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Crisis indicator
What This Indicator Does
This indicator acts as an early warning system for potential market crises by tracking 5 of the most reliable financial danger signals that have predicted major market declines throughout history.
The 5 Crisis Signals Monitored
1. Yield Curve Inversion
- What it measures: When short-term interest rates become higher than long-term rates
- Why it matters: This has predicted every US recession since 1955
- Trigger: Yield curve drops below your set threshold (default: 0.0)
2. Shiller CAPE Ratio
- What it measures: Stock market valuation adjusted for economic cycles
- Why it matters: Only exceeded 30 during major bubbles (1929, 2000, 2021) - all followed by crashes
- Trigger: CAPE ratio rises above your threshold (default: 30.0)
3. Buffett Indicator
- What it measures: Total stock market value compared to GDP
- Why it matters: Warren Buffett's favorite market valuation gauge
- Trigger: Ratio exceeds your threshold (default: 180%)
4. VIX Complacency
- What it measures: Market fear gauge (Volatility Index)
- Why it matters: Extremely low VIX indicates investor complacency before storms
- Trigger: VIX falls below your threshold (default: 15.0)
5. SPX Extreme Deviation
- What it measures: How far S&P 500 is above its 200-week moving average
- Why it matters: Major tops in 1929, 2000, 2021 all showed extreme deviations
- Trigger: Deviation exceeds your threshold (default: 2.8 standard deviations)
How to Read the Results
The Yellow Line (0-5 Scale)
- Shows how many of the 5 danger signals are currently active
- 0-1: Normal market conditions
- 2: High Risk - Caution advised
- 3+: Crisis Cluster - High probability of market decline
The Information Table
- Shows exactly which signals are triggering
- Displays current values for each indicator
- Color-coded status (Green = Safe, Red = Danger)
Historical Performance
When 3+ indicators flash simultaneously:
- 1999-2000: Preceded Dot-com crash (-49% SPX)
- 2007: Preceded Financial Crisis (-57% SPX)
- 2021: Preceded 2022 bear market (-25% SPX)
This indicator acts as an early warning system for potential market crises by tracking 5 of the most reliable financial danger signals that have predicted major market declines throughout history.
The 5 Crisis Signals Monitored
1. Yield Curve Inversion
- What it measures: When short-term interest rates become higher than long-term rates
- Why it matters: This has predicted every US recession since 1955
- Trigger: Yield curve drops below your set threshold (default: 0.0)
2. Shiller CAPE Ratio
- What it measures: Stock market valuation adjusted for economic cycles
- Why it matters: Only exceeded 30 during major bubbles (1929, 2000, 2021) - all followed by crashes
- Trigger: CAPE ratio rises above your threshold (default: 30.0)
3. Buffett Indicator
- What it measures: Total stock market value compared to GDP
- Why it matters: Warren Buffett's favorite market valuation gauge
- Trigger: Ratio exceeds your threshold (default: 180%)
4. VIX Complacency
- What it measures: Market fear gauge (Volatility Index)
- Why it matters: Extremely low VIX indicates investor complacency before storms
- Trigger: VIX falls below your threshold (default: 15.0)
5. SPX Extreme Deviation
- What it measures: How far S&P 500 is above its 200-week moving average
- Why it matters: Major tops in 1929, 2000, 2021 all showed extreme deviations
- Trigger: Deviation exceeds your threshold (default: 2.8 standard deviations)
How to Read the Results
The Yellow Line (0-5 Scale)
- Shows how many of the 5 danger signals are currently active
- 0-1: Normal market conditions
- 2: High Risk - Caution advised
- 3+: Crisis Cluster - High probability of market decline
The Information Table
- Shows exactly which signals are triggering
- Displays current values for each indicator
- Color-coded status (Green = Safe, Red = Danger)
Historical Performance
When 3+ indicators flash simultaneously:
- 1999-2000: Preceded Dot-com crash (-49% SPX)
- 2007: Preceded Financial Crisis (-57% SPX)
- 2021: Preceded 2022 bear market (-25% SPX)
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免責聲明
這些資訊和出版物並非旨在提供，也不構成TradingView提供或認可的任何形式的財務、投資、交易或其他類型的建議或推薦。請閱讀使用條款以了解更多資訊。