OPEN-SOURCE SCRIPT
已更新 VIX Dispersion Overlay Thrasher
VIX Dispersion Signal [Thrasher]
Identifies conditions that historically precede large volatility spikes, based on the methodology published by Andrew Thrasher CMT in Forecasting a Volatility Tsunami (Journal of Technical Analysis, Q4 2017).
Core concept
Rather than treating a low VIX as a sell signal, Thrasher found that the strongest warning comes from measuring the dispersion of the VIX itself — its 20-day standard deviation. When the VIX stops moving and trades in an unusually narrow range, volatility is coiling. The same logic applied to the VVIX (the volatility of the VIX) improves timing further. When both compress simultaneously, the historical record shows a clear edge: nearly every combined signal was followed by a 30%+ VIX spike within 15 trading days, with an average maximum move of +27.5%.
Signal states
🟢 Risk On — both readings above threshold, normal conditions
🟡 Caution — VIX dispersion compressed (≤ 0.86), tighten stops
🟡 Warning — VVIX dispersion compressed (≤ 3.16), reduce exposure
🔴 Tsunami Alert — both thresholds breached simultaneously, raise cash
🔴 Compound Danger — Tsunami Alert firing while VIX is also sub-15, highest historical risk
What's plotted
The overlay script colours your price chart background and marks signal bars with directional triangles. The companion pane script plots the two StdDev lines against their threshold levels, with a scaled VIX level in the background for low-VIX context. A live status table shows current readings for VIX SD, VVIX SD, VIX level, VVIX level, VIX term structure spread (VIX3M − VIX), and days since last signal.
Inputs
All thresholds are adjustable. Thrasher's original values (VIX SD ≤ 0.86, VVIX SD ≤ 3.16) represent the 15th percentile of each series from 2006–2016. A de-clustering filter suppresses repeat signals within a configurable lookback window.
Usage
Add both scripts to any SPX, SPY, or equity index chart on the daily timeframe. Data is sourced directly from CBOE:VIX, CBOE:VVIX, and CBOE:VIX3M via request.security regardless of chart symbol. Five alert conditions are included: combined signal, compound danger, VIX-only, VVIX-only, and the most extreme case — combined signal with simultaneous VIX term structure backwardation.
Reference
Thrasher, A. (2017). Forecasting a Volatility Tsunami. Journal of Technical Analysis, Q4 2017. Thresholds and signal definitions are implemented as described in the original paper and have not been curve-fitted to subsequent data.
Identifies conditions that historically precede large volatility spikes, based on the methodology published by Andrew Thrasher CMT in Forecasting a Volatility Tsunami (Journal of Technical Analysis, Q4 2017).
Core concept
Rather than treating a low VIX as a sell signal, Thrasher found that the strongest warning comes from measuring the dispersion of the VIX itself — its 20-day standard deviation. When the VIX stops moving and trades in an unusually narrow range, volatility is coiling. The same logic applied to the VVIX (the volatility of the VIX) improves timing further. When both compress simultaneously, the historical record shows a clear edge: nearly every combined signal was followed by a 30%+ VIX spike within 15 trading days, with an average maximum move of +27.5%.
Signal states
🟢 Risk On — both readings above threshold, normal conditions
🟡 Caution — VIX dispersion compressed (≤ 0.86), tighten stops
🟡 Warning — VVIX dispersion compressed (≤ 3.16), reduce exposure
🔴 Tsunami Alert — both thresholds breached simultaneously, raise cash
🔴 Compound Danger — Tsunami Alert firing while VIX is also sub-15, highest historical risk
What's plotted
The overlay script colours your price chart background and marks signal bars with directional triangles. The companion pane script plots the two StdDev lines against their threshold levels, with a scaled VIX level in the background for low-VIX context. A live status table shows current readings for VIX SD, VVIX SD, VIX level, VVIX level, VIX term structure spread (VIX3M − VIX), and days since last signal.
Inputs
All thresholds are adjustable. Thrasher's original values (VIX SD ≤ 0.86, VVIX SD ≤ 3.16) represent the 15th percentile of each series from 2006–2016. A de-clustering filter suppresses repeat signals within a configurable lookback window.
Usage
Add both scripts to any SPX, SPY, or equity index chart on the daily timeframe. Data is sourced directly from CBOE:VIX, CBOE:VVIX, and CBOE:VIX3M via request.security regardless of chart symbol. Five alert conditions are included: combined signal, compound danger, VIX-only, VVIX-only, and the most extreme case — combined signal with simultaneous VIX term structure backwardation.
Reference
Thrasher, A. (2017). Forecasting a Volatility Tsunami. Journal of Technical Analysis, Q4 2017. Thresholds and signal definitions are implemented as described in the original paper and have not been curve-fitted to subsequent data.
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開源腳本
秉持TradingView一貫精神，這個腳本的創作者將其設為開源，以便交易者檢視並驗證其功能。向作者致敬！您可以免費使用此腳本，但請注意，重新發佈代碼需遵守我們的社群規範。
免責聲明
這些資訊和出版物並非旨在提供，也不構成TradingView提供或認可的任何形式的財務、投資、交易或其他類型的建議或推薦。請閱讀使用條款以了解更多資訊。