提供，也不構成TradingView提供或認可的任何形式的財務、投資、交易或其他類型的建議或推薦。請閱讀使用條款以了解更多資訊。
開源腳本
秉持TradingView一貫精神，這個腳本的創作者將其設為開源，以便交易者檢視並驗證其功能。向作者致敬！您可以免費使用此腳本，但請注意，重新發佈代碼需遵守我們的社群規範。
Institutional-desk · 10+ yrs building trading algos
Syndicate Ultimate · 4 systems · 1 bundle
· 1 payment · lifetime access
Gold · FX · NQ/ES · private systems
syndicate001.com
TG channel
t.me/aisyndicate001
Syndicate Ultimate · 4 systems · 1 bundle
· 1 payment · lifetime access
Gold · FX · NQ/ES · private systems
syndicate001.com
TG channel
t.me/aisyndicate001
免責聲明
這些資訊和出版物並非旨在提供，也不構成TradingView提供或認可的任何形式的財務、投資、交易或其他類型的建議或推薦。請閱讀使用條款以了解更多資訊。