Daily Bias Intelligence [tradewsamet]

Daily Bias Intelligence [tradewsamet] is a statistical daily-context, historical-bias, range-analysis, intraday-state, calibration, and visualization indicator designed to help traders study how the current trading day compares with completed historical trading days.

The script is built around one central idea:

Daily bias should not be reduced to one weekday percentage or one directional signal.

A trading day develops inside several overlapping historical contexts. Today's weekday, yesterday's direction, the preceding three-day regime, recent market behavior, directional move skew, current time-of-day state, prior-day high/low interaction, range development, and session timing can all describe different parts of the same day.

Daily Bias Intelligence organizes these observations into one transparent analytical framework.

The script can:

• maintain a rolling history of completed trading days
• measure historical weekday directional behavior
• compare today's context with similar previous-day and three-day regimes
• measure recent completed-day directional behavior and Move Skew
• apply sample-size and statistical requirements before historical checks influence the main model
• combine qualified checks into a sample-weighted Daily Bias Score
• classify Strong Bullish / Strong Bearish historical-bias states
• calculate weekday P10 / P25 / P50 / P75 / P90 return distributions
• adjust historical movement for changing volatility regimes
• compare the developing day with historical days at approximately the same point in time
• track prior-day high / low behavior
• study where daily highs and lows historically formed
• measure current daily-range usage and directional streak behavior
• measure Asia / London / New York contribution by weekday
• audit strong-call and expected-range calibration
• display radar, statistics, weekday charts, day boxes, levels, and oscillator views
• provide TradingView alert conditions for important daily-context events

Daily Bias Intelligence is intended as a transparent statistical research and historical-review framework.

It is not a broker execution system, TradingView Strategy Tester, probability-of-profit model, or guarantee of future market direction.

Daily Bias Intelligence maintains a rolling database of completed trading days and uses that history to describe the statistical environment surrounding the current trading day.

The indicator separates three different types of information:

Observed historical statistics

Examples include weekday up-day rates, prior-day break rates, session contribution, and range behavior.

Modeled context

Examples include the Daily Bias Score and statistical-significance classifications.

Developing current-day information

Examples include today's return versus the prior close, current range, today's high/low, and NOW-state comparison.

The primary interface can display:

• five-factor Bullish / Bearish Radar
• Daily Bias Score
• Strong Bullish / Strong Bearish state
• four-card Statistics Panel
• weekday directional chart and ALL-days baseline
• calibration scorecard
• P10–P90 and P25–P75 expected ranges
• weekday median and expected absolute movement
• prior-day highs and lows with break markers
• daily range boxes and result labels
• live current-day percentage
• contextual candle coloring
• Waveform, Heat Stripes, or Bar Columns

The indicator is designed to provide context before independent trading decisions rather than creating automatic trade instructions.

A simple daily-bias model might ask only:

How often did Monday close higher?

Daily Bias Intelligence asks several additional questions.

• What direction did the previous trading day close?
• What was the net direction of the preceding three completed days?
• What has recent completed-day behavior looked like?
• Has historical movement on this weekday been concentrated more on the upside or downside?
• Is the supporting sample large enough?
• Is the observed difference statistically separated from 50%?
• What movement distribution historically belongs to this weekday?
• What happened historically when price was in today's current state at approximately this point in the day?
• How often are prior-day highs and lows broken?
• When do the final daily high and low typically form?
• How much of a normal daily range has already been used?

The workflow is:

completed trading days
→ historical context classification
→ sample validation
→ statistical filtering
→ weighted Daily Bias Score
→ optional strong-bias classification
→ weekday movement distribution
→ live intraday context
→ historical calibration

The indicator is designed to answer:

What does the completed historical dataset say about the type of trading day currently developing?

A basic daily-bias tool may calculate one historical percentage and convert it directly into a bullish or bearish label.

Daily Bias Intelligence uses a layered model instead.

Historical checks first require sufficient observations.

Directional rates are then evaluated relative to a neutral reference.

Eligible observations are combined through sample-aware weighting.

