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GDR Arbitrage Analysis (CBKDL/COMI)
Evaluating the arbitrage or price discrepancy between local shares and Global Depositary Receipts (GDRs) is a standard practice to gauge market sentiment and currency expectations.
the equation CBKDL * USDEGP - COMI
CBKDL (GDR Price): London Stock Exchange in USD
USDEGP: (Bank rate/Market rate)
GX:COMI: Local EGX price
GDR Ratio 1:1 (1 GDR = 1 Ordinary Share)
If the result is Positive (+): The GDR is trading at a premium.
This often suggests that international investors expect the EGP to devalue further or that there is high demand for the stock that cannot be met locally.
If the result is Negative (-): The local stock is trading at a premium (GDR is at a discount).
This suggests that local buying pressure is currently stronger than international appetite, or that the local market has already "priced in" a higher value than what the global market is currently reflecting.
Market Insight
Historically, a negative spread in this equation (where COMI > CBKDL converted) can happen during periods of local market rallies or when liquidity in London is thin. If you see this negative spread widening significantly, it may suggest that the local price is overextended in the short term, or that the "implied" exchange rate in the stock market is slightly higher than the official rate you are using in your formula.
Sector Context: As the heavy-lifter of the EGX30, COMI’s movement often dictates the direction of the entire index. Tracking this spread is vital for understanding foreign institutional flows, as these investors often arbitrage between the two listings.
🟢 Green Bars: GDR Premium — International investors are paying more via London GDR than the local EGX price implies. Signals foreign institutional bullishness or hedging against EGP devaluation.
🔴 Red Bars: Local Premium — Local EGX price exceeds the GDR-implied fair value. Signals stronger local buying pressure or international outflows from the GDR.
The indicator is flexible: if you want to analyze other Egyptian GDRs (like ETEL, EFID, or others), just change the symbol inputs in the indicator settings without editing code.
the equation CBKDL * USDEGP - COMI
CBKDL (GDR Price): London Stock Exchange in USD
USDEGP: (Bank rate/Market rate)
GX:COMI: Local EGX price
GDR Ratio 1:1 (1 GDR = 1 Ordinary Share)
If the result is Positive (+): The GDR is trading at a premium.
This often suggests that international investors expect the EGP to devalue further or that there is high demand for the stock that cannot be met locally.
If the result is Negative (-): The local stock is trading at a premium (GDR is at a discount).
This suggests that local buying pressure is currently stronger than international appetite, or that the local market has already "priced in" a higher value than what the global market is currently reflecting.
Market Insight
Historically, a negative spread in this equation (where COMI > CBKDL converted) can happen during periods of local market rallies or when liquidity in London is thin. If you see this negative spread widening significantly, it may suggest that the local price is overextended in the short term, or that the "implied" exchange rate in the stock market is slightly higher than the official rate you are using in your formula.
Sector Context: As the heavy-lifter of the EGX30, COMI’s movement often dictates the direction of the entire index. Tracking this spread is vital for understanding foreign institutional flows, as these investors often arbitrage between the two listings.
🟢 Green Bars: GDR Premium — International investors are paying more via London GDR than the local EGX price implies. Signals foreign institutional bullishness or hedging against EGP devaluation.
🔴 Red Bars: Local Premium — Local EGX price exceeds the GDR-implied fair value. Signals stronger local buying pressure or international outflows from the GDR.
The indicator is flexible: if you want to analyze other Egyptian GDRs (like ETEL, EFID, or others), just change the symbol inputs in the indicator settings without editing code.
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開源腳本
秉持TradingView一貫精神，這個腳本的創作者將其設為開源，以便交易者檢視並驗證其功能。向作者致敬！您可以免費使用此腳本，但請注意，重新發佈代碼需遵守我們的社群規範。
免責聲明
這些資訊和出版物並非旨在提供，也不構成TradingView提供或認可的任何形式的財務、投資、交易或其他類型的建議或推薦。請閱讀使用條款以了解更多資訊。