Skew MTF Trend + Regime (fork)
Skew MTF Trend + Regime, a fork of "Skew MTF Trend" by Skew (@52kskew), used with credit. All original trend logic is his; this version adds one column.
What's added: a "Regime" dot next to each timeframe's direction arrow, describing the character of the move right now:
- green = ORDERLY (clean move)
- amber = CHOPPY (volatility expanding)
- red = WHIPSAW (volatility spiking, MA read noisy)
How: per timeframe, ratio of short- to long-window realized volatility: stdev(log returns, 5) / stdev(log returns, 30). Above 1.4 = amber, above 2.0 = red.
What it is / isn't: it describes how the trend is behaving, not where price goes next. It is not a buy/sell signal, and it has no predictive edge (tested on BTC daily, it does not call tops or bottoms). Treat it as situational awareness: orderly vs choppy.
Note: the table reflects the developing higher-timeframe bar, so the current cell updates until that bar closes (same behavior as the underlying trend arrows).
Original:
What's added: a "Regime" dot next to each timeframe's direction arrow, describing the character of the move right now:
- green = ORDERLY (clean move)
- amber = CHOPPY (volatility expanding)
- red = WHIPSAW (volatility spiking, MA read noisy)
How: per timeframe, ratio of short- to long-window realized volatility: stdev(log returns, 5) / stdev(log returns, 30). Above 1.4 = amber, above 2.0 = red.
What it is / isn't: it describes how the trend is behaving, not where price goes next. It is not a buy/sell signal, and it has no predictive edge (tested on BTC daily, it does not call tops or bottoms). Treat it as situational awareness: orderly vs choppy.
Note: the table reflects the developing higher-timeframe bar, so the current cell updates until that bar closes (same behavior as the underlying trend arrows).
Original:
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