Strong classifications are separately gated.

Expected movement is calculated from a weekday-specific historical distribution.

Current intraday state is then studied independently from the opening historical-bias model.

Finally, previous strong classifications and range projections are evaluated after their corresponding trading days complete.

The structure is:

historical observations
→ sample quality
→ statistical evidence
→ modeled bias
→ live context
→ later calibration

A historical observation can exist without being statistically strong.

A Daily Bias Score can lean bullish or bearish without producing a Strong Bullish / Strong Bearish classification.

A strong historical bias can still fail.

A wide expected range says nothing by itself about direction.

The script keeps these concepts separate instead of forcing every statistic into one entry arrow.

The engine stores completed trading-day information in aligned historical arrays.

A stored historical day can contain:

• raw daily return
• volatility-normalized return
• trading weekday
• previous-day direction known at that day's open
• prior three-day regime known at that day's open
• raw daily price change
• Asia / London / New York contribution
• prior-day high / low break state
• high / low break hold state
• session of the final high and low
• elapsed time until the final high and low
• intraday state relative to the prior close
• completed daily range
• directional streak entering the day

When the next trading day begins, the previous day is finalized and added to the historical dataset.

The model then rebuilds the current day's statistical context from completed observations.

This means the principal historical bias model does not require today's future closing result in order to calculate today's opening context.

The Bullish / Bearish Radar summarizes five historical checks.

WEEKDAY

The up-day rate of completed trading days sharing today's weekday.

PREV DAY

The up-day rate of historical days whose previous day moved in the same direction as yesterday.

3D REGIME

The up-day rate of historical days whose preceding three-day net move had the same directional sign as today's regime definition.

RECENT

The up-day rate across the most recent completed-day sample.

MOVE SKEW

The share of today's-weekday absolute historical movement that occurred in the positive direction.

Radar values represent historical observed shares, not probabilities.

The five checks also overlap, so they should not be interpreted as five independent forecasts.

Every historical percentage carries a sample size.

Minimum Sample controls how much historical depth is required before a check can influence the primary Daily Bias Score.

Directional-rate checks use a Wilson 95% interval.

A raw rate slightly above 50% is not automatically considered statistically bullish.

The check must:

• satisfy Minimum Sample
• have its Wilson interval fully above 50%

The equivalent bearish condition requires the interval to sit fully below 50%.

Move Skew uses a separate Student-t based test on the historical mean return.

These tests are historical evidence filters. They do not convert historical statistics into guaranteed future probabilities.

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The model keeps the observed percentage, supporting sample size, and statistical classification as separate pieces of information.

Historical checks that satisfy their minimum sample requirement can contribute to the Daily Bias Score.

Each eligible check is measured relative to the neutral 50 level.

Its influence is weighted using the square root of its sample size.

This allows deeper samples to receive additional weight without allowing a very large sample to dominate the model linearly.

Conceptually:

validated historical share
→ distance from 50
→ √N sample weighting
→ weighted combination
→ Daily Bias Score

A score above 50 represents bullish historical context.

A score below 50 represents bearish historical context.

A score of 60 does not mean there is a 60% probability that price will close higher.

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A directional Daily Bias Score does not automatically become a strong classification.

Minimum Bias controls the required distance from the neutral 50 level.

When Require Significant Check is enabled, a Strong Bullish Day additionally requires:

• at least one statistically significant bullish check
• no statistically significant bearish checks

A Strong Bearish Day requires the opposite.

The engine also uses a warm-up requirement before strong classifications are allowed.

A strong classification should be interpreted as:

The historical conditions used by this model are unusually aligned in this direction.

It should not be interpreted as certainty about today's final close.

The weekday chart displays the directional history of available trading weekdays.

Each weekday can show:

• historical up-day rate
• completed sample size
• Wilson 95% interval
• average return
• average absolute move

Today's weekday is highlighted.

An optional ALL column displays the broader all-days directional baseline.

This comparison matters because an apparently strong weekday rate can be less meaningful when the instrument already has a similar unconditional directional drift.

Example:

Monday historical up-rate: 58%
All-days historical up-rate: 57%

The Monday number is above 50%, but its difference from the instrument's normal historical behavior is small.

When sufficient observations exist for today's weekday, the script builds a historical movement sample.

From this sample it calculates:

• P10
• P25
• P50
• P75
• P90

P10–P90 represents the broader historical distribution.

P25–P75 represents the central historical distribution.

P50 represents the historical median.

In Volatility-Adjusted mode, each historical return is normalized using the volatility available at that historical day's open and rescaled using today's volatility reference.

These ranges are empirical historical quantiles.

They are not guaranteed support/resistance boundaries or Take Profit levels.

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The NOW card studies the developing trading day from a different perspective.

During completed historical days, the script stores whether price was above or below the prior close at different stages of the trading day.

During today's developing session, it finds historical observations that were:

• at approximately the same stage of the trading day
• on the same side of their prior close

The model then measures how often those historical days eventually closed on that same side.

This distinguishes:

Price is currently above yesterday's close

from:

Historically, when price was already above yesterday's close around this point of the trading day, how often did it remain above into the final close?

The NOW card also compares this conditional result with the broader all-days baseline.

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Historical observations are completed days.

Today's live state remains provisional while the trading day develops.

Daily Bias Intelligence can extend completed prior-day highs and lows forward on the price chart.

Each level remains active until price trades through it on a confirmed chart bar.

When a break occurs:

• the level stops extending
• the line becomes visually muted
• the configured break marker is displayed

Historical statistics separately measure:

• prior-day high break rate
• prior-day low break rate
• both-side break rate
• neither-side / inside rate
• high-break hold rate
• low-break hold rate

A wick through the level counts as a break under the current model.

Prior-day highs and lows are analytical reference levels, not guaranteed support or resistance.

The indicator studies where and when completed trading days formed their final highs and lows.

For intraday charts, each completed high and low is associated with one of three fixed UTC windows:

• Asia — 21:00 to 08:00 UTC
• London — 08:00 to 13:00 UTC
• New York — 13:00 to 21:00 UTC

The HIGH / LOW TIMING card can display:

• the session that historically produced the most daily highs
• the session that historically produced the most daily lows
• how often the final high had already formed by the current point in the day
• how often the final low had already formed
• the session containing today's current high and low

Timing precision depends on the active chart timeframe.

The STREAK & RANGE card combines two additional daily-context questions.

Directional streak

The script identifies consecutive positive or negative completed days entering the current trading day and studies historical days that followed a comparable streak.

Range development

The script calculates recent average daily high-low range and compares it with today's developing range.

The card can show:

• recent average range
• today's range so far
• percentage of normal range already used
• percentage of historical days that ultimately became wider than today's current range

This helps distinguish a relatively compressed day from one that has already consumed an unusually large share of its recent historical range.

Intraday price changes are attributed bar by bar to the fixed UTC session model.

For today's weekday, Daily Bias Intelligence calculates the historical average percentage contribution of:

• Asia
• London
• New York

Session contribution measures historical price movement.

It does not measure order flow or institutional activity.

The UTC windows do not dynamically adjust for daylight-saving changes.

Daily Bias Intelligence includes a calibration layer so important model outputs can be evaluated after the fact.

CALLS

Tracks completed Strong Bullish / Strong Bearish classifications and compares their directional hit rate with baseline drift.

RANGE HIT

Tracks how frequently completed trading days closed inside:

• P10–P90
• P25–P75

|MOVE|

Displays the historical average absolute movement for today's weekday and compares it with the all-days average.

SESSIONS

Displays historical average Asia, London, and New York contribution for today's weekday.

Pine Script®

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A projection is evaluated only after the corresponding trading day later completes.

The final result is not used to create the earlier projection being evaluated.

The lower pane supports several presentation styles.

Off

Keeps the pane focused primarily on statistical panels.

Waveform

Displays the current day's running positive and negative excursion relative to the prior close.

Heat Stripes

Displays developing daily movement as a volatility-normalized background together with a rolling-return line.

Bar Columns

Displays the developing daily return as columns.

These views describe price behavior and do not independently determine the Daily Bias Score.

The script can frame each trading day's high-low range with a Day Box.

A completed day's box receives its final contextual color after the day completes.

Today's live box remains dashed and updates as the high and low develop.

Completed daily-result labels can display the final daily percentage return.

Today's live percentage can also be displayed separately.

Candle coloring can compare current price with the previous completed trading-day close.

Vs Prior Close

Price above the reference uses the bullish candle color.

Price below the reference uses the bearish candle color.

Because today's price is live, the contextual color can change throughout the session.

Off

Leaves the chart's native candle colors unchanged.

Candle coloring is visual context only.

Daily Bias Intelligence includes TradingView alert conditions for:

• Strong Bullish Day
• Strong Bearish Day
• Day Above Weekday P90
• Day Below Weekday P10
• Any Daily Bias Intelligence Alert

Strong-day alerts relate to the historical context generated for the new trading day.

P90 / P10 events trigger only after a confirmed chart bar closes beyond the corresponding weekday range level.

Alerts are monitoring tools and do not execute broker orders.

For a specific alert:

1. Add Daily Bias Intelligence [tradewsamet] to the chart.
2. Open TradingView's Create Alert dialog.
3. Select Daily Bias Intelligence [tradewsamet].
4. Select the required alert event.
5. Choose the notification method.
6. Configure the alert frequency.
7. Test the alert before relying on it.

For a combined workflow:

1. Add the indicator to the chart.
2. Open Create Alert.
3. Select Daily Bias Intelligence [tradewsamet].
4. Select Any Daily Bias Intelligence Alert.
5. Configure the notification method.
6. Test the events on the intended symbol and timeframe.

If the script, symbol, timeframe, or important settings change materially, recreate the alert when necessary.

A practical workflow:

1. Add Daily Bias Intelligence [tradewsamet] to a standard candlestick chart.
2. Make sure enough historical trading days are loaded for the selected Lookback and Minimum Sample.
3. Begin with Volatility-Adjusted Return Units if you want historical movement normalized across changing volatility regimes.
4. Review the Bullish / Bearish Radar.
5. Check the sample size behind each observation.
6. Review the Daily Bias Score and strong-state classification.
7. Compare today's weekday with the ALL baseline.
8. Review P10–P90, P25–P75, P50, and expected absolute movement.
9. Use NOW to compare today's developing state with similar completed historical days.
10. Review prior-day high / low behavior.
11. Review high / low timing.
12. Review streak and daily-range usage.
13. Review session contribution.
14. Use CALLS and RANGE HIT to judge calibration over meaningful samples.
15. Use alerts as monitoring assistance rather than automatic execution.

The indicator should be combined with independent market structure, liquidity, volatility, news, execution, position-sizing, and account-risk analysis.

⚙️ Statistics Engine

• Lookback Trading Days — number of completed trading days retained.
• Return Units — Volatility-Adjusted / Raw %.
• Volatility Length — completed-day volatility sample.
• Recent Window — completed days used by RECENT.
• Minimum Sample — minimum N required for qualified statistical use.

🧠 Bias Intelligence

• Minimum Bias — required Daily Bias Score displacement from 50.
• Require Significant Check — requires compatible statistical evidence.

📊 Oscillator & Statistics

• Statistics Panel
• Panel Position
• Panel Width / Height
• Text Size
• Plot Style
• Rolling Line
• Today's Expected Range
• Weekday Median
• Daily Result Labels
• Label Location
• Days Shown

📍 Prior Day High / Low

• Show Prior Day High / Low
• Days Kept
• Break Marker

📦 Day Boxes

• Show Day Boxes
• Box Fill Transparency

🧭 Weekday Chart & Scorecard

• Show Weekday Chart
• Show Scorecard
• Main Chart / Pane placement
• Position
• Width
• Bar Area Height
• Show All-Days Column

🔷 Bullish / Bearish Radar

• Show Radar
• Offset
• Radius Bars
• Radius σ

🕯️ Chart Candles

• Candle Colouring — Vs Prior Close / Off
• Bullish Candle Color
• Bearish Candle Color

🎨 Theme & Colours

• Auto
• Dark
• Light
• supporting visual accent controls

Visual and theme changes do not alter the underlying historical calculations.

Daily returns, weekday statistics, volatility normalization, confidence intervals, quantiles, daily highs/lows, and prior-day levels are established analytical concepts.

Daily Bias Intelligence does not claim ownership of those individual concepts.

Its originality lies in how they are coordinated into one completed-day state model.

The implementation combines:

completed-day historical storage
→ weekday context
→ previous-day context
→ three-day regime
→ recent directional context
→ Move Skew
→ Minimum Sample validation
→ Wilson / Student-t statistical filtering
→ √N-weighted Daily Bias Score
→ strong-bias gating
→ volatility-adjusted weekday quantiles
→ same-time-of-day state matching
→ prior-day high / low behavior
→ daily high / low timing
→ streak and range intelligence
→ session contribution
→ sequential range and directional calibration

Distinctive implementation choices include:

• separating observed historical rates from modeled bias
• preventing thin samples from influencing the primary score
• applying statistical filters before strong classifications
• weighting eligible observations by square-root sample depth
• separating live current-day state from completed historical results
• storing historical intraday state for same-time-of-day comparison
• comparing strong-call results with baseline drift
• evaluating projected ranges only after their corresponding days complete

The modules serve one coordinated objective:

making the historical structure surrounding the current trading day visible, measurable, and reviewable.

Daily Bias Intelligence depends on available chart history.

Important points:

• Low intraday timeframes can contain fewer completed trading days within the same loaded-bar allowance.
• Every rate should be interpreted together with its sample size.
• Minimum Sample prevents thin observations from influencing key parts of the model.
• Expected weekday ranges require sufficient weekday history.
• Volatility-Adjusted mode changes movement normalization but not directional up/down classification.
• RECENT uses at least the Minimum Sample requirement when the configured Recent Window is smaller.
• Flat completed days are treated as not-up.
• Today's return, high, low, range, NOW state, and contextual candle colors remain live.
• Statistical significance is not certainty.
• Strong historical states and range projections can fail.
• Historical relationships can change as market regimes change.
• Changing important settings rebuilds the historical model under the new configuration.

This script has important limitations:

• Historical frequency is not future probability.
• A statistically significant historical observation does not guarantee today's result.
• The five radar checks overlap and are not independent evidence.
• Multiple comparisons create a risk of chance findings.
• The Daily Bias Score is modeled context, not expected return or probability.
• Strong Bullish / Strong Bearish classifications can be incorrect.
• Sample depth is limited by available chart history.
• Low-timeframe charts may contain relatively few completed trading days.
• Volatility adjustment can react slowly to sudden regime changes.
• Historical quantiles are not fixed future boundaries.
• Prior-day high / low breaks can fail after occurring.
• Session attribution uses fixed UTC hours and does not dynamically adjust for daylight-saving changes.
• Extended-hours data can influence calculations where available.
• High / low timing is limited by chart timeframe resolution.
• Holiday and shortened-session days are treated as normal completed trading days.
• Current-day values remain provisional until the trading day completes.
• Different feeds, symbols, chart history, and timeframes can produce different statistics.

The indicator should be treated as a statistical context tool rather than a standalone predictive system.

Daily Bias Intelligence may be useful for traders who:

• want historical daily context before evaluating intraday setups
• study weekday tendencies
• want sample sizes beside historical percentages
• prefer statistical filtering over raw percentages alone
• study prior-day highs and lows
• monitor daily-range development
• study when final daily highs and lows tend to form
• compare the current stage of the day with completed historical observations
• want directional context without automatic trade entries
• want historical expected-range information
• value calibration and transparent statistical assumptions

It may be less suitable for users who require automatic entries, automatic SL/TP systems, broker execution, tick-level reconstruction, account-level Strategy Tester results, or guaranteed directional predictions.

For normal use:

• start with sufficient completed-day history
• keep Minimum Sample high enough that thin observations do not dominate interpretation
• compare weekday percentages with the ALL baseline
• read the Daily Bias Score together with the individual radar checks
• distinguish directional lean from a Strong Bullish / Strong Bearish state
• interpret statistical significance as evidence strength, not certainty
• treat expected ranges as historical distributions rather than fixed price barriers
• use NOW as live context rather than a standalone signal
• combine prior-day level statistics with current price behavior
• review CALLS versus drift rather than raw hit rate alone
• wait for meaningful calibration samples before drawing conclusions
• compare symbols and timeframes independently

When testing inputs, change one major group at a time so the effect on sample size, bias classification, expected range, and calibration remains understandable.

Daily Bias Intelligence [tradewsamet] is published as an educational daily-statistics, historical-bias, intraday-context, expected-range, calibration, visualization, and alert indicator.

This description documents the main mechanics used by the script, including:

• completed-day historical storage
• weekday analysis
• previous-day and three-day context
• recent directional behavior
• Move Skew
• statistical filtering
• Daily Bias Score
• strong-bias classification
• expected weekday distributions
• volatility adjustment
• same-time-of-day analysis
• prior-day high / low behavior
• high / low timing
• streak and range analysis
• session attribution
• sequential calibration
• visualizations and alerts

These modules serve one coordinated purpose:

providing a transparent statistical description of the current trading day based primarily on completed historical observations.

The script does not promise profitable results, remove market risk, or replace independent analysis and personal risk management.

Daily Bias Intelligence v1.0 builds its principal historical model from completed trading days.

A trading day is finalized when the script detects the beginning of the next trading day.

The previous day's completed data is then added to the historical dataset.

The current day's:

• radar checks
• Daily Bias Score
• strong historical-bias classification
• weekday distributions
• expected range
• expected absolute movement
• historical session averages

are rebuilt from completed historical observations.

The v1.0 daily model does not use a higher-timeframe request.security() feed or future-data lookahead process for these calculations.

Some values are intentionally developing realtime values and can change while today's market develops:

• today's return versus the prior close
• today's high and low
• today's range and range usage
• NOW-card state
• today's high/low session labels
• live day box
• contextual candle coloring

This is normal current-day development and should not be confused with using future historical information.

Prior-day high / low breaks require a confirmed chart bar before they are finalized.

Completed daily-result labels are created only after the corresponding trading day completes.

High / low timing stores the first chart bar that produced the observed extreme, so precision depends on the active timeframe.

Historical calculations can legitimately change when the symbol, timeframe, data feed, available history, Lookback, Volatility Length, Recent Window, Minimum Sample, or Return Units change.

During historical warm-up, the model grows as completed trading days accumulate.

No strong daily classification is permitted until the required warm-up has been satisfied.

These controls reduce hindsight risk in the primary historical model but do not eliminate market uncertainty, regime change, sampling risk, statistical error, or data-feed differences.

Daily Bias Intelligence [tradewsamet] is provided for educational and informational purposes only.

It does not constitute financial, investment, trading, legal, accounting, or tax advice.

Historical rates, Wilson intervals, statistical classifications, Move Skew, Daily Bias Scores, Strong Bullish / Strong Bearish states, weekday ranges, expected movement, session statistics, prior-day levels, calibration results, visualizations, and alerts are analytical outputs only.

No indicator can guarantee future market direction or profitability.

Historical relationships can weaken, disappear, or reverse as volatility, liquidity, market structure, participation, macroeconomic conditions, market regimes, and data characteristics change.

Every user remains responsible for independent analysis, validation, symbol and timeframe selection, settings, position sizing, account risk, execution planning, broker execution, alert configuration, and applicable legal or tax obligations.

Use Daily Bias Intelligence as a transparent daily statistical-context and historical-review framework — not as a promise of profitability or a substitute for independent judgment